And it shows a worst-case scenario for NOLA now. Scary. scenario could flood the West Bank. Let's hope it changes with new data. I'm sure it will.
BULLSEYE! Thanks John. This is why I'm so frustrated with a certain local met. I'm not going to name any names, but I'm positive 99% of the members here know who I'm talking about.
We know EXACTLY whom you're talking about! To quote him from the other night: I believe in conserving energy for when you need it, and right now you DON'T need it! People are getting waaay too excited about this. He really shouldn't be on the air. I don't want him to get people all excited, but I do want the straight facts and certainly the NHC's prediction ALONG with his thoughts. It wasn't even mentioned the other night! He has never recovered from the Lili debacle.
The TCVN is a consensus model based off of several other models. The NHC track has kind of been following it around. Last night, it was in the vicinity of New Iberia. The 12z appears to have come back east a bit.
LsuKev initially said things had gone west...it appears he corrected it.
Right...and the TVCN is the model the NHC seems to be following the closest this season. I believe it took the spot of the CONU model.
The TVCN (correct me if I'm wrong) is a consensus of the GFDL, HWRF, GFS, and NOGAPS. Therefore, if the NGPS shifts 400 miles east, the TVCN would probably follow.
I wonder if the percentage of each model for the TVCN is set, or whether they manipulate it, because the GFS is really trash with this storm (and in general for tropical heat handoff....) and definitely has a historical right bias in general....
That NOGAPS type path would be very dangerous IMO, because I think you'd get even more of this "Good it's going to TX" thinking, and then a little change in direction and S LA gets slammed by the right front quadrant.
Yes, I agree with you, campbreeze.
Remmie what Katrina did to MS coast and Mobile, AL when K made her landfall in Slidell, LA...
:o Water rose around the Arthur Outlaw Mobile Convention Center in the bkgd in downtown Mobile, AL, as Hurricane Katrina hit LA/MS state line, 100 miles away, on Monday, August. 29, 2005.
That map above with the latest spaghetti plots are going to be horrible for Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes. We are boarding up tonight, getting our generator ready and stocking up on supplies. Not sure if we are going to ride this one out here or leave.
So at this point I am really confused, last night Bob breck said we're just about clear he doesn't see a major threat to New Orleans, this morning Chan. 6 said is going south far away from us, Tx./Mex. hit. Then i log on and read these post. My question is are we out of a direct hit to the mouth of the Mississippi River? Is New Orleans safe ? should I tell my mother I.m heading to Texas for a visit? HELP ME UNDERSTAND PLEASE!!!!!!!!!