I really need this stupid storm to stay east of us. I'm putting off making a decision about my company until the morning. My office isn't far at all from the lake in Mandeville. I'm not concerned about wind or water, I'm concerned about power. If I don't have power at the office, I cannot operate. I live just south of I-12 in Madisonville and so my plan A is to have my "hurricane crew" come here to work assuming I keep power and my plan B is to head to Lafayette. Obviously the further I have to go, the bigger chance I face of disruption and interruption of business. BIG SIGH....I hate this crap.
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Post by hurricaner on Aug 26, 2012 15:02:45 GMT -6
Isaac now going WNW at 295deg. so more westward motion.
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
Excellent job at the press conference by Jindal. Although he can irk me sometimes, when there is a storm threatening LA, there's no one I want in the Governor's chair more than he. He knows how to work problems like this.
"My name is Jim, but my friends call me...............Jim."
Post by cplay12671 on Aug 26, 2012 15:05:48 GMT -6
OHHH BOB, he just thinks this is not a big deal at all, he say he is going with his VIPR model, Why does he say that knowing that it is not a good tropical model and knowing all of the other models are west of his VIPR............
Swarm of over 50 earthquakes is ongoing in S. California near the Salton Sea. Most were minor; largest was 5.3 in San Diego.. Wow...
Back to Isaac....
Thank God for St. Charles for closing schools Mon-Wed and letting us get out of dodge. Because of that, we are leaving tonight. Will be going to Lafayette. I know it's in the path per GFS but that's where I made ressies and that's where my son is. Hotel is 43' above sea level, no trees, near banks, walmart, walgreens, and my daughter's favorite: Starbucks!
Know we're likely to get bad weather and wind....just running from water. Slosh model for my area is 10' for a slow moving Category 2....
Yall be safe everyone...
Slosh showed 18' in Ama for Gustav, never materialized and we had a harrowing Gustav evacuation. We are staying put for this one. Sturdy brink house with escape hatch roof on second floor. Water, groceries, and generator. We are good to go!
If I were in Ama, I'd might stay too. But I'm in Willowdale and my husband is leaving town for who knows how long. I'm not gonna stay in this house with just me and my daughter and my dog with water coming up behind me... we already have standing water just now in woods behind us.
Interesting that they do not forecast it to become a hurricane until tomorrow night, I guess they think all the dry air to the SW of the system will keep him at Bay until the dry air mixes out, heck, it may only be a Cat 1 at landfall if the dry air does not leave.