2017 Atlantic Discussion Thread #1
Apr 22, 2017 11:56:55 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT, Briella - Houma, and 2 more like this
Post by kennethb on Apr 22, 2017 11:56:55 GMT -6
I was fortunate to be able to attend the 2017 National Hurricane Conference this past week at the Hyatt Regency in New Orleans.
There were many different areas and topics of discussion including Emergency Management, Recovery, Rescue as well as Meteorology.
I attended mostly Meteorology type sessions.
Several of the sessions involved Matthew including forecasting, tracking, evacuation, and media coverage.
Brought out was the historical flooding of Matthew especially on the northwest side. Discussion here and in other sessions included the historical flooding here in Louisiana.
It was mentioned that there is an excessive rainfall outlooks posted. But it was suggested that some other type of warning could be issued for these events.
Phil Klotzbach gave a very good presentation on CSU forecast as well as looking back at previous years. He gave tribute to Dr. Gray and cited him throughout.
Very good history of satellites. First time a photo was taken from space was 1946. GOES R is being tested. We should be able to see some of its information this season. A decision on which GOES it will replace will be made in May.
In one session with Bryan Norcross and Rick Knabb, one lady pointed out that she is flying out on Thursday. The Weather Channel says 80% of strong storms, while local forecast says only 20%. This drew good chuckles among the crowd.
A good session on Hurricane Andrew. Bryan Norcross was the first at his local TV station in S. Florida to use a type of cone. Japan uses a cone without points or black line. Lots of talk about not focusing on the black line.
A session out public outreach was good. A girl from New York is in charge of outreach on hurricanes, floods, and winter storms. She has created a superhero/comic called Ready Girl with a professionally done costume and cape. She even went to schools in New Orleans this past week. Marvel has made a comic book of Ready Girl. She gave copies of her comic book and signed mine.
A session was held on the 1947 hurricane. David Bernard showed a graphic of the number of Cat 3 and above storms from 1880s to present that have come within 30 miles of New Orleans . If I recall he indicated 6. 1947 storm was only a Cat 2 but caused major flooding which resulted in the levees along Lake Pontchartrain.
At the general session I sat on the front row. I had Max Mayfield, Bill Read, and Neil Frank standing just feet from me cutting up some.
Mayor Mitch Landrieu gave a good speech at the general session.
Thursday brought 4 sessions from the forecasters from the NHC including Robbie Berg, James Franklin, Michael Brennan, and Daniel Brown.
Discussion included new products such as wind forecasts, model upgrade/changes, storm surge, warnings before formation etc.
None could answer my question about what impact Nicole might have had on the eventual track of Matthew.
In the model discussion, forecasters acknowledged that they will make only small changes in tracks even if models suggest larger changes.
They prefer to see ensembles clusters not tightly together.
On the spaghetti models, they said to be careful as Euro, Ukmet, and other ensembles are not included in the spaghetti models, but are used by the NHC for their track.
Had personal conversations with David Bernard, the above forecasters, Phil, Max, and Neil as well as Bob Breck.
Did I say do not focus on the black line? (yes I did, but that was emphasized so I say it again).
You can be in a hurricane warning and not have storm surge forecasted. Or you can NOT be in a hurricane warning and be in a storm surge forecast.
Despite a general lower than normal season it only takes 1.
There were many different areas and topics of discussion including Emergency Management, Recovery, Rescue as well as Meteorology.
I attended mostly Meteorology type sessions.
Several of the sessions involved Matthew including forecasting, tracking, evacuation, and media coverage.
Brought out was the historical flooding of Matthew especially on the northwest side. Discussion here and in other sessions included the historical flooding here in Louisiana.
It was mentioned that there is an excessive rainfall outlooks posted. But it was suggested that some other type of warning could be issued for these events.
Phil Klotzbach gave a very good presentation on CSU forecast as well as looking back at previous years. He gave tribute to Dr. Gray and cited him throughout.
Very good history of satellites. First time a photo was taken from space was 1946. GOES R is being tested. We should be able to see some of its information this season. A decision on which GOES it will replace will be made in May.
In one session with Bryan Norcross and Rick Knabb, one lady pointed out that she is flying out on Thursday. The Weather Channel says 80% of strong storms, while local forecast says only 20%. This drew good chuckles among the crowd.
A good session on Hurricane Andrew. Bryan Norcross was the first at his local TV station in S. Florida to use a type of cone. Japan uses a cone without points or black line. Lots of talk about not focusing on the black line.
A session out public outreach was good. A girl from New York is in charge of outreach on hurricanes, floods, and winter storms. She has created a superhero/comic called Ready Girl with a professionally done costume and cape. She even went to schools in New Orleans this past week. Marvel has made a comic book of Ready Girl. She gave copies of her comic book and signed mine.
A session was held on the 1947 hurricane. David Bernard showed a graphic of the number of Cat 3 and above storms from 1880s to present that have come within 30 miles of New Orleans . If I recall he indicated 6. 1947 storm was only a Cat 2 but caused major flooding which resulted in the levees along Lake Pontchartrain.
At the general session I sat on the front row. I had Max Mayfield, Bill Read, and Neil Frank standing just feet from me cutting up some.
Mayor Mitch Landrieu gave a good speech at the general session.
Thursday brought 4 sessions from the forecasters from the NHC including Robbie Berg, James Franklin, Michael Brennan, and Daniel Brown.
Discussion included new products such as wind forecasts, model upgrade/changes, storm surge, warnings before formation etc.
None could answer my question about what impact Nicole might have had on the eventual track of Matthew.
In the model discussion, forecasters acknowledged that they will make only small changes in tracks even if models suggest larger changes.
They prefer to see ensembles clusters not tightly together.
On the spaghetti models, they said to be careful as Euro, Ukmet, and other ensembles are not included in the spaghetti models, but are used by the NHC for their track.
Had personal conversations with David Bernard, the above forecasters, Phil, Max, and Neil as well as Bob Breck.
Did I say do not focus on the black line? (yes I did, but that was emphasized so I say it again).
You can be in a hurricane warning and not have storm surge forecasted. Or you can NOT be in a hurricane warning and be in a storm surge forecast.
Despite a general lower than normal season it only takes 1.