The stout ridging pattern over the NW Atlantic into the NE US/SE Canada is no joke, it has been on place more often than not during the past month, after the shortwave trough passes by this weekend to the north of Florence the stout ridge pattern will immediately go back in place. Florence will have no option but to keep tracking closer to the eastern US.
Ndg, as both of us are in Florida, what are the chances of the high building in stronger then models show and it comming over florida?
There's a possibility of that happening but is fairly low at this time, only a few handful of the Euro ensembles are showing that but we know that the Euro has been a bit west biased, at this time the TVCN consensus model is the best guidance to follow.
Looks like the EURO ensembles are starting to include more southerly options. Of course, the vast majority of them are still pointing to the east coast from South Carolina northward but the inclusion of more southerly components into the Gulf do raise my eyebrow. If that ridge strengthens or moves westward we're all going to be model watching every 12 hours.