The GFS is the only model now not showing at least some form of development.
EURO, after losing it for a day or so, now brings a borderline hurricane towards LA then turns NE. The signal from the EURO ensembles is even stronger.
All other models go from LA to FL.
Its replacement, FV3, has been showing development all along but near Jamaica like the Euro was showing initially but looking at the latest run it is trending in dropping that idea and come along with the Euro of development in the NW Caribbean from the current broad low pressure. It never fails how models struggle with monsoonal gyres every time.
Personally I like the Euro with a tropical system initially headed towards LA and then going NE towards FL and finally ushering in fall weather. Though as stubborn as this ridge has been we cannot let our guard down.
EURO usually is to "right sided" biased initially with it's track. However, historically speaking storms that form in the area of the Carribean typically traverse to the east of LA towards Florida, to which most EURO ensembles currently show.
However, we do not yet have anything formed in the area of interest for models to get a good grasp on things.
If anything were to form, we're looking for late next week or weekend timeframe
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I am thinking it will likely go east of us towards Florida. Cold front to save the day.
Climo would say that but climo would also say we would have our first front by now. The pattern doesn't translate to a hard right turn unless it takes forever to get out of the Caribbean.
Yeah I know. Guess just hoping because I have a family reunion in Grand Isle and will be there from the 12-14th. Was really looking forward to it and having one last beach day. Even if it goes east gulf will prob be too dangerous to get in.