A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
The same Euro shows one heck of a sheared system as it tracks across the GOM, I don't know what the ensemble members that are showing it to be a hurricane looking at the UL conditions if the Operational shows so much shear.
Edit: I guess timing will be everything depending with the trough next week coming across the western US, it could either help the system or make it impossible for it to strengthen much.