The reason this could very well be a northern gulf coast threat vs a FL Peninsula threat, one heck of an unusual strong mid level ridge near the Mid Atlantic states for this time of the year thanks to a persistent +NAO pattern.
A lot of mid level vorticities rotating around the monsoonal gyre, including 97E. Things usually take longer to consolidate with these big C.A. monsoonal lows and models always struggle with it, never fails. One thing to keep in mind is that the longer it takes to consolidate and start moving northward towards the GOM the east coast ridge may start breaking down by then so a more eastward track towards the FL Panhandle could be possible, but who knows at this time.
I still this will go east of our area. Esp if it takes longer to consolidate. Gives more time for the ridge to break down. Looks like a front will finally happen around next Monday. Temps look to drop to the upper 70's for highs versus upper 80's.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.