The last couple HRRR runs it has backed away with the idea of super cells ahead of main line which has it arriving SW LA before midnight, instead it has the super cells developing over SE LA before sunrise ahead of it.
What does the possibility of hail look like for the BR metro area? Is it increasing or staying the same?
I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL - ALL OF MY POSTS ARE BASED ON MY OPINIONS ONLY.
Mesoscale Discussion 1601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Areas affected...parts of east to eastern Texas and far western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311914Z - 312145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity by late afternoon across central into east-central Texas, continuing into western Louisiana after 9-10 pm. Damaging winds will be possible initially, with a couple tornadoes increasingly possible through the night.
DISCUSSION...An axis of substantial moisture and instability currently stretches from Deep South TX northward to an approaching cold front. Lift is increasing across the region in association with a leading shortwave trough, with an abrupt wind shift noted above the surface at the DFX VWP. Lift is strongest where this feature intersects the surface front, currently over central TX where a cluster of elevated storms exists.
With time, storms should increase in intensity as they translate southeastward. Severe wind is possible as storms become more linear in a few hours. Veering winds above the surface will mitigate SRH and tornado threat for western parts of the discussion area. However, a tornado threat may eventually materialized over eastern areas.
For southeastern TX into LA, early-day convection has left relatively cool air across the Houston area where showers persist. Area VWPs show marginally favorable wind profiles for supercells, which should get better with time as both the low-level jet and winds aloft increase. Here, effective SRH around 200-300 should develop this evening. As a result, a few storms near the upper TX coast toward southwest LA may become supercells, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, a burst of new development may occur immediately ahead of any approaching squall line from the west, with tornado threat.
Winter 2018/2019 Number of Freezes: 9 CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11 NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight...
* LOCATIONS... Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi East Texas
* HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds Isolated large hail
* SUMMARY... The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight.
Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
Almost every parish in Acadiana is anticipating the severe weather heading to the area. Below is a list of parishes where schools have announced closures or late start times Wednesday. All closures/late starts will be for Thursday, November 1, 2018.
Iberia Parish Iberia Parish public schools will be closed Thursday in anticipation for severe weather. 12-month employees should report to work at 9:00 a.m.
Other Iberia Parish school closures include:
Catholic High in New Iberia will have a late start to school tomorrow morning. Take-in will begin at 8:50 a.m. with first period starting at 9:00 a.m.
Highland Baptist Christian School
Vermilion Parish Vermilion Parish public schools will be closed Thursday in anticipation for severe weather.
Other school closures in Vermilion Parish:
All Vermilion Parish Head Start Centers and Central Offices will close on November 1, 2018.
St. Landry Parish St. Landry Parish public schools will be delaying the start time of school by an hour. Dismissal will be at the normal time.
St. Mary Parish St. Mary Parish public schools will be closed on Thursday, November 1, 2018.
Other school closures in St. Mary Parish:
VB Glencoe Charter School
All St. Mary Head Start Centers and Central Offices
St. Martin Parish New Beginning Academy in Breaux Bridge will be closed Thursday.
Lafayette Parish Lafayette Parish public schools will be closed Thursday in anticipation for severe weather.
All Catholic schools in Lafayette Parish will be closed tomorrow.
LPSS officials say that the decision was made because of the threat of anticipated severe weather and possibly local flooding as school buses begin bringing students to schools.
The LPSS Central Office also will be closed tomorrow.
Other Lafayette Parish school closures include:
Lafayette Christian Academy
Lafayette Renaissance Charter Academy
Acadiana Renaissance Charter Academy
Gethsemane Christian Academy
Gethsemane LaPetite Early Childhood Development Center
For My Child Learning Center in Lafayette
Willow Charter Academy in Lafayette
St. Cecilia in Broussard
United Christian Academy
First Baptist Christian School in downtown Lafayette
Youngsville Christian School
Truman Daycare and Learning Center
Principal’s List Preschool (Lafayette and Youngsville locations)
CDI Head Start Lafayette centers: Alexander, Holy Rosary, Holy Family, Lafayette Early HS, Louisiana Avenue Early HS, St. Christopher A, St. Christopher B, St. Joseph
Learning Express Child Development Center
Kids Only 2 and 3
All three campuses of Ascension Episcopal School will be closed tomorrow. In addition, all parent/teacher conferences will be canceled and rescheduled for a later date.
St. Charles Parish St. Charles schools will operate on a three-hour delay start time. Buses will begin picking up students 40 minutes after the start times listed below:
10:10 a.m. – 2:225 p.m. for:
10:55 a.m. - 3:05 p.m. for:
11:45 a.m. - 3:45 p.m. for:
Catholic Schools will take in 3 hours late
Tangipahoa Parish Tangipahoa Parish schools will be on a two-hour delayed start Thursday morning for start times, bus ties and parent drop off times.
"If your school takes in at 8 a.m., on Thursday, Nov. 1, that campus will take in at 10 a.m., and all associated school arrival times-whether it be the time your bus typically arrives to pick up the child or the time that you are able to personally drop off your child at school-will all be delayed by two hours," school officials say.
The delayed start will not impact dismissal, which will take place at regular time at every school across the parish.
St. John Parish St. John the Baptist Parish Public Schools will be on a three-hour delayed start time.
Catholic Schools in St. John Parish will follow suit
Washington Parish Washington Parish public and Catholic schools will start at 10 a.m. Thursday
Northshore Charter School will start school at 10 a.m. Buses will begin to run at 9 a.m. Car riders may be dropped off at 9:45 a.m.
Orleans Parish Foundation Preparatory Charter School will start school at noon. Bus pickup time will be delayed by three hours from students' regularly scheduled pickup time.