Daily Winter Weather Discussion Thread #25

500 mb heights are not right just yet for sustained cold down here. Both Euro and GEFS ensemble 500 mb still suggest more optimum height rises over Alaska, Greenland, and over the pole could set up towards the end of the month. Right on time for the climatology coldest and "snowiest" averages for us, the first two weeks of February. Be patient.  Besides Wilson (see photo left) wants to get his sled out again this year.  

How long until hurricane season again? LOL

Models seeing an emerging Atlantic ridge, which is blocking our lows from coming eastward into the gulf. Instead they’re passing north of us. Need to see that ridge break down on the next few runs to get us closer to yesterday’s 18z solution.

Models suck at guidance, Lol

good yAY

Usually these pattern changes take time, it doesn't just happen like that.

This weekend will be a good cold shot but it won't be the motherload. That will probably come around the end of the month into early Feb.

Don't take every model run as verbatim, you will lose your mind.