...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of east Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and Mississippi Saturday and Saturday night.
...Synopsis... A vigorous mid-level trough initially over west Texas will shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday while taking on a slight negative tilt. As this occurs, a belt of strong (70-90 kt) mid-level flow will overspread areas from the Sabine River Valley toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, an organizing low will migrate from central Texas toward the ArkLaTex through the afternoon as a warm front lifts northward toward southern Arkansas and the Mid-South region. South of this front, a warm, moist airmass (characterized by upper 60s to 70F dewpoints) will become established. South of the low, a cold front will shift eastward - potentially reaching western Alabama by 12Z Sunday.
...East Texas through western Alabama... Models indicate ongoing convection at the start of the period across north Texas, which may pose a risk for hail given steep mid-level lapse rates in that area. Through the day, storms will gradually become more widespread across Arkansas and Louisiana through midday and toward evening. Weak to moderate buoyancy, strong deep shear, and backed low-level winds will favor all modes of severe, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. Particularly concerning is the hint in nearly all guidance that convection will develop within the free warm sector well removed from any fronts during peak heating hours. This scenario would likely result in potential for several tornadoes (a few significant) and damaging wind gusts assuming instability profiles verify as currently progged. Concerns remain regarding timing of the wave and subsequent convective development, with an overall westward trend apparent in convective evolution compared to yesterday's runs. Some continued disagreement also exists in most recent guidance with regard to eastward progression of convection. Instability may also become a limiting factor if too many storms form and result in unfavorable storm-scale interactions. Nevertheless, a synoptically evident severe weather episode appears likely to unfold - especially within the Enhanced Risk area.
Winter 2018/2019 Number of Freezes: 11 CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11 NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Apr 11, 2019 21:56:35 GMT -6
From some things I've been reading, it could be a very rough day on Saturday over central and northern Louisiana. Alexandria, Shreveport, Bossier City, Ruston, and Monroe could be really under the gun. Hopefully it won't be too bad there and it loses some steam when heading out way.