I have a dr appointment in BR at 1:15. I can’t decide if I want to cancel and reschedule to be home with the wife and kid or if I should go, risk being on the roads during severe weather and fight with traffic from hell.
I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL - ALL OF MY POSTS ARE BASED ON MY OPINIONS ONLY.
Main focus of the forecast will be Thursday into Friday as another strong system moves through the middle of the country. Upper low currently over Arizona gets pushed eastward and opens up as a strong shortwave dives southward out of Canada on Thursday. Surface low currently getting its act together over Colorado will move northeastward to the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning with a cold front southwestward into east Texas. As the southern stream shortwave moves toward the area, a secondary low pressure will develop along the front and move to near Memphis by Thursday evening. Convection will develop in advance of the low, strengthening as it moves across the area from mid-morning Thursday through early evening, with categorical PoPs for most of the area. Likely to have a QLCS structure with potentially some supercell development in advance of it. NAM BUFR soundings definitely showing more robust convection than the GFS BUFR soundings. Plenty of shear available, as well as instability. SPC has a large area, including all of the local area, in an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for Thursday and Thursday night. Main threat is damaging winds with some tornadoes. SPC outlook carries a large hatched area of probabilities denoting a threat of significant severe weather over just about the entire CWA. That's defined as a threat of 65 knot wind gusts, 2 inch hail or EF2 tornado. Will carry mention of severe in the grids. Heavy rainfall also a threat with widespread 1-3 inch amounts as precipitable water values get up around 1.8 inches, with locally higher totals possible. Precipitation should be east of the area by sunrise Friday, but could be some wrap around cloud cover across about the northern half of the area for much of the day.
Winter 2019 - 2020 Freeze Days so far: 3
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