I'd believe rain or shine, they'll be opening it Thursday ( unless the crest is delayed again). In fact, if majority of the heavy rains fall in the Mississippi River basin that'll likely be a likely hood of an increased CFS opening, currently a flow rate of 150,000 CFS is expected to be released but any additional rainfall will not be good.
I have marked L where the weak surface low we have all been tracking and where the NHC placed its latest best track position. X is where some of us see a stronger mid level circulation developing and where a new surface low may develop as it tracks WNW to NW over the next couple of days before nearing the northern MX coast.
Long-range, GFS has storm skirting the coast and hitting the Panhandle on the 16th
That was the Florida panhandle, on just one run, yesterday. In typical, June GFS fashion, every run is different, this far out, showing various, generally small circulations, anywhere around the gulf, from run to run. Obviously, if anything was to become consistent, it would be given its own thread.