Lot of discussion on some other sites about this finally coming together. There is no sustained convection and clouds are mid and upper level. Upper outflow in itself does not mean genesis. When you begin to see those boiling hot towers popping up and continuing then you may have something. I find it rather strange that there are so few bouys in that region of the Gulf based on today’s technology. Perhaps proximity to Hurricane Hunter bases negates the need for them but the N Gulf has tons.Still looks to me that needed rain will come and move on. Doesn’t look like a generalized threat to current river levels regarding rain. However, if the A basin and Miss River were to wind up on the East side of a weak TS there could be some issues. A pressure gradient created by the W side of the high could also exacerbate the situation. On my “Hurricane Terror Alcohol Consumption Scale” this rates at a 1. 1 being a half glass of wine and 10 being Margaritas for breakfast , lunch, and dinner!
Can we please have the full version of this Hurricane Terror Alcohol Consumption Scale. It is too great of a scale not to share the rest of it. TIA
Post by grisairgasm on Jun 4, 2019 10:41:41 GMT -6
Invest remains unchanged. It could be argued less organization than yesterday with competing circulations evident. There is a little more convection however displaced. NHC has dropped development chances to 40% now. I’ll work on my “Hurricane Terror Scale”LOL! It might be fun if we started a thread for that and everybody contributed ideas while things are slow!
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0364 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Tue Jun 04 2019
Areas affected...Texas Gulf Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041955Z - 050155Z
Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with tropical moisture will move onshore the Texas Gulf Coast through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Downpours may produce hourly totals of 1-2" and cause localized flash flooding.
Discussion...Slow moving convection developing within an area of highly anomalous moisture associated with a weak tropical wave will gradually move onshore through the evening. The latest GPS TPW blended product shows 2.2 to near 2.4" offshore the southern Texas Gulf Coast, which is near the daily max for BRO and CRP. This has been slowly pushing onshore this afternoon.
With convective temperatures being reached and a weak shortwave moving through in the upper levels, convection has been blossoming in the outlook area. Area radar and observations show rates increasing to 0.5-1.0"/hr. This is likely to increase some into the afternoon. Instability is plenty with MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg.
Meso models haven't locked onto this activity very well today but in general suggest scattered to numerous convection should continue into the early evening. Most keep the bulk of the highest QPF offshore, but the current radar trends suggest some of this could continue to drift onshore. While FFG values aren't too low and antecedent conditions are dry (14-day departures are below 25 percent), if the higher rain rates fall on sensitive areas or urban locations, then some localized flash flooding could be possible.
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