Post by tigergirl on Aug 16, 2007 15:24:15 GMT -6
000
FXUS64 KLIX 162108
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
.SHORT TERM...
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA...MOSTLY WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS TX. A 500 MB LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST IN ADVANCE OF WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE
DEAN. THE 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS BREEZY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT HOTTER. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN REACH NEAR 105 AGAIN FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER DAY AND THE 20 PERCENT WE
HAVE IN THE FORECAST COULD A BIT HIGH.
.LONG TERM...
THE 500 MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS
THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHILE HURRICANE DEAN MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FINALLY TRANSITION US INTO A MORE TYPICAL
AUGUST PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALLING OVER ABOUT
40 PERCENT OF THE AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
NIGHTTIME POP DURING THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING THE NOCTURNAL MARITIME CONVECTION INLAND.
SOME DRIER AIR COULD TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH A
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER...DEEPER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP POPS UP AT LEAST IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK DEAN A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
BACK INLAND ACROSS MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF KMSY-KBTR AND AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
23-00Z. ALSO...PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR
15 KNOTS UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNSET. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT BY MAY AFFECT SOME INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 95 72 95 / 10 20 10 20
BTR 76 95 75 96 / 10 30 10 20
MSY 80 93 79 95 / 10 30 10 20
GPT 77 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
22
FXUS64 KLIX 162108
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
.SHORT TERM...
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA...MOSTLY WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS TX. A 500 MB LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST IN ADVANCE OF WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE
DEAN. THE 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS BREEZY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT HOTTER. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN REACH NEAR 105 AGAIN FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER DAY AND THE 20 PERCENT WE
HAVE IN THE FORECAST COULD A BIT HIGH.
.LONG TERM...
THE 500 MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS
THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHILE HURRICANE DEAN MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FINALLY TRANSITION US INTO A MORE TYPICAL
AUGUST PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALLING OVER ABOUT
40 PERCENT OF THE AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
NIGHTTIME POP DURING THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING THE NOCTURNAL MARITIME CONVECTION INLAND.
SOME DRIER AIR COULD TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH A
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER...DEEPER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP POPS UP AT LEAST IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK DEAN A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
BACK INLAND ACROSS MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF KMSY-KBTR AND AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
23-00Z. ALSO...PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR
15 KNOTS UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNSET. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT BY MAY AFFECT SOME INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 95 72 95 / 10 20 10 20
BTR 76 95 75 96 / 10 30 10 20
MSY 80 93 79 95 / 10 30 10 20
GPT 77 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
22