Post by gullywasher on Sept 3, 2007 13:26:04 GMT -6
The thunderstorms mean new messages have been posted since the last time you've logged in and the sun means no new messages.
Inside the forum, the clouds are normal, lightning strikes mean the topic is hot, ice crystals means it's a sticky.
Now thats some creative thinking.
It IS sorta like the Fallstaff weather ball.
KUDOS on that.
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
Thanks tigergirl. Yes, I remember Andrea. The reason I asked about naming, is that it is only recently that I have noticed the title of *sub-tropical storm so and so*. I am wondering is the naming has recently come about, or is I just wasn't paying attention a few years back.
from Dr. Joe Sobel, AccuWeather.com USA Weather expert,
O.K., so we have a storm which is not tropical and is not going to become tropical, so how can the National Hurricane Center issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Florida and Georgia? The rationale, apparently, is that the storm could bring tropical storm conditions which means sustained winds of 39 mph or higher. To me, that makes no sense whatsoever. If that is the only criteria used to issue a tropical storm watch, then what about a nor’easter in January that brings 50 and 60 mph winds? Why isn’t a tropical storm watch issued then if apparently a storm doesn’t have to be tropical in order for a tropical storm watch to be issued? Catch my drift?
Here’s another thing to ponder. Back in the old days… and I’m only talking 5 years or so ago… we did not name sub-tropical storms. Names were only given to storms that were deemed to be truly tropical. In the last few years, there have been a number of sub-tropical storms named. Those named storms go into the total of named storms and obviously increase the number of storms that year and consequently increase the average number of storms per year. It has been claimed that global warming is responsible for an increasing number of tropical storms and hurricanes, but here is a reason that the number of storms is increasing that has absolutely nothing to do with global warming. It’s because we are mixing apples and oranges and calling them all apples! And, by the way, on that topic, there was an interesting article recently published by the American Geophysical Union written by C.W. Landsea, a very respected hurricane researcher, that says any increase in the number of hurricanes observed over the last 100 years is only the result of the fact that we have more ships at sea, more people living on coastlines, and satellites to see storms now that would have gone unrecorded 50 or 75 years ago. You can find more about this article, at Global Perspective blog in the Global Warming Center.
Okay, when a met discusses CAPE numbers what are those? A local met was mentioning them and said something about joules/per something. Joules is (I think) an electrical measurement so does this have to do with lightning and if so, what's the significance of it?
Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 9, 2008 19:19:12 GMT -6
Measured in j/kg... It is a measure of the amount of instability in the atmosphere. Basically it is the energy avaliable to lift a parcel of air when it breaks the cap. A good way to think of it is by pushing a basketball underwater, when you release the basketball(break the cap) it shoots to the surface. That is easy right?
Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 9, 2008 19:43:18 GMT -6
Severe Storm Ingredients
A severe storm needs certain ingredients to develop and continue to maintain itself.
1) Moisture- A storm needs moisture to feed it. Moisture is measured in the surface dew points. High dew points will mean there is a greater potential for severe storms. Now not only is it important for moisture to be at the surface, but moisture must be high up into the atmosphere atleast through 600-700MB. Dry air in the mid-levels enhances the severe weather potential because it lowers the wet-bulb level leading to higher instability.
2) Shear- A severe storm needs to have speed shear(increasing winds with height) and directional shear(turning of winds with height) to develop. First, strong speed shear allows a storm to maintain itself once it develops because the downdraft tilts away from the updraft allowing for a continuous cycle of winds. If the downdraft wouldn't get blown away from the updraft you would see the storm choke itself. Also, strong directional shear must be present for tornado development. As a storm rises in the atmosphere it will rotate(leading to a tornado) if directional shear is present. All shearing is caused by the jet streams in many layers of the atmosphere. A strong upper-jet must be over the storm to enhance it through divergence. The opposite principal goes into effect when speaking of the upper atmosphere compared to the surface; at the surface convergence leads to lifting, while diverging air leads to lifting in the upper atmosphere.
3)Instability- A severe storm must have instability to intensify. All of these parameters could be in place, but with no instability a storm will not grow and develop into the atmosphere. Instability is caused by either warming the ground temperatures or cooling the upper level temperatures. Put two and two together you see that instability is created through temperature differences in the atmosphere. Instability is measured in the Lifting Index, CAPE values, and lapse rates.
Abundant Moisture, No Shear, Tons of Instability= HAIL OR MICROBURSTS THREAT That would be something we would see in the summer....
Limited Moisture, Tons of Shear, Since you have limited moisture you would have limited instability= Slight Tornado & Wind Threat
Tons of Moisture, Tons of Shear, Limited Instability= Moderate Tornado, Damaging Winds Threat
Each Out The Roof= That will occur this May in the Plains when Zack & Sky are there. hehehe