Post by strato474 on Jan 11, 2008 1:23:48 GMT -6
I know that this is in my area and not your's...but maybe some people will want to post....LOL ;D
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NC TO SRN DELMARVA AREA...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
CONUS...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MS VALLEY REGION EJECTS NEWD
AND WEAKENS. BY 11/12Z...EXPECT ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER NRN LOWER
OR ERN UPPER MI...WITH TROUGH SWD TO ERN TN. THIS PERTURBATION WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS INLAND MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS
CANADIAN BORDER TO SRN QUE BY 12/00Z. AS THIS OCCURS...OCCLUDING
SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD FROM LOWER MI INTO SWRN/CENTRAL QUE...WHILE
COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN
FL AND NERN/N-CENTRAL GULF BY END OF PERIOD.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OFFSHORE BC AND WA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12/12Z...HOWEVER FOREGOING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
...MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGIONS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS OR CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDMORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA. DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD BE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A
FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EITHER WITH DISTINCT SUPERCELLS OR WITH
MESOCIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN BOW/LEWP CONFIGURATIONS.
PREFRONTAL BAND OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- CORRESPONDING WITH PRECIP
PLUME NOW EXTENDING FROM AL TO CENTRAL PA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS OVER APPALACHIANS THAT
IS RELATED TO COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN...BETWEEN NC-DELMARVA...AS COLD AIR NEAR SFC
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND MIXES/ RETREATS NWD. WARM SECTOR MOISTURE
ALSO SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...WITH
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING AT LEAST IN PART FROM ONGOING MARINE
MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER GULF STREAM. ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF
DIURNAL HEATING IS IN QUESTION BECAUSE OF LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD
COVER...PRIND THETAE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO OFFSET MEAGER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD UNSTABLE SFC PARCELS BEFORE PRECIP
BAND PASSES THROUGH AREA. ANY POCKETS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION
SIMPLY WOULD SERVE TO BOOST BUOYANCY ABOVE MRGL LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE NARROWER AND WEAKER WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO
DELMARVA REGION AND LOWER DE RIVER VALLEY...MAKING SVR POTENTIAL
MORE CONDITIONAL.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EACH ARE FCST TO WEAKEN
WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND WITH TIME IN THIS AREA
AS WELL. THIS LIKEWISE WILL MAKE SVR POTENTIAL MORE MRGL AND
CONDITIONAL FROM SC SSWWD.