Post by futuremet on Mar 3, 2008 7:11:10 GMT -6
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...SE
AR...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF TN...KY AND GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LONG-TERM SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ERN NM UPR LOW HAS NEARLY REACHED IT'S SRN-MOST
LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO N CNTRL TX LATE TODAY
...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS WRN/NRN AR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM MN/WRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING
FROM LWR MI TO AR...SHOULD MOVE E TO A NRN NEW ENGLAND/WV/MIDDLE TN
LINE 12Z MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SRN PLNS COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE SURGING S/SE ACROSS TX. A LOW EVOLVING INVOF RESULTING
INFLECTION POINT NEAR THE ARKLATEX SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO EJECTION OF NM/TX TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE BNA AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
QLCS ALONG CNTRL/E TX COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SVR
THROUGH THE DAY AS LINE CONTINUES GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE SABINE
INTO WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS NM/TX UPR LOW CONTINUES
EWD...STORM STRENGTH WILL BE MITIGATED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML
CAP AND LOW STRATUS. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BROKEN SEGMENTS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND...ESPECIALLY...
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA E AND NE
INTO SE AR...MS...AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS 100 KT MID LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX UPR LOW
FINALLY REDEVELOPS ON E SIDE OF EJECTING UPR SYSTEM.
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION WILL RESULT IN LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS
WITH 0-1 SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. MERIDIONAL UPR FLOW WILL KEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE TO AOA
60 F N TO THE TN BORDER BY 06Z MONDAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN
THE NRN GULF/ AND INCREASING UVV/UPR DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG QLCS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/03/2008
