Post by Jason Moreland on Aug 28, 2008 1:36:16 GMT -6
Ok time for some analysis because there's a bit of a chance we could be looking at a slightly different scenario once everyone wakes up.
Recon just found the center south and east of where the NHC and model guidance had it. This will likely mean that Gustav will arrive in the central Gulf SLIGHTLY later than all model guidance is forecasting. With that said, the GFS depicts a steady erosion of the ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley through Days 5-6. If the GFS pattern is correct, and Gustav enters the Gulf later than expected, then a turn toward the north may begin farther east than most guidance is currently anticipating. Gustav would then become more of a threat from central LA, eastward toward the Florida Panhandle with the threat to W LA and TX becoming less and less.
The tropical models were the first to have the new position estimate put into the guidance, and they have shifted east. This fits what I assumed would be the case due to the GFS prognosis. This isn't enough data for the NHC to make a change at 4AM. However, I now have a hunch that the GFDL and HWRF will also shift east later this morning at around 6:30AM. If they do, then I would expect the NHC to make some modifications by the 10AM package.
I will say this though. Before this update came out, the UKMET and NOGAPS shifted west toward upper Texas. the UKMET and NOGAPS affect the TVCN consensus model greatly. As a result, the TVCN shifted west this morning. I wouldnt be surprised if the NHC shifts west some at 4AM. But I don't buy it. I think the TVCN should be thrown out at the moment. I think the real trend is eastward today, but we should know if i'm right no later than noon. Again, i'm not expecting major changes at 4AM. We'll see....just personal opinion here...
