Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8

ndg
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:09:48 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2008 7:09:48 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:04:17 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

Have the 12z model runs come out yet? I know that this is 5 hours ahead, so wouldn't that mean 7 am?

Here are the early 12z tropical model runs, for what they're worth, the one to watch, IMO, is BAMD

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200 080830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 75.7W 18.6N 77.4W 19.5N 79.5W 20.4N 81.8W
BAMD 17.9N 75.7W 18.0N 77.0W 18.4N 78.5W 19.3N 80.3W
BAMM 17.9N 75.7W 18.2N 77.2W 18.7N 79.1W 19.5N 81.2W
LBAR 17.9N 75.7W 18.0N 76.7W 18.7N 78.1W 19.8N 79.5W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 60KTS 55KTS 68KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 1200 080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 84.2W 23.2N 88.5W 25.0N 91.4W 26.6N 93.3W
BAMD 20.5N 82.3W 23.9N 86.1W 27.9N 88.6W 31.1N 89.8W
BAMM 20.4N 83.5W 22.7N 87.4W 25.2N 90.1W 27.4N 91.7W
LBAR 21.2N 81.3W 24.5N 84.4W 27.4N 86.1W 29.1N 87.4W
SHIP 93KTS 99KTS 93KTS 81KTS
DSHP 80KTS 86KTS 81KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 75.7W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 75.1W DIRM12 = 238DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 73.7W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$

Randy - Brandon, MS
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:10:36 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Aug 28, 2008 7:10:36 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:08:46 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

Great. Thanks Randy!

Some members of my family are blowing off models based on Gus' sw-wsw movement this morning. They're saying it could keep moving sw into central am/mexico based on what looks like dry air pushing down from north....even tho NO models have indicated this!!!

Their concern is that we have ressies in Pensacola for a previously booked Labor Day trip. I will not go there, but others are still insisting that it's still okay to go ahead!!!

I just think that's asking for headaches!

UGH...gotta love family! FWIW, the GFDL had a hard SW motion in its 00z run last night...and you see where it still puts Gustav. In my opinion, the SW motion is coming to end.

Last Edit: Aug 28, 2008 7:12:17 GMT -6 by Randy - Brandon, MS

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:12:14 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2008 7:12:14 GMT -6 I do not understand the freaking media. Excuse me, by I'm getting darned ticked with them today.
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rob
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:13:20 GMT -6

Post by rob on Aug 28, 2008 7:13:20 GMT -6

I am getting all kinds of calls from people saying - it is going to Texas and we are done with it! I keep telling them that this can and will change - wonder what the City officials are thinking and who will they listen to?? These people should know hurricanes!! Keep us posted guys.

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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:13:37 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2008 7:13:37 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:10:36 GMT -6 Randy - Brandon, MS said:

Aug 28, 2008 7:08:46 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

Great. Thanks Randy!

Some members of my family are blowing off models based on Gus' sw-wsw movement this morning. They're saying it could keep moving sw into central am/mexico based on what looks like dry air pushing down from north....even tho NO models have indicated this!!!

Their concern is that we have ressies in Pensacola for a previously booked Labor Day trip. I will not go there, but others are still insisting that it's still okay to go ahead!!!

I just think that's asking for headaches!

UGH...gotta love family! FWIW, the GFDL had a hard SW motion in its 00z run last night...and you see where it still puts Gustav. In my opinion, the SW motion is coming to end.

I agree..... and on the latest satellite loop it even looks like it's moving w or even nw as someone posted a few minutes ago.

missy
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:13:39 GMT -6

Post by missy on Aug 28, 2008 7:13:39 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:08:46 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

Great. Thanks Randy!

Some members of my family are blowing off models based on Gus' sw-wsw movement this morning. They're saying it could keep moving sw into central am/mexico based on what looks like dry air pushing down from north....even tho NO models have indicated this!!!

Their concern is that we have ressies in Pensacola for a previously booked Labor Day trip. I will not go there, but others are still insisting that it's still okay to go ahead!!!

I just think that's asking for headaches!

Alli,
We have a family trip to Pensacola and we are leaving this afternoon. Actually, the weather forecast through the weekend is pretty good. We decided that we will monitor the situation and if need be, we'll get in our cars and drive farther north if Gustav looks threatening. We were not going to let him spoil our plans!

soupbone
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:16:19 GMT -6

Post by soupbone on Aug 28, 2008 7:16:19 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 6:58:03 GMT -6 cajunwxman said:

Aug 28, 2008 6:55:21 GMT -6 soupbone said:

Thanks John...this is what's concerning me. I seriously hear people laughing him off to Texas now because the track shifted west. It's gonna be a long day to say the least.

Soup...the forecast track will change again in the days ahead. Maybe a little to the west or the east.

Not sure what you are meaning by this. Tracks will change most of the time based on new data. What are you trying to say?

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Cheshire Cat
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:16:56 GMT -6

Post by Cheshire Cat on Aug 28, 2008 7:16:56 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:12:14 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I do not understand the freaking media. Excuse me, by I'm getting darned ticked with them today.

Tell 'em go to DNC and cover Denver's weather until Gus makes his arrival to GOM....

Yes, like you all say, it s still too early...

Harleygirl GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,064	Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:17:16 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Harleygirl on Aug 28, 2008 7:17:16 GMT -6 Question please: On this link is sure looks like the coc is a little NW of where the NHC puts it, and looks to be moving nw also, not sw. Am I wrong on the location of it? www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
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Randy - Brandon, MS
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:18:27 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Aug 28, 2008 7:18:27 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:17:16 GMT -6 Harleygirl said:

Question please:

On this link is sure looks like the coc is a little NW of where the NHC puts it, and looks to be moving nw also, not sw. Am I wrong on the location of it?

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Agreed...and he looks like a growing monster in that loop. Great structure!

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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:18:43 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2008 7:18:43 GMT -6

That's what the family is saying here, Missy.

BUT,
--I live in St. Charles, they call for evacs early;
--packing for a beach trip and an evacuation are two different things.
--Our condo won't accept our dog; the hotels where I have ressies in BR and/or Laf. do.
--My DH MAY have to report back to work quickly if the storm hits NO to assess damages. It might be too hard to get to from Pensacola Beach.
--We're traveling w/my 81 yr old MIL.

Sorry, don't mean to hijack thread on models/projections/paths, but obviously what the models say now, triggers all sorts of events for state and local authorities.

shibumi
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:18:55 GMT -6

Post by shibumi on Aug 28, 2008 7:18:55 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:09:18 GMT -6 tammanysky said:

That developing eye sure looks like it is going to go to the north of Jamaica. Has the WSW motion become more west or even WNW based on what that eye-like structure is doing? I don't think this is what we were hoping for in SE La.

I would not use the short term location as an indication of overall movement because of the nature of the land in Jamaica...think of it as a side-step...whether it passes north or south of the island the overall motion may be west...

Just like if you look at the historical path of the storm it shows that he traveled almost due south to get to where he is this AM, but we know that it was a relocatin of the center...not a true traveling of the center south....

missy
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:21:33 GMT -6

Post by missy on Aug 28, 2008 7:21:33 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:18:43 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

That's what the family is saying here, Missy.

BUT,
--I live in St. Charles, they call for evacs early;
--packing for a beach trip and an evacuation are two different things.
--Our condo won't accept our dog; the hotels where I have ressies in BR and/or Laf. do.
--My DH MAY have to report back to work quickly if the storm hits NO to assess damages. It might be too hard to get to from Pensacola Beach.
--We're traveling w/my 81 yr old MIL.

Sorry, don't mean to hijack thread on models/projections/paths, but obviously what the models say now, triggers all sorts of events for state and local authorities.

Alli,
Can't say that I blame you! Lake Charles to Pensacola is a whole different ball game than NO to there. Hope you are able to relax somewhat. Be safe!

campbreeze
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:22:50 GMT -6

Post by campbreeze on Aug 28, 2008 7:22:50 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:05:50 GMT -6 ndg said:

I see the better possibilty of a hard left than a hard right. But with its gain in strength as expected in the GOM it will tend to go poleward, taking advantage of every little weakness of the ridge. So that's why I am giving LA the highest threat and not TX.

If I read it right the 06Z NOGAPS actually shows a sharper W movement in the GOM, but after a sharper N move in the Caribbean than expected.

Look, I know what the smart people here think of the NOGAPS, I'm just sayin'.

That NOGAPS type path would be very dangerous IMO, because I think you'd get even more of this "Good it's going to TX" thinking, and then a little change in direction and S LA gets slammed by the right front quadrant.

ndg
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Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Thread #8 Aug 28, 2008 7:23:58 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2008 7:23:58 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2008 7:12:14 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I do not understand the freaking media. Excuse me, by I'm getting darned ticked with them today.

Lol, let me see, UKMET and NOGAPS are the only two models showing a TX turn, lol, two of the horrible models so far this year of being so inconsistent.