The CMC model brings Big Daddy into the Caribbean then turns it North, then in the long range has the ridge building back and the storm moving into the Gulf as a strengthening major with a pressure of 966mb (28.52). Both the Euro and the Canadian both bring a powerful hurricane toward the Gulf. We must keep our eyes on this one.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2008 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2008 TCPOD NUMBER.....08-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM FAY -- TEAL 70 A. 23/0000Z B. AFXXX 2706A FAY C. 22/2200Z D. 29.7N 84.1W E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0500Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 15.5N 59.0W AT 23/1800Z.
WOW...wasn't expecting that! Well, she has been maintaining some convection. The GFS doesn't do much with her and the GFDL kills her off pretty quick, but here are the rest of the models. Look familiar?
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By the look of the models it appears now that 95 L will become the East coast threat and 94 L the Caribbean threat. I also notice the models have shifted further South since yesterday. I wonder if this is still going to be the Beast that the Euro had shown south of Cuba tracking toward the Yucatan Channel.