Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 6, 2008 18:28:10 GMT -6
I'm sure the answer will be that things change, but why so certain that they won't now?
Just tired of seeing people go on air and saying it's going up the East coast or out to sea, only to find 24 hours later that we're in the heart of the cone...and NOW it's accurate?
No...it's not accurate just because they point at Louisiana. If you read the NHC's discussion, you'd see they truly have no idea of where it will be at 5 days or beyond. They clearly state that.
From the 5pm Discussion:
IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
