Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5

SKYSUMMIT
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Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:22:38 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:22:38 GMT -6

It doesn't look like the tropical models are shifting east.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0619 UTC MON SEP 8 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080908 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080908 0600 080908 1800 080909 0600 080909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 76.6W 21.8N 79.1W 22.5N 81.3W 23.4N 83.0W
BAMD 21.2N 76.6W 21.5N 78.6W 22.0N 80.5W 22.7N 82.1W
LBAR 21.2N 76.6W 21.5N 78.9W 22.3N 81.5W 23.2N 83.9W
SHIP 100KTS 104KTS 108KTS 116KTS
DSHP 100KTS 66KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080910 0600 080911 0600 080912 0600 080913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.3N 84.6W 26.2N 88.4W 27.0N 92.0W 26.8N 93.8W
BAMD 23.6N 83.6W 25.1N 86.4W 25.8N 89.1W 26.4N 91.1W
LBAR 24.1N 85.9W 26.0N 89.6W 27.8N 91.9W 29.2N 91.6W
SHIP 114KTS 110KTS 104KTS 94KTS
DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 71.6W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$

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CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:23:35 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:23:35 GMT -6 The 00z EURO may be showing Houston on this run, but I'm not sure. Let's wait till 2am for the graphics.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

gcwfanatic
Tropical Storm

Posts: 86

Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:30:31 GMT -6

Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:30:31 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2008 0:22:38 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

It doesn't look like the tropical models are shifting east.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0619 UTC MON SEP 8 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080908 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080908 0600 080908 1800 080909 0600 080909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 76.6W 21.8N 79.1W 22.5N 81.3W 23.4N 83.0W
BAMD 21.2N 76.6W 21.5N 78.6W 22.0N 80.5W 22.7N 82.1W
LBAR 21.2N 76.6W 21.5N 78.9W 22.3N 81.5W 23.2N 83.9W
SHIP 100KTS 104KTS 108KTS 116KTS
DSHP 100KTS 66KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080910 0600 080911 0600 080912 0600 080913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.3N 84.6W 26.2N 88.4W 27.0N 92.0W 26.8N 93.8W
BAMD 23.6N 83.6W 25.1N 86.4W 25.8N 89.1W 26.4N 91.1W
LBAR 24.1N 85.9W 26.0N 89.6W 27.8N 91.9W 29.2N 91.6W
SHIP 114KTS 110KTS 104KTS 94KTS
DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 71.6W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$

im lost weren't the last 5 or so pages about how the models are all shifting east to central or se la..can u help me out here are they shifting or not?

jvl11775 Category 1 Posts: 143	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:31:34 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jvl11775 on Sept 8, 2008 0:31:34 GMT -6 key words are global and tropical I think. The models Scott was tracking were gfdl,gfs,now euro....these are bamm,ships,.....I think it is different... but I am guessing
	Last Edit: Sept 8, 2008 0:35:58 GMT -6 by jvl11775

gcwfanatic Tropical Storm Posts: 86	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:33:30 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:33:30 GMT -6 ohh ok thanks..what does that mean as far as the NHC track..what are the difference in tropical and global models

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:34:35 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:34:35 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2008 0:31:34 GMT -6 jvl11775 said: key words are global and tropical I think That's correct...different products. The globals shifted east.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

radioguy GCWX Supporter Posts: 118	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:36:30 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by radioguy on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:30 GMT -6 which does the nhc take into account...global or tropical?

cajunwxman
Meteorologist

Posts: 221

Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:36:34 GMT -6

Post by cajunwxman on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:34 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2008 0:23:35 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

The 00z EURO may be showing Houston on this run, but I'm not sure. Let's wait till 2am for the graphics.

Looks like near Lake Charles...or atleast the TX/LA line. It is a big change from south TX on the 12z run.

SKYSUMMIT
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Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:36:46 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:46 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2008 0:33:30 GMT -6 gcwfanatic said:

ohh ok thanks..what does that mean as far as the NHC track..what are the difference in tropical and global models

The 4am track MAY shift east a little, but I don't think they'll make a big jump.

The tropical models are the BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR. These are usually not that good outside of the deep tropics. The globals are....well, the models from around the globe. Ex: GFS, Canadian, UKMET, NOGAPS.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:38:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:38:31 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2008 0:36:30 GMT -6 radioguy said:

which does the nhc take into account...global or tropical?

Mostly the globals, but this year they've been following the TVCN very closely. It's a consensus model of the NGPS, UKMET, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. If the TVCN shifts, the NHC usually shifts.

Thanks cajunwxman for clarifying the location of the EURO. That's a huge shift.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

gcwfanatic Tropical Storm Posts: 86	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:41:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:41:02 GMT -6 thanks sky for clearing that up...yall do a great job on here i know everyone says that but thanks again

jvl11775 Category 1 Posts: 143	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:45:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jvl11775 on Sept 8, 2008 0:45:48 GMT -6 Did I read earlier that Ike made landfall in Cuba? Ike seems to be riding the coast ....eye appears to be over water still.

SKYSUMMIT
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Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:51:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:51:30 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2008 0:45:48 GMT -6 jvl11775 said:

Did I read earlier that Ike made landfall in Cuba? Ike seems to be riding the coast ....eye appears to be over water still.

What's the latest image you have? I have 345. On that image it does seem to be right on the coast.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:52:44 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:52:44 GMT -6 However those radar images may be from before the eclipse. Radar imagery shows a west movement.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

cajunwxman Meteorologist Posts: 221	Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5 Sept 8, 2008 0:53:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajunwxman on Sept 8, 2008 0:53:49 GMT -6 Actually you are right Sky...The Euro takes IKE to Houston then hooks it North and Northeast near southwest Louisiana. It has the trough picking it up.

Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #5

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:22:38 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:23:35 GMT -6

Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:30:31 GMT -6

Post by jvl11775 on Sept 8, 2008 0:31:34 GMT -6

Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:33:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:34:35 GMT -6

Post by radioguy on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:30 GMT -6

Post by cajunwxman on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:34 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:36:46 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:38:31 GMT -6

Post by gcwfanatic on Sept 8, 2008 0:41:02 GMT -6

Post by jvl11775 on Sept 8, 2008 0:45:48 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:51:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 8, 2008 0:52:44 GMT -6

Post by cajunwxman on Sept 8, 2008 0:53:49 GMT -6

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