Post by kennethb on Dec 8, 2008 19:47:59 GMT -6
Arctic air entering US does not always mean very cold down south. I can recall back in the 80's walking around in shorts and flip flops while the northern US was frigid.
After looking at todays ensembles, AO, NAO, PNA, which back in late November were signaling all of the indicators of cold, now have almost flipped to warm signals.
It is like the GFS that stole Christmas and everyone is going boo hoo hoo.
I would rather wait until January/early February to get our cold if we will get any as that is when we can get the best conditions for good cold and wintry precip chances.
Its only December 8, so it is rather early for wintry precip. Even the GFS suggestion this past weekend for wintry pre-cip this week would be difficult to believe in January. It is rare for an ULL to go this far south and to cause wintry precip. If I recall the Jackson snow of December 1997, there was a model or two that suggested snow this far south, but we only received cold and clouds.
I can recall only a few wintry precip events here in Baton Rouge before Christmas: Late November 1976 when we had a good sleet/freezing rain event, I think in 1962 or 1963 during that early December record setting arctic outbreak, and iDecember 17, 1973 or so, we had light flurries all day, making it the third day in 1973 it snowed. We had about 1.5 inches in January (after two days for freezing rain) and 2.5 inches in February of that year. And of course there was 1989.
There have been many more wintry events, some just traces, in January and February. For instance in 1988 we had two snows in 3 days.
So as the GFS that seems to be taking away winter, I think will realize its grief just like the Grinch and reward us with cold and wintry precip in early 2009.
After looking at todays ensembles, AO, NAO, PNA, which back in late November were signaling all of the indicators of cold, now have almost flipped to warm signals.
It is like the GFS that stole Christmas and everyone is going boo hoo hoo.
I would rather wait until January/early February to get our cold if we will get any as that is when we can get the best conditions for good cold and wintry precip chances.
Its only December 8, so it is rather early for wintry precip. Even the GFS suggestion this past weekend for wintry pre-cip this week would be difficult to believe in January. It is rare for an ULL to go this far south and to cause wintry precip. If I recall the Jackson snow of December 1997, there was a model or two that suggested snow this far south, but we only received cold and clouds.
I can recall only a few wintry precip events here in Baton Rouge before Christmas: Late November 1976 when we had a good sleet/freezing rain event, I think in 1962 or 1963 during that early December record setting arctic outbreak, and iDecember 17, 1973 or so, we had light flurries all day, making it the third day in 1973 it snowed. We had about 1.5 inches in January (after two days for freezing rain) and 2.5 inches in February of that year. And of course there was 1989.
There have been many more wintry events, some just traces, in January and February. For instance in 1988 we had two snows in 3 days.
So as the GFS that seems to be taking away winter, I think will realize its grief just like the Grinch and reward us with cold and wintry precip in early 2009.
