Post by Dat Fireman on Aug 26, 2012 19:49:39 GMT -6
Well finally I have the kids being sent out of harms way and have my van fueled up and ready to head to work as soon as I'm called in. Just a few questions before I head off to get some much needed rest. 1.If the center is indeed relocating NNW of the last fix, how would that affect the track? 2.If we see if slow down some, how would that affect it? 3.How far of a shift to the NHC's track are we expecting at the 10PM update? thanks to all of you for helping all of us get through this better prepared than most of our friends and neighbors who are not on this site.
Post by riverparishgirl on Aug 26, 2012 19:52:02 GMT -6
Bob is on right now and he is saying that this storm makes him very nervous, not knowing where it is going. Said it is time to make personal decisions. Could intensify greatly and could be a big issue for us.
Bob is on right now and he is saying that this storm makes him very nervous, not knowing where it is going. Said it is time to make personal decisions. Could intensify greatly and could be a big issue for us.
Capt. Doug Cain, State Police spokesman, said a shortened contraflow would reverse highways for less than the 30 hours implemented during a regular contraflow. But even a shortened plan, he said, would include all the roadways of a usual contraflow. The plan would call for reversing traffic in inbound lanes of Interstate 10 in the south shore and part of St. Charles Parish and in inbound lanes of Interstates 12, 55 and 59 in the north shore and parts of Mississippi.
Bob is on right now and he is saying that this storm makes him very nervous, not knowing where it is going. Said it is time to make personal decisions. Could intensify greatly and could be a big issue for us.
That's odd...he usually like to sweep it under the rug.
I gotta tell ya' folks......I just see a simple NW motion in a stairstepping pattern. I don't see any patterns of change in movement. Looking at the forecast points, it seems to be pretty much on track.
Granted I'm not smart about these things!
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Again, slightly off-topic, but thanks to all for your inputs, your data-sharing, your perceptions, and your questions! I think this has been the most exhausting storm-tracking I may have done in quite some time, but y'all have helped make it bearable!
Just in case you missed it, Mayor Landrieu basically said we are hunkering down and riding this one out unless major changes happen. Gov. Jindal said low-lying parishes should evacuate, but that's about it for now.
I told my daughter this afternoon that it is hard to blieve the amount of energy that has been spent on tracking this storm and it has yet to reach hurricane status. Trying to pinpoint what it is going to do and where is like trying to nail jello to the wall.
I gotta tell ya' folks......I just see a simple NW motion in a stairstepping pattern. I don't see any patterns of change in movement. Looking at the forecast points, it seems to be pretty much on track.
Granted I'm not smart about these things!
Yeah, it actually took a jog westward this afternoon, but now it's made up for that in a relocation to the NNW. We're only 48 hours out, so don't expect big changes in that track.
I gotta tell ya' folks......I just see a simple NW motion in a stairstepping pattern. I don't see any patterns of change in movement. Looking at the forecast points, it seems to be pretty much on track.
Granted I'm not smart about these things!
Nolasim is spot on, folks. Hurricanes don't move in straight lines 90% of the time. Most of the time, especially in situations like this, storms stair-step. Or make wobbles to the west, and then wobble north...yada yada yada. And in the grand scheme of things, this motion is averaged over several hours and there is the motion you see on an advisory.
I gotta tell ya' folks......I just see a simple NW motion in a stairstepping pattern. I don't see any patterns of change in movement. Looking at the forecast points, it seems to be pretty much on track.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 01:50Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 24 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 1:13:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°10'N 82°34'W (24.1667N 82.5667W) B. Center Fix Location: 56 miles (91 km) to the WSW (241°) from Key West, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,377m (4,518ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:17:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
