Jan 17th Upper-Low Snow?

From Jackson:


UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING UKMET/EURO/GFS AND

ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL

PROPAGATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY

MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...A SURFACE DRY LAYER

WILL DEVELOP WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL LATE WEDNESDAY TO

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SATURATION OCCURS

IN THE -6 TO -10 DEG C LAYER AND A DEEP LOW LEVEL DRYING

OCCURRING FROM THE SURFACE AND EXTENDING DEEPER WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE

REGION...WITH MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS EVAPORATION OF THE

PRECIPITATION AND WET BULB EFFECT OCCURS...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN

TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER 00Z THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST

OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN

SECTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH 15Z BEFORE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE AXIS

OF MOISTURE/LIFT SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. VERY LIGHT TO NO

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE PROPAGATION

OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE

BEEN WARM LATELY AND WARM SOIL TEMPS AND SATURATED SOILS WILL

SUPPORT VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE

FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ON POPS...TEMPS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING

WILL BE COLDER AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

AN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK

AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/