Puerto Rico Weather

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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 10, 2017 4:25:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 10, 2017 4:25:17 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

446 AM AST Fri Feb 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across the southeastern U.S. will

move across the western Atlantic, pushing a cold front across the

local area at the end of the weekend. An increase in cloudiness

and showers are expected by then. High pressure will weaken

quickly as another cold front exits the eastern U.S coast by

Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the

U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. No shower activity was observed

over most land areas. High pressure system will continue to

dominate the local region through at least Saturday night. A cold

front currently extending from the northeastern U.S, south toward

the northern Bahamas, will move rapidly southeastward during the

next couple of days. This cold front will approach the local area

Sunday night into Monday. An increase in cloudiness with showers

are then expected.

For early next week, the remnant of this front will linger across

the region through mid week.Therefore, some isolated to scattered

showers can be expected each day, beginning on Monday and

continuing through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period with

little to no SHRA activity over the local area. Possible VCSH at

TJMZ/TJPS btwn 10/18Z-22Z with SCT-BKN ceilings at FL025-FL050. Calm

to light and variable winds until 10/13z, becoming from the NE at

around 15 kt and with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet are expected to continue across the

offshore Atlantic waters through Saturday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet

can be expected elsewhere. Small craft operators should exercise

caution over the offshore Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to

increase on Saturday night and during the weekend as high

pressure ridge will build north of the region and a northerly

swell will arrive across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 86 75 84 74 / 20 10 10 50

STT 85 73 84 73 / 20 10 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 11, 2017 4:35:29 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 11, 2017 4:35:29 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

520 AM AST Sat Feb 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Ridge is weakening aloft as an upper level trough amplifies over

the region. A high pressure on the West Atlantic will move

eastward pushing a frontal boundary near and into the region late

Saturday night into the upcoming week. As a result, cloudiness

will increase, as well as the chance of widespread showers Sunday

into the first part of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The northeast wind flow brought pleasant climatological

temperatures across the local islands. However, clouds and

showers slowly increased across the surrounding waters and some of

them moved inland over the windward sections overnight and early

this morning. The northeast wind flow will continue to push clouds

and showers mainly to the north of the Cordillera Central,

Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours.

Then, afternoon convection is expected to develop over the

interior and southwest portion of Puerto Rico.

A migratory surface high pressure will continue to move eastward

across the Western Atlantic. This pressure system will push a

frontal boundary near and across the local Atlantic waters late

Saturday night into early next week. This feature will combine

with a mid-upper level trough to bring an increase in low level

moisture and local instability across the region.

Model guidance suggested the arrival of a dry air mass and the

return of an upper level ridge by the upcoming mid week. The

surface winds are forecast to become more from the southeast,

increasing the local temperatures through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites

through the forecast period. Some passing showers are expected

over TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH are possible over TIST, TISX and TJSJ.

Low level winds will be mainly east northeast at around 15 kts

with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...Seas of 3 to 6 feet expected across the region today.

However, seas will increase by late tonight, as a northerly swell

is expected to move from the north-northwest across the region.

Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect across the Atlantic

waters and Caribbean passages late tonight into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 84 74 82 74 / 20 40 70 40

STT 85 72 83 73 / 20 20 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 12, 2017 4:45:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 12, 2017 4:45:45 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

501 AM AST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will continue to move closer to the islands.

The moisture associated with this boundary is expected to pool

over the region late this afternoon into at least Tuesday. At the

same time, an upper-level trough will swing by through mid

midweek. As a result, cloudiness will increase, as well as the

chance of scattered to widespread showers late this afternoon into

the first half of the week. Surface winds are forecast to shift

from the east-southeast and a ridge pattern aloft could return

after mid week. This weather pattern will result in warmer than

normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The northeast wind flow brought a patch of moisture with clouds

and showers across the northern half portion of Puerto Rico and

the northern U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This wind flow

supported pleasant climatological temperatures across the local

islands. Isolated showers embedded in the northeasterly winds are

expected to move through the islands this morning. High

resolution model are suggesting the development of afternoon

convection over the interior and southern portion of Puerto Rico.

A surface high pressure across the Western Atlantic will push the

frontal boundary into the region through Tuesday. This will

combined with a mid to upper level trough enhancing instability

across the region. The trough pattern was suggested by the 500 mb

temperatures and 200 mb heights (among other variables) which are

forecasting colder than normal temperatures and lower than normal

heights, respectively.

Model guidance suggested the return of an upper level ridge after

mid week. In addition, surface winds are forecast to shift from

the east-southeast around Thursday into the end of the week. As a

result, the combination of a stable air mass with a southerly

wind flow will result in limited shower activity with warmer than

normal temperatures. However, patches of low level moisture are

expected at times each day.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area

through 12/12Z. Increasing cloudiness with SHRA are expected at

TJBQ and TJSJ from around 12/12z producing brief periods of MVFR

conditions. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected

elsewhere after 12/18Z as frontal boundary moves through the area.

Low level winds will be mainly from the east northeast at 10 to

15 kts with higher gusts in showers.

&&

.MARINE...

A northerly swell is propagating across the Western Atlantic.

A high surf advisory was issued due to breaking waves between 10

and 14 feet along the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Marine

conditions are deteriorating across the local Atlantic waters and

Caribbean Passages as a swell produces seas between 7 and 10 feet

with occasional seas up to 11 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 84 74 82 72 / 30 50 50 20

STT 83 72 82 72 / 30 50 50 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 14, 2017 5:11:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 14, 2017 5:11:40 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

445 AM AST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...As trofiness aloft moves away today, a weak mid to

upper level ridge will build across the forecast area and hold

through early next week. This will result in a seasonable weather

pattern during the next several days with warm temperatures likely

across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed and Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with brief shower

activity was observed overnight and early this morning across the

local islands. The overnight minimum temperatures were generally in

the low to mid 70s across the lower elevations and in the mid to

upper 60s across the higher elevations. The wind was light from the

north northeast.

A generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the

local islands during the next few days. However showers embedded in

the trades may reach the coastal areas at times to result in passing

showers. Although ridge aloft will prevail Wed through early next

week; locally induced afternoon showers cant be ruled out due to

sea breeze convergence each afternoon. Unseasonable temperatures

are likely across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed-Thu as a

building surface high north of the area moves into the central

Atlantic by mid week. There is a surface front which is expected

to dissipate north or the area the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with SCT

-SHRA causing VCSH across TIST, TISX, TJSJ in the morning hours.

Light winds early in the morning but increasing to about 10KT and

turning N to NE for TJBQ, TJSJ, TIST after 14/14Z while sea breeze

variations will affect TJPS and TJMZ. TIST, TNCM and TKPK will have

East to ENE winds. SCT to locally NMRS SHRA in the afternoon may

affect the vicinity of TJPS and TJMZ after 14/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet today. Another

northerly swell is forecast to reach the local Atlantic waters

and Passages by Wednesday afternoon. A moderate risk of rip

currents continues along the Atlantic shorelines today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 84 74 86 73 / 40 20 20 10

STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 15, 2017 5:09:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 15, 2017 5:09:01 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

518 AM AST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light east to southeasterly winds are expected to

prevail over the next few days. Relatively dry air will prevail

over the next few days as well. Mainly fair weather expected and

any showers that may affect the local islands should be limited

to brief isolated to scattered brief showers in the overnight

hours over the windward side of PR and over the USVI, then

afternoon shower development possible due to local effects and

diurnal heating over PR. Marine and surf zone conditions to become

hazardous today and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak SFC high pressure will pass to the north of

the local islands before being absorbed by a larger high pressure

across the eastern Atlantic and then slowly will move to the NE

while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US continues to move NE,

causing a SFC trough to the NW of the local area and in turn

causing a COL over the local area which will then keep the local

islands observing rather light ESE to SE winds through the end of

the workweek. A SFC high pressure will move to the north of the

local islands, bringing back easterly wind flow for the weekend.

Broad high pressure in the upper levels is also expected to

dominate through the end of the week. A broad upper trough is

forecast to move over the area early next week.

The current pattern setup will cause mainly fair weather to

continue through the end of the week. The limited available

moisture that is expected for the next several days will cause

mainly isolated to scattered showers in the overnight and early

morning hours across the local waters, the USVI and the windward

side of PR. But those showers are not expected to cause much

rainfall accumulations. Having said that, the local effects in PR

in combination with the diurnal heating will help develop showers

in the afternoon, especially in the areas of sea breeze

convergence, some of these showers could be significant in terms

of accumulation as it would not be surprising to see some of the

showers produce up to an inch of rain or so across isolated areas,

which could cause some ponding of water in poor drainage areas,

but generally speaking the showers that do develop should produce

a quarter inch of rain or less. For today, given the expected wind

flow and the sea breeze convergence location, the area with the

most expected rainfall is the NW quadrant of PR, similar thing for

Thursday as the general wind flow is not expected to change too

much, showers may make it a bit more towards the interior of PR on

Thursday than today.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast

period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around

JBQ due to SHRA aft 15/17z. Light winds will continue early this

morning but becoming east southeast at around 10 knots aft 15/15z.

&&

.MARINE...There is a high risk of rip currents today for the

northeast to the northwest coasts of PR as well as some beaches in

Culebra. SW PR will have moderate risk of rip currents early but

will have a high risk of rip currents in the afternoon. Saint

thomas will have a high risk of rip currents across the

northwestern beaches today, worsening surf zone conditions

tonight. Northerly swell will cause local seas to deteriorate

starting tonight with seas rising up to 8 feet. A small craft

advisory will go into effect tonight at 8 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 73 86 72 / 20 10 20 20

STT 83 73 82 71 / 20 10 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 16, 2017 5:02:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 16, 2017 5:02:32 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

430 AM AST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light southeasterly winds are expected to prevail

today and Friday. Relatively dry air will prevail through the

weekend. Mainly fair weather expected and any showers that may

affect the local islands should be limited to brief isolated to

scattered brief showers in the overnight hours over the windward

side of PR and over the USVI, then afternoon shower development

possible due to local effects and diurnal heating over PR. Marine

and surf zone conditions to remain hazardous today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The big story continues to be the local marine

conditions as the northerly swell will continue to cause

hazardous seas and surf zone conditions which includes high

breaking waves and a high risk of rip currents. When it comes to

the local weather, generally fair weather is expected with

possible showers developing across areas of sea breeze convergence

in the afternoon, which is expected today across the central and

western interior as well as some areas of north central PR. Some

of these showers could be moderate to briefly heavy but generally

speaking, the showers that do develop today are not expected to

cause anything more than some ponding of water on roadways and

poor drainage areas. The rest of the local area should remain dry

with only a slight chance of showers. Brief isolated showers are

still expected during the overnight hours for the next few days,

mainly affecting the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR.

A SFC high pressure across the northeastern Atlantic is slowly

moving to the NE while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US

continues to move NE. This will cause a SFC trough to move into the

NW of the local area and in turn cause a COL over the local area

by Friday, which will keep the local islands observing rather

light SE winds through the end of the workweek. A SFC high

pressure will move to the north of the local islands this weekend,

bringing back easterly wind flow. Broad high pressure in the

upper levels is still expected to dominate through the end of the

week. A broad upper trough is forecast to move over the area

early next week. The result of this may be increased shower

activity but at this time it looks like the increase in shower

activity will be for the leeward islands and not to have a

significant effect on the local islands. This is a few days out in

the forecast so the confidence is moderately low, although models

have been consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast

period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around

JBQ/JMZ due to SHRA aft 16/17z. East southeast winds around 10 knots

with some sea breeze variations aft 16/15z.

&&

.MARINE...The long period northerly swell will continue to

affect the local waters today. Seas between 6 and 10 feet are

expected across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages, which

are currently being confirmed by the local buoys. Elsewhere, small

craft operators are urged to exercise caution due to seas up to 6

feet. Dangerous breaking wave heights will create minor coastal

erosion and hazardous rip currents across some beaches of Puerto

Rico, Culebra and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Marine conditions

are expected to slowly improve after Tonight. There are high surf

and small craft advisories in effect, there is also a high risk of

rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 72 85 72 / 20 10 10 20

STT 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 17, 2017 5:05:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 17, 2017 5:05:38 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

448 AM AST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-equatorial ridge will continue to dominate the

local weather. Under the influence of this mid-upper level

ridge...fair weather conditions will prevail over the next few

days. Pattern will change between Sunday and Monday as an upper

level trough amplify across the Western Atlantic. Increasing

clouds and shower activity is anticipated early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis shows

a dry air mass around 30%-40% below normal upstream of the U.S.

Virgin Islands. This drier and stable air mass will limit the

shower activity across the Northeast Caribbean Islands today.

High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and frontal boundary over

the Bahamas is inducing gentle east-southeast flow across the

local region today. This will lead to another warm day along the

coastal sections of PR/USVI with maximum temperatures around 86-88

degrees...2-4 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

The ridge aloft will help to maintain the fair weather pattern

through Sunday Morning. A weak surface high pressure will move

over the Western Atlantic during the weekend...inducing a northeast

flow. With the northeast component...temperatures are forecast to

remain near or below normal through midweek next week. Moisture

will pool again over the islands on Sunday as surface high pressure

brings patches of moisture associated with the remnants of the

boundary over the islands. In addition...upper trough will swing

across the Northeast Caribbean...increasing the convective instability.

As a result...additional clouds and showers can be expected Sunday

through Tuesday. Dry air will return to the local islands by midweek...

leading to tranquil weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals

through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers possible

in the afternoon across the southwest quadrant of PR. This could

result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level wind ESE at 10 kts or less. Sea

breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continues to fade out across the local

waters today. Offshore and nearshore buoys have indicated seas of

3-4 feet across the region. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet on

Sunday as another small swell reaches the local Atlantic Waters.

No small craft advisories are anticipated over the next 5 days.

Gentle winds will prevail today, increasing somewhat as shift from

the northeast during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 86 73 84 73 / 10 0 0 20

STT 83 71 83 73 / 20 0 10 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 18, 2017 5:10:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 18, 2017 5:10:38 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

450 AM AST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather pattern will prevail across the islands

most of the weekend. Then...moisture associated with a weak front

will spread over the islands late Sunday into Monday. Potent upper

level trough will swing across the Northeast Caribbean early next

week...increasing the chances of showers across the local area.

Drier and more stable air mass will return to the region by

midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicts a weak front just north of

Puerto Rico this morning. A dry air mass have been prevailing

across the local islands resulting in mostly clear skies and no

shower activity. This tranquil conditions will likely persist the

rest of today. However...the sea breeze convergence will lead to

isolated to scattered showers over portions of Southwest Puerto

Rico this afternoon. Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies and limited

shower activity are forecast under the influence of the mid-upper

level ridge. Gentle easterly winds and near normal temperatures

will prevail through tonight.

The ridge aloft will hold the rest of the weekend...however

moisture associated with the weak front will spread over Puerto

Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon. As a

result...moderate northeasterly flow will push some showers over

the islands from time to time. Afternoon showers will be possible

once again over Western PR on Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will become moist and unstable as moisture associated

with the remnants of the front persists over the local islands

and upper level trough enhances the instability. At this time...

wetter conditions are likely between Monday and Tuesday under the

influence of the upper level trough. Dry air will return to the

local islands by midweek... leading to fair weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals

through the forecast period. SHRA with max tops around FL250 should

remain over the offshore Atlantic waters due to a weak front. Brief

SHRA expected to develop across the southwest quadrant of PR between

18/18z-22z. This could result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level winds

ENE at 8-15 kts. Sea breeze variations after 18/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil conditions are prevailing across the

regional waters. Winds of 5-10 kts and seas of 2-4 feet will continue

to prevail through tonight. Winds will increase slightly and seas

will build to 4-6 feet on Sunday as a northerly swell reaches the

local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages. Tranquil conditions

will return to the region early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 73 84 74 / 0 10 10 10

STT 84 72 83 73 / 10 10 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 19, 2017 4:24:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 19, 2017 4:24:01 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

459 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal boundary over the local Atlantic Waters

will dissipate over the next few days. Moisture associated with the

front will pool across the local islands through Monday. Upper level

trough will move into the Western Atlantic tonight and swing across

the Northeast Caribbean on Monday...increasing the chances of showers

across the local area. Drier air mass will return to the region between

Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis as

well as latest surface analysis show a frontal boundary extending

from the Central Atlantic to the Northeast Caribbean Region.

Although...mid level ridge will hold through tonight...moisture

associated with the weak front will reach the local islands...

inducing scattered showers across the forecast area during the

next 24-48 hours. For today...some showers will affect the north

coast of Puerto Rico through after sunrise...followed with

scattered showers over Western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Conditions will become more unstable late tonight into Monday as

an upper level trough amplifies across the Northeast Caribbean

Region. The trough aloft will enhance the convective instability.

Therefore...shower coverage will likely increase on Monday.

After the front passes/dissipates, a generally fair weather pattern

will likely establish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast winds

will bring low clouds along windward slopes and cooler temperature

across most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through

much of the forecast period. However, SHRA and BKN/OVC cigs btw

FL070-FL120 over the Atlantic waters could reach the northern

sections of PR and IST early in the forecast period. From 19/18z-

23z, SHRA is expected to develop across the northwest quadrant of

PR. This can result in tempo MVFR conditions at JBQ/JMZ. Low level

winds light from the ENE through at least 19/12z...ESE at 10-15 kts

with sea breeze variations after 19/13z.

&&

.MARINE...A moderate swell will continue to reach the Local

Atlantic waters through late tonight. Seas of 4-6 feet in north

swell have increased the risk of rip current along the north coast

of Puerto Rico. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 73 86 76 / 20 10 30 50

STT 81 74 80 73 / 10 20 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 20, 2017 4:26:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 20, 2017 4:26:43 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

451 AM AST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trough pattern aloft and induced surface trough across

the western Atlantic will move across the forecast area today.

This will enhance showers and possible thunderstorm development

over the northern interior of PR and across the Atlantic waters

this afternoon. Winds will shift to the south to southwest today

and become northerly late tonight into Tuesday as the trough moves

over the islands and surface high build over the western Atlantic

by mid week. Upper Ridge will build quickly from the west on

Tuesday and hold for the rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloudy skies were observed across mainland PR

through the overnight hours. Light showers persisted over portions

of the western coastal areas of the islands through the overnight

hours. However, no significant rainfall accumulations were

observed. Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the U.S.

Virgin Islands through the overnight period. Light winds with an

easterly component continued across the forecast area. Moderate to

brief heavy isolated showers were noted over both Atlantic and

Caribbean coastal waters.

For the rest of the morning hours, a few breaks in clouds and

fair weather conditions are expected to prevail. However, a mid to

upper trough and associated surface trough will move during the

afternoon through evening hours across the forecast area. This

will result in periods of showers with possible thunderstorm

development over the Atlantic waters and north of the Cordillera

Central. Drier conditions and fair weather conditions are expected

to return on Tuesday and persist for much of the work week. Trade

wind shower activity and limited afternoon shower development is

expected each day after today.

&&

.AVIATION...Weak front over the flying area will keep SCT-BKN clouds

at FL025-FL070 and -SHRA at times. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA will develop near

TJSJ between 17Z-22Z. Brief MVFR conds possible the afternoon SHRA

at TJSJ. Elsewhere, mostly VFR expected. ESE Winds of 10 kts will

veer to the SSW by 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy data at San Juan and Rincon are indicating

seas less than 5 feet and therefore canceled the high risk of rip

currents. However, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue

across the Atlantic coastline of PR, Culebra and St. Thomas. Winds

will be mainly light with a southwesterly component later in the

day as the low level trough moves from the northwest across the

local waters. This can result in scattered to numerous showers

with possible thunderstorm development over the Atlantic waters.

Seas should range between 3-5 feet over the northern waters and

below 4 feet across the Caribbean waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 74 82 73 / 50 40 40 30

STT 82 73 82 72 / 20 60 50 30

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 21, 2017 4:14:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 21, 2017 4:14:42 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

458 AM AST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trof north of the area and associated weak

surface boundary will continue to move to the east and exit the

forecast area today. Ridge pattern will follow from the west and

drier fair weather is expected to prevail for the rest of the

week. Northerly winds will shift to the southeast on Thursday as

surface high moves north of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with isolated

thunderstorms over the Atlantic coastal waters moved across the

forecast area during the overnight. The heaviest showers remained

just north of the northern USVI. For the next few hours

additional showers are expected to move across the islands but

sunny skies are expected to return by the late morning hours.

Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the

higher elevations to the low 70s across coastal areas.

Overall fair weather conditions are forecast to prevail for the

rest of the week as ridge pattern builds from the west and cap

inversion keep moisture below 800 MB. However, diurnally induced

afternoon showers cannot be ruled out each day and trade wind

showers should prevail across the northern and eastern coastal

areas through Thursday. Another upper trof and associated surface

boundary are forecast to move north of the area by late Sunday

enhancing shower activity once again.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA will affect the flying area thru 14Z. As a

result, MVFR cigs are possible in passing SHRA across TJBQ,TJSJ and

TIST. VFR conds are expected after 14Z...with limited shower

activity over the region. West winds of 10-15 kt will continue below

FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Small pulses of northerly swell are forecast to reach

the regional waters for the next few days. Swell is expected to

peak on Friday morning between 4-6 feet. There is a moderate risk

of rip currents along the northern beaches of the islands.

West to northwest winds between 10-15 knots will continue today as

weak frontal boundary moves across the local area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 84 72 83 71 / 20 20 20 30

STT 82 74 82 72 / 50 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 22, 2017 4:14:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 22, 2017 4:14:11 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

452 AM AST Wed Feb 22 2017

SYNOPSIS...Deep layered area of low pressure and associated polar

trough was now located across central Atlantic and northeast of

the northern leewards. The trough axis extends southwest across

the lesser antilles and will continue to shift east southeast.

The departing trough along with a broad surface high pressure

moving across the west Atlantic will continue to induce a

northerly flow across the region today. The Low level winds are

expected to remain dominant from the north through the early

afternoon, then gradually become more to northeasterly later in

the afternoon and overnight as the high pressure ride migrates

eastward across the Atlantic. The prevailing wind flow is then

expected to return east to southeast by Thursday and Friday as

the ridge will move into and then linger across the central

and northeast Atlantic into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under the influence of northerly winds, expect isolated

to scattered fast moving showers mainly of light to moderate intensity

mainly along the northern coast of Puerto Rico and the USVI during

the rest of the early morning hours. By the late morning and early

afternoon, cloudiness and shower activity should diminish along the

north coastal areas. During the rest of the day,cloud development

should then be focused along central mountain range and the south

coastal plains of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere expect only brief streamer

like shower activity during the afternoon hours as mostly fair weather

and sunny skies should prevail with pleasant daytime temperatures

and limited shower activity.

On Thursday and by the end of the week expect the trade winds to become

more southeasterly as the high pressure ridge shifts eastward across

the Central Atlantic,c and a cold front will enter and move across

the west Atlantic. This expected southerly low level wind flow will

bring warmer temperatures especially along the north coastal areas

and an even drier airmass to the region. Therefore looking for

unseasonably warmer temperature at least for Friday through Saturday

along the northern half of PR, then a return to near normal temperature

by Sunday into early next week. So far no significant weather maker

in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying

area for the next 24 hours. Some light and brief showers can be

expected in the vicinity of the terminals this morning. Low level

winds are expected to be more from the NE to ENE after 22/12Z at

about 10 KT with sea breeze variations. SCT SHRA expected to develop

across southern PR after 22/18Z inducing VCSH at TJPS and possibly

affect the terminal at times between 22/18Z and 22/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas and winds will diminish somewhat early today to 5

feet or less and up to 10 knots over the coastal waters. However a

gradual increase in winds and seas is expected later this afternoon

and for the rest of the week with seas up to 7 feet expected to

approach the offshore Atlantic waters by Thursday and Friday due

to pulses from a northerly swell. There is a moderate risk of rip

currents for most of the north facing beaches of the islands. The

increasing winds and seas by the latter part of the week will again

cause the risk of rip currents to become high again on Thursday and

Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 82 73 86 73 / 30 30 30 20

STT 84 74 82 73 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 23, 2017 3:55:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 23, 2017 3:55:26 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

427 AM AST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level high pressure ridge will build overhead and

remain in place through Friday, then gradually weaken and shift eastward

on Saturday and Sunday as a polar trough will move across the western

Atlantic. Surface high pressure will continue to build and spread eastward

into the north central Atlantic by Friday as an area of low pressure

and associated cold front will enter the southwest Atlantic today while

lifting east northeast across the west Atlantic. This overall pattern

will cause the local winds to become more easterly today then southeasterly

by Friday as the surface high becomes reinforced across the north central

and northeast Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing northeast winds will continue to

transport patches of shallow low level moisture and occasional

showers to the regional waters and portions of the north and east

coastal sections of the islands during the rest of the morning

hours. By late morning cloudiness and shower activity should diminish

resulting in mostly sunny fair weather skies. During the afternoon

hours, expect the prevailing winds to become more southeasterly

and gradually increase. This along with local and diurnal effect

will lead to increasing cloudiness and isolated to scattered

shower development across parts of the central and northwest

sections of Puerto Rico as well as around parts of the San juan

metro area. For the rest of the islands, expect limited shower

activity with only a few quick quick passing showers in isolated

spots as mostly sunny skies should prevail during the day.

On Friday and into the weekend similar weather conditions expected with

brief passing early morning showers forecast to affect mainly the east

coastal sections of the islands. This will be followed by mostly isolated

afternoon showers across portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico.

Mostly fair weather skies expected for the USVI. Under a prevailing

southeast low level wind flow on Friday and Saturday, expect slightly

warmer daytime high temperature along the north half of Puerto Rico

and the San Juan metro area.

By Sunday and Monday, the formation of a weak prefrontal trough will

create sufficient low level moisture convergence across the region

to increase chances of early morning and afternoon convection mainly

over parts of the interior sections of Puerto Rico. By Tuesday of

next week ...the Atlantic surface high is forecast to build once

again north of the region and consequently tighten the local pressure

gradient. This in turn will increase the east to northeast trade winds...

which will be also be supported by increasing subsidence aloft and a

gradual drying trend across the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying

area for the next 24 hours. However ISOLD-SCT SHRA expected in

the vicinity of most of the terminals this morning except for

TJMZ. Passing SHRA ovr the coastal waters and en route between

islands til 23/14z. Few tops nr FL220. Low level winds are

expected to become more from the E to ESE after 23/12Z. ISOLD to

SCT SHRA is expected this afternoon, with VCSH possible across

the local terminals through the rest of the day.

&&

.MARINE...The wave watch model guidance continued to suggest

building seas across the local Atlantic water during the day.

Recent data from buoy 41043 showed seas now up to 7 feet in the

past few hours. Therefore small craft advisory will go into effect

for the Atlantic outer waters from 23/18Z. Small craft operators

should exercise caution across the rest of the Atlantic waters and

local passages. Winds are also expected to increase and become

more east to southeast today and through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 73 87 74 / 20 20 20 10

STT 85 73 82 74 / 30 20 20 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 24, 2017 3:58:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 24, 2017 3:58:36 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED

National Weather Service San Juan PR

509 AM AST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure system and associated cold front moving

across the western Atlantic and high pressure anchored across the

north central Atlantic will continue to induce a south to southeast

wind flow across the region through at least Saturday. Mid to upper

level ridge will continue to gradually erode aloft today through

Saturday as a polar trough will move across the west Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing winds are expected to remain from the

south to southeast today with a gradual decrease in moisture advection

during the rest of the day and into the weekend. However patches of

shallow low to mid level moisture and a few showers will move across

the regional waters and affect portions of the islands during the

rest of the morning hours. Thereafter mostly sunny skies and fair

weather expected with only a few afternoon showers possible mainly

along and near the north coastal sections of Puerto rico as well

as over portions of the northern Virgin islands. Shower activity

will be limited today as an overall drying trend is expected.

For Saturday...mostly fair weather skies expected under a prevailing

light to moderate south to southeast wind flow. Slightly warmer afternoon

high temperatures are forecast for today and Saturday along the northern

half of PR and around the San Juan metro area, as lesser cloud cover

is expected. On Sunday and into early next week, winds are to become

more easterly one again and increase as high pressure ridge will build

north and west of the region once again. By then, expect a slight increase

in passing trade wind low level clouds and showers especially during

the late evening and early morning hours. Shower activity during the

day should however be limited and of short durations due to the increasing

trade winds and strengthening cap inversion aloft. So far no significant

weather feature in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying

area with VCSH possible across the Leewards and USVI taf sites due

to small areas of low level moisture embedded in the trades, moving

across the region until 24/15Z. Southeast winds will continue light

and variable until 24/14Z, increasing to 10-15 knots after 24/14Z

with sea breeze variations. Mountain obscurations likely until

24/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continued to arrive across the local

Atlantic waters and passages is still expected to peak this

morning. Buoy 41043 suggests offshore Seas now near 9 feet and

between 11-12 secs while the near shore buoys suggest Seas near 6

feet around 11 secs. Small craft advisories are in effect for the

Atlantic waters and local passages. Small craft should exercise

caution elsewhere except for the near shore coastal waters of

west and south Puerto Rico. There is a high risk of rip currents

for the Northwest through northeast coastlines of PR as well as

Culebra and the northern U.S Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 73 86 75 / 20 0 30 20

STT 82 72 84 73 / 30 10 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Feb 25, 2017 4:10:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Feb 25, 2017 4:10:41 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

418 AM AST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary

across the western Atlantic in combination with a surface high

pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to produce a

southeasterly wind flow across the region until at least Sunday. A

strong surface high pressure will move over the southwestern

Atlantic on Sunday. As this happens, the local wind is expected to

shift from the east on Sunday and from the East to east-northeast

on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under a southeast wind flow, Doppler weather radar

detected isolated showers moving northwestward across the U.S.

Virgin Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and

early this morning. Under an stable weather pattern, only small

patches of moisture associated with the southeasterly wind flow

are expected to affect the eastern and southeastern sections of

Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, but mostly sunny

skies are expected across most of the region. The limited moisture

in combination with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence and

other local effect are still expected to produce some cloudiness

and showers across interior and northwest Puerto Rico this

afternoon, but not widespread or significant precipitation is

expected. Under an east southeast low level wind flow, warmer

than normal temperatures are expected this afternoon mostly across

the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

As the low pressure center an associated frontal boundary moves

northeastward toward the northwest Atlantic, a strong surface high

pressure is expected to move across the southwestern Atlantic.

This feature will induce an easterly low level wind flow across

the region on Sunday and an east to east-northeast wind flow by

Monday. An increase in wind speed is also expected as the surface

high pressure strengthens north of the region. Dry and generally

stable conditions are expected to continue over the region today

and Sunday. By early next week, a prefrontal trough will move back

across the region, increasing the frequency of trade wind showers

across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds at all TAF sites through the fcst prd. Few

clds FL025..FL060...SKC abv. Isold -SHRA/SHRA. Prevailing east to

southeast wind flow at 10 knots or less except for local sea breeze

variations along the coastal areas. Wnds fm se 5-15 kts blo FL200...

bcmg fm SW to W and incr w/ht abv. No sig operational or wx impact

attm.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas between 5 and 7 feet across

the offshore Atlantic Waters early this morning. Seas are expected

to decrease to 4 to 6 feet by mid morning and will continue to

slowly subside today. Beach goers should exercise caution due to a

high risk of rip currents for the northwest to northeast facing

beaches of Puerto Rico and for the northern facing beaches of

Culebra and the northern USVI. Small Craft Advisory is in effect

until early this morning for the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

STT 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

&&

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

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tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

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Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Feb 10, 2017 4:25:17 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 11, 2017 4:35:29 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 12, 2017 4:45:45 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 14, 2017 5:11:40 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 15, 2017 5:09:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 16, 2017 5:02:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 17, 2017 5:05:38 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 18, 2017 5:10:38 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 19, 2017 4:24:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 20, 2017 4:26:43 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 21, 2017 4:14:42 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 22, 2017 4:14:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 23, 2017 3:55:26 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 24, 2017 3:58:36 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Feb 25, 2017 4:10:41 GMT -6

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