Puerto Rico Weather

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 21, 2014 4:23:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2014 4:23:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
MONA PASSAGE ARE RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL CLEAR WEST OF THE PASSAGE THIS MORNING NEAR OR SOON
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND IN
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SHOWN BY
SSMI AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGES. 00Z GFS HAS A NICE HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND SUGGESTS A HIGH NORTH TO SOUTH
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER PR/USVI AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. WRF AND NAM TAKE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH...STILL OVER PR. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER PR THIS MORNING
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FLOW...A
CURRENTLY COOL ISLAND AND RELATIVE LACK OF CURRENT UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY.

WIND FLOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AT ANY LEVEL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INSTEAD
DEPENDENT MORE ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING OCCURS AND WHERE SEA
BREEZES SET UP. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE SPREADING BUT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE WEST BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS. GFS SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 18Z TODAY OVER WEST AND SOUTH PR...EXPECT
MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER WEST PR WHERE THE
BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND RESULTANT SEA BREEZES FOCUS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ON MON BUT REBOUNDS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON MON NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES FROM TUE-THU.
CONVECTION AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TSRA TOPS TO
FL400-450 MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER 21/16Z AREAS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS ELY UP TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL IS MOVING WESTWARD NORTHEAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BUOY 41044 IS CURRENTLY RECORDING 5 FT SEAS AND ABOUT A
FOOT HIGHER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THESE SEAS WILL PASS
NORTH OF PR ON MON AND MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. MAINTAINING 4 FT IN
COASTAL WATERS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 40 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 22, 2014 4:20:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2014 4:20:24 GMT -6

Good morning. Tropical Wave will bring plenty of rain to PR and adjacent islands today thru Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK.
TROPICAL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TUESDAY...INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY...INDUCING
A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI AND THE EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TIL 22/10Z. THEREAFTER...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. VCTS/VCSH LIKELY AT
TKPK AND TNCM FM 22/10Z-22/15Z THEN SPREADING OVR RMNDR OF TAF SITES
AFT 22/15Z-22/23Z AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS FM NE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BCMG FM E-ESE AT
10-15 KTS AFT 22/14Z. L/LVL WNDS FM E- ENE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL200
BCMG MAINLY LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL 350. HIGHER SFC WND GUST NR
CONVCT ACTVTY DURG PRD.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE GRIDS OTHER THAN THE
ADDITION OF MORE WEATHER TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IN
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY
BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 78 / 60 50 50 30
STT 88 79 87 78 / 70 50 50 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 23, 2014 4:19:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2014 4:19:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGION. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2.00 INCHES INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR UNTIL
ABOUT 23/08Z. THEREAFTER...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START
AFFECTING THE TKPK AND TNCM TERMINALS...THEN TIST AND TISX A FEW
HOURS AFTER THAT AND SO ON AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PR...IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 23/16Z WHERE TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEREFORE...BOATERS
SHOULD AVOID THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 60 20 30 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 60 50 50 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 24, 2014 4:15:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2014 4:15:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED SEP 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 730
MILES NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA WILL EXTEND A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT
REMAIN IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BE JOINED BY ANOTHER HIGH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FADE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND GRADIENTS WILL
RELAX DURING THAT TIME. NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS IN THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN CREATING
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL BUT LESSEN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ONLY TO PEAK AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
NOT IN THE WESTERN SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WERE OBSERVED ON RADAR.
THE GFS WAS GENERALLY DRIER THAN THE NAM5 TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND CURRENT FORECAST OUT 5 DAYS REPRESENTS THE
NAM5 TEMPERED BY THE GFS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS RAIN
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOWER LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT EVEN AT
LOW EBB PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY DROP TO 1.70 INCHES BEFORE
SPIKING BACK UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS.

THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO
SPAWN INCREASINGLY FREQUENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS
SHOWS 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND MINUS 5 DEGREES
TODAY TO MINUS 8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP
IN THE LIFTED INDEX FROM MINUS 4 DEGREES TO MINUS 8 DEGREES. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE INTENSE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL STILL
FAIRLY HIGH ON SATURDAY...14.5 KFT...AND RISING FROM THEN ON...WOULD
EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OCCURRENCES AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WINDS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MODERATE...BUT IN PUERTO
RICO TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLOODING
OF LARGE RIVERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LESSENING
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT CAN FALL IN ANY ONE
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PASSING -SHRA CREATING VCSH
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. BETWEEN
24/16Z-21Z...SHRA/TSRA CREATING MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ.
VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
TJSJ/TJPS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-15
KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS BEFORE DAWN WERE UP TO 38 KFT
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BUT LESS THEN 30 KFT AROUND THE ISLAND EAST
AND NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 87 79 / 70 70 50 50
STT 88 78 88 79 / 50 70 40 60

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 25, 2014 4:28:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2014 4:28:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST THU SEP 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH FROM A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ALMOST 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW GREATLY ENHANCING INSTABILITY
IN THE AREA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL EDGE SLOWLY TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH INDUCED BY THE TUTT LOW WILL FORM
OVER THE AREA. A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA...FIRST WESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A MUCH
STRONGER WAVE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SINCE FLOW HAS TURNED MORE EAST NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND DISSIPATED A SHORT WAY INLAND. SHOWERS MOVED AT ALMOST
20 MPH SO THEY WERE BRIEF...NEVERTHELESS WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE
LUQUILLO RANGE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE RICH NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION IS
UPSTREAM. CURRENTLY MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE ATLANTIC AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE
AT UPPER LEVELS WILL EXTEND A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND
LOWER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL
RAMP UP INSTABILITY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRESENTLY THE NAM5 IS
DOING A BETTER JOB OF FORECASTING GOOD CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN THAN THE GFS AS IT DID
WEDNESDAY...THEREFORE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS SOLUTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND EXTRAPOLATED OUT TO SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS
BEEN INDICATING LIFTED INDICES OF UNDER 8 DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THE WINDS THAT OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY MINUS 5 OR 6...AM
CONCERNED THAT STRONGER CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY
OCCUR IN SOME PLACES IN WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO IF 500 MB
TEMPERATURES VERIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY THIS WOULD INCLUDE
AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER A SUBSTANTIAL
AREA IF MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN QUANTITIES GRATER THAN THE GFS
INDICATES. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE GFS MISSED THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY BY MORE THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AND HAS
A SIMILAR FORECAST OF DIPPING VALUES FOR TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TO AT LEAST 1.9 INCHES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SUSPECT THAT
THESE VALUES MAY BE TOO LOW. THEREFORE WILL CONSIDER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST DAY BEING SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY
DOWNWIND OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. THE GFS IS TRYING TO MOVE MUCH
DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY
UNTIL MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY...GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ERRATIC FROM
RUN TO RUN ALTHOUGH EVEN THE RUNS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
NOT IMPACT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS VERY MUCH. A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS TO PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WITH
IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AND THE BEST WIND FIELD REMAIN SOUTH OF US.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS. BETWEEN 25/16Z-22Z...SHRA/TSRA CREATING MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF
PR AND WESTERN PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. VCTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TJSJ/TJPS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
EAST AT 10-15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS BUT WILL INCREASE
NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CARIBBEAN WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 87 77 / 50 40 70 40
STT 87 78 88 78 / 40 40 60 60

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 26, 2014 4:18:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2014 4:18:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NOW APPROACHING PUERTO
RICO WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY FADE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE KEEPING INSTABILITY HIGH OVER
THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL THEN PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
SUSTAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME WEAKER...SPREAD SOUTHWEST
AND THEN SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
INVADE THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL IT IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH INDUCED BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ANOTHER PULSE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
ARRIVE IN A MUCH WEAKENED CONDITION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY GREW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE WATERS IN A LARGE SWATH OF THE
CARIBBEAN AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
FELL ON THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM SAN JUAN TO RIO GRANDE...BUT
AMOUNTS WERE LIMITED TO A TRACE. NO RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE
AIRPORTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 4:30 AM AST. FOR THIS
REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS ROBUST
STATE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT HAS STILL
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE INDUCED INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THE COOL POOL OF AIR
ALOFT. SINCE SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL THAT WANTED TO PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WAS HAMPERED BY THE OPPOSING LAND
BREEZES AND BY THE STABILITY OF GROUND COOLING BY RADIATION EVEN
IN THIS MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

AS HEATING FROM THE SUN INCREASES TODAY THE FULL MEASURE OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED TO FORM VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS...AT LEVELS UP THROUGH 30 KFT...
AND THE GENERAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS` HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WITH FLASH FLOODING IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS TO PUSH EVEN A FEW MAJOR RIVERS CLOSE
TO FLOOD STAGE SINCE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE GREATLY ADDED TO
GROUND SATURATION. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE KEPT. FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE LIKELY TO FORM TODAY AND WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE NOT
AS LIKELY TO FLOOD THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT LINES OF CLOUDS COULD
BECOME ORGANIZED IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT COULD DUMP CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AROUND 1 KFT TO NEAR 14 KFT ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE SMALL HAIL WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ZONE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL...EVEN THOUGH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. A MASS OF MUCH DRIER AIR ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CAN STILL
OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO
HEATING...MUCH LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THE DRYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
ON THE NORTH COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
MONTH...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY THE MID 90S
IN THE MORE INLAND COASTAL AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING THOSE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ISLAND-
WIDE. BUT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS
CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING IN OR PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK EXPECTED THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 26/16Z...+TSRA EXPECTED AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ.
THEREFORE...TEMPO PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY AS THE STORMS
PASS BY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED ABOVE 8 KFT TODAY AND TOMORROW IN AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXCEPT FOR GENERALLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SOME WEAK SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST PUSHING SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET
IN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTING ARE EXPECTED AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 88 77 / 70 60 80 50
STT 87 77 88 79 / 50 80 80 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 27, 2014 4:20:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2014 4:20:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST TIP OF PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AND
BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MUCH STRONGER LOW ALMOST 1000 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TIP OF THE TROUGH OF THAT LOW WILL
CALVE OFF A WEAK LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY THAT WILL
APPROACH WITHIN 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THAT AREA AND THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE ONE THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PUSH A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE MONA CHANNEL TO COLOMBIA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING TODAY
AND FINISHING TUESDAY. THE AXIS OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE CHARACTER AND INTENSITY OF THE WEATHER
WILL BE COLORED MAINLY BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE AREA
GENERATING INSTABILITY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AROUND
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ONSHORE IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...EXITING THE NORTH COAST AS
LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO AND DISSIPATED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BUT MOST OF
PUERTO RICO WAS DRY OVERNIGHT. SAINT CROIX HAD ONLY TWO ONE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BETWEEN 10 AND 11 LAST NIGHT AND SAINT
THOMAS DID NOT REPORT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

OWING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND GENEROUS MOISTURE IN THE AREA
CONVECTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AT WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DUE TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS THE LIFTED INDEX
FORECAST BY THE GFS DOES NOT RISE ABOVE MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND TOUCHES MINUS 9 DEGREES AT 28/12Z.
HENCE SHOWERS...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...DURING THE DAYTIME AT LEAST...OVER PUERTO RICO`S
NORTHERN HALF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR AS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW
OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST AND/OR INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR AWAY ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MASS OF DRIER AIR...TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND...ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS NUMEROUS...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE THE CONDITIONS JUST MENTIONED.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FADING DURING THE WEEK CONDITIONS WILL
TEMPER SOMEWHAT...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REDEVELOPS NEAR THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 28/00Z WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY OVER EASTERN PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN
THRU THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REMAINS WEAK AND RIDDLED WITH SMALL LOWS. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 90 78 / 70 50 50 20
STT 87 77 89 78 / 90 50 40 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 28, 2014 4:25:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2014 4:25:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF
HAITI TO NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EAST TODAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL CROSS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT GREATLY WEAKENED. SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO FORM IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC MID
WEEK WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LOBE REMAINING NEAR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WEAKLY THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OF THE
AREA. DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND IS ONLY
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW TRAVERSING THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
BEFORE PASSING THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
DRIER WEATHER FILLS IN BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST SHOWERS HAD CLEARED OFF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 6 PM AST...AND BY 11 PM IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NO LONGER BE NEEDED. SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY
HAVE RE-DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES AND WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SHOWERS ALSO PASSED OVER SAINT THOMAS AND WERE LIKELY HEAVIER OVER
THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND THAN WAS MEASURED AT THE AIRPORT.

BEFORE THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO FADE...THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG...THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT ITSELF TODAY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS AS
INDICATED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR MINUS 8 DEGREES AND A
LIFTED INDEX FORECAST TO BE THE SAME. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. OTHERWISE A GENERAL
DRYING TREND WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE LIGHTLY AT LOWER LEVELS AND WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE EASTERN
END OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAN IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.

LOWER MOISTURE AND THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOWER POPS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A
VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO TO HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THE
GFS IS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA THIS MRNG BUT MOISTURE DECREASE TDY. PD SHRA/TSRA
IN BTWN 28/16-29/00Z OVR NW PR WI OBSCD MTNS AND POSSIBLE MVFR IN TSRA AT
TJBQ. OTHERWISE XPCT VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU MON WITH ISOLD SHRA. WIND SFC-
FL150 SE-SW 5-12 KT BCMG LGT/VRBL LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THRU
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 3 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE STRONGEST SOUTH AND LIKELY
NO MORE THAN 4 FEET THE ENTIRE TIME IN ANY OF OUR LOCAL WATERS. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 86 81 90 81 / 20 10 10 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 29, 2014 4:34:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2014 4:34:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAVE PUSHED HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATED AN BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
THE PR/USVI REGION. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STABLE AND EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18-21Z. SE WIND
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED AT 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 77 91 78 / 10 10 20 20
STT 87 78 89 81 / 10 20 20 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 30, 2014 4:14:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2014 4:14:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 92 78 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 80 89 80 / 40 40 40 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 1, 2014 4:32:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 4:32:09 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER SAINT CROIX AND VIEQUES. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE FROM 1.5 THIS MORNING THROUGH
AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...VERY DRY AIR...WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN EVEN DRIER AIR...IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1.00
INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE VCSH AT LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THEN...
VCSH EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-21Z AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH POSSIBLE MTN TOP
OBSCD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT EXPECTED BELOW 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 89 79 89 80 / 20 50 50 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 2, 2014 4:17:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 4:17:51 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE DOESN`T HAVE TOO MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL COINCIDE
WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THIS COMBINATION WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE....VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
AS LOW AS 1.00 INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY BELOW 5 FEET
EVERYWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS ONLY. 4 FOOT SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 30 20 20 0
STT 89 79 88 77 / 50 20 20 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 3, 2014 4:28:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2014 4:28:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST FRI OCT 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS PR/USVI REGION. SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND ALSO SUPPRESS THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AIR MASS
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN
FACT...CIMMS/MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ADVECTING OVER PR/USVI
EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO 1.1 INCHES AND A STRONG CAP INVERSION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AN
UNUSUAL SAHARAN DUST EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD DUST PARTICLES OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING HAZY SKIES
AND REDUCING SOMEWHAT THE VISIBILITIES. UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AIR
MASS AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. THEN...THE UPPER LOW/TUTT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEAKENS
ALLOWING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO FADE AWAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 03/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL BETWEEN 2-4 FEET. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS OF 16 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL NNE SWELLS WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 78 / 0 0 0 10
STT 91 78 88 78 / 10 10 10 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 4, 2014 4:29:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2014 4:29:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT OCT 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW MEANDERING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA HOLD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. BASED ON LATEST DUST MODEL OUTPUT...
SKIES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS SAL
WEAKENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 900MB WILL COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM...NEAR TWO INCHES...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THURSDAY`S MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE.

THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS W PR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....
AND TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TROUGHINESS AT
UPPER LEVELS NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUST
HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN P6SM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS AFTER 04/11Z FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 04/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY RAISE SEAS SLIGHTLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 77 / 0 0 10 10
STT 90 77 88 77 / 0 0 10 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 5, 2014 4:41:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2014 4:41:34 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SUN OCT 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE IS FORECAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAZY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW RIDGE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. BASED ON LATEST DUST MODEL
OUTPUT...SKIES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS SAL WEAKENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900MB WILL COLLAPSE LATE MONDAY
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OF A FEW
TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SW PR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS AT UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE SW ATLC WILL CROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEK ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 5-15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY THEN BUILD 3-5 FT MON IN MIXED
ENE WIND WAVES AND NNE SWELLS. THEN SEAS DROP 2-4 FT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 0 10 10 40
STT 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 10 40

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2014 4:23:15 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2014 4:20:24 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2014 4:19:49 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2014 4:15:25 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2014 4:28:48 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2014 4:18:24 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2014 4:20:57 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2014 4:25:56 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2014 4:34:30 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2014 4:14:24 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 4:32:09 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 4:17:51 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2014 4:28:56 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2014 4:29:03 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2014 4:41:34 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings