Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 6, 2014 4:29:06 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2014 4:29:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST MON OCT 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTH. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN NO WEATHER WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SAHARAN DUST HAZE CONTINUE TODAY. THE SAHARAN DUST
CONCENTRATION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS DOMINANT FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS CHANGE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE MOVING IN
AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AND MAYBE WEDNESDAY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HOWEVER THETA-E IS DECENT ON
THURSDAY JUST BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 06/15Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT AFTER 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FT MON-TUE IN MIXED WAVES AND
NNE SWELLS THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT TUE NIGHT ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 0 40 40 40
STT 88 79 88 79 / 0 40 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 7, 2014 4:20:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2014 4:20:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST TUE OCT 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST IS FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS MOVING IN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND AROUND THE USVI TODAY. ALSO...THE
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS
STEADY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAYBE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER
THE USVI...CAUSING SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS TO HOW
MUCH IMPACT IT WILL HAVE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER. AT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR
EAST NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST...THIS MEANS THAT SINKING
MOTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THETA-E AT 850MB. ALSO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST AT BEST AND MOSTLY STAYING
OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...NOT QUITE MAKING IT TO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...HAVING SAID THAT...WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA AT THE
LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. AFT 07/16Z...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR AND THIS MAY CAUSE
VCTS AT TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS...STRONGER NEAR
SHOWERS...AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED TODAY. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOME MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 8, 2014 8:08:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 8:08:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED OCT 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR BY THU THEN WEAKEN. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT WILL
MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING THROUGH TODAY WITH
SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THU WITH PASSAGE OF TUTT INDUCED SFC TROF.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TODAY ON THE SOUTH COAST ON NNE STEERING
WINDS. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE CNTRL CORDILLERA AND
REMAIN STATIONARY DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE. ON FRI...THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SRLY WITH NRN
SLOPES/NCNTRL COAST MORE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SLP`S AND THUS LACK OF
FORCING WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND WILL
BE MORE OF THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY. OVERALL...PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BUT HUMIDITY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PR...MAY LEAD TO VCTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJPS
AND TJMZ BTWN 08/17Z-21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES
UNDER A COL REGION. OTHERWISE...WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 2-4 FT AND AT TIMES 1-3 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 86 77 / 30 10 10 10
STT 81 80 81 80 / 30 10 10 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 9, 2014 4:02:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 4:02:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST THU OCT 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE EXPECTED OVR PR TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FRI THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING TODAY. DESPITE THAT...
HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE SRN SLOPES WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING SWD ON LIGHT NRLY STEERING
FLOW. BROAD LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
STEERING FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE SSW FRI AND SAT AS TROF AXIS
SHIFTS NW. THIS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORM ON THE NRN SLOPES
FRI-SAT WITH CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE NCOAST/METRO AREA.

TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WX PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT THE 09/00Z GFS RUN HAS
A SPURIOUS LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS PR COLUMBUS DAY. THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
THIS LOW HARDLY HAS ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO
THIS SOLUTION IS BEING COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...NE TRADES WILL CARRY PASSING SHRA OVER
NORTHERN PR/USVI AND TNCM/TKPK THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS AS SHRAS PASS BY. AFTN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS BETWEEN
09/18Z-22Z. N-NE WIND FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS BLO FL250...SHIFTING FM THE
SW LATE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI BECOMING SOUTHEAST SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. INLAND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. SO NO SIG
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 78 / 20 10 50 10
STT 81 80 81 80 / 20 10 10 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 10, 2014 4:00:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 4:00:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES NNE OF PR WILL MOVE NW OR NNW AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER TUTT ESTABLISHES OVR THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COL AREA WILL BE OVR PR TODAY SUPPORTING VERY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. EXPECT SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FORMING OVR THE CNTRL CORDILLERA AND
THEN DRIFT NNE OR NE TOWARD METRO AREA. MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED
SAT-SUN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA WITH AREAL CVRG
OF CONVECTION DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. BOTH THE 10/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS MORE SUPPORT NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR A WEAK LOW
PRES TO FORM...THE MAJORITY OF 10/00Z GEFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MON TO INDICATE HIGHER
RAIN PROBS WHEN COMPARED TO SAT AND SUN BUT CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT
THIS LOW PRES ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN
ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING -SHRA/TSRA OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EASTERN PR MAY AFFECT NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND NRN USVI
TIL 10/12Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL FM 10/17Z-10/22Z MAINLY VCTY
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJNR AND CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. DURG WHICH TIME MVFR
CONDS WILL BE PSBL. SFC WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS TODAY THEN INCREASE UP TO 10 KT BY TUE. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 40 10 10 10
STT 87 80 87 81 / 40 10 10 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 11, 2014 4:12:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2014 4:12:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TODAY THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRIES TO
ESTABLISH AROUND 700 MB. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO PAST TWO DAYS.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ON THE NORTH COAST. STEERING FLOW THEN SHIFTS FROM THE
ENE SUN FOCUSING SHOWERS ON THE SW COAST.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS. IN GENERAL...THEY
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONLY A FEW GFES MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC LOW BUT THE MAJORITY STILL SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND THE ONES THAT SHOW A CLOSED
SFC LOW INDICATE A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN...THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WOULD FALL OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS (ZONE AMZ710) MON NIGHT
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING OVER PR
MON AND MON NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUE WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP A
"TAIL" OVR PR AS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUE. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
FOR ANY DECISIONS THAT NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE AROUND TNCM/TKPK CREATING BRIEF
MVFR CIGS. BETWEEN 11/17Z-22Z...TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ/TJBQ...PRODUCING MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LOW
LEVEL WIND FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AROUND 11/15Z...THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT AFTER
11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z TUE AS TROPICAL WAVE/INVEST 90L
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN VERY POOR ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL
WAVE..FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS AOB 20KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 81 / 40 0 10 40
STT 82 81 82 81 / 10 10 10 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 12, 2014 4:06:46 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 4:06:46 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL TRACK WWD NEXT 48
HRS PASSING OVR PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT. TUTT WILL THEN REMAIN
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EAST NORTHEAST
TODAY FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SUBSIDENCE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES
EAST OF THE LEEWARDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF THE
LEEWARDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH HEAVY T-STORM ACTIVITY
CONSOLIDATING NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR 17.1N AND 57.1W. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHY IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A TC WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING OVER THE USVI AND NE PR MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA ON THE
TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN USVI. IN THIS
AREA...GEFS AND SREF MEANS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FOR ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE
MORNING. SATELLITE BASED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM THE NESDIS SCAMPR
ALGORITHM SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ONE INCH RAINFALL IN SIX HOURS.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT SOUND LIKE A WHOLE LOT...THIS ALGORITHM HAS A
SIGNIFICANT LOW BIAS FOR TROPICAL RAINFALL AND EVALUATION OF THIS
PRODUCT HERE AT THE WFO INDICATES THIS IS PLENTY OF RAINFALL
CONSIDERING THE LOW BIAS AND THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF THE
SATELLITE PIXEL. WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF PR WILL SEE RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT DON`T THINK THE AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR DURATION
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. ALSO...THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY AND SOILS CAN ABSORB A LOT OF WATER. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECON AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY
AND HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WATER NOT
ANTICIPATING TS WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR PR AT THIS TIME. IF
ANYTHING IT WOULD BE THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
(MARINE ZONE AMZ710). REGARDLESS...PEOPLE IN PR AND USVI SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM NEXT 48 HRS FOR ANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
BACKSIDE OF TUTT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS OVER PR/USVI TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS/TJMZ. VCSH/VCTS AND
MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK DUE TO RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF TS CONDITIONS.
THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 82 88 77 / 10 50 80 80
STT 83 82 83 80 / 10 60 90 90

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 13, 2014 4:10:07 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2014 4:10:07 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WILL PLOW THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY
AND LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME DRYING
WILL BEGIN BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WETTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO UP TO THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT
WINDS AROUND GONZALO ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE CORE. AS
IT STRENGTHENS THIS WILL EXPAND.

BECAUSE THE TRACK OF GONZALO IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOME 60 TO 80
MILES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL TRACK YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS IN
PUERTO RICO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AND THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE CHANGES. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF GONZALO AND
WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 90S ON THE NORTH COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BY A FEW DEGREES AT
LEAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK. SINCE WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY NEXT TUESDAY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES BRIEFLY...THEY
RISE BACK TO 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AND THIS ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DECREASE IN THE LIFTED INDEX. CURRENTLY THE GFS SHOWS A
MINIMUM OF MINUS 7 DEGREES FOR THE LIFTED INDEX ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MAY ALSO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE DETAILS ON PRECAUTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS ON TROPICAL STORM
GONZALO MAY BE FOUND IN OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT OR H L S.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS
TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 13/12Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 13/16Z AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AFTER 13/18Z WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES IN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KT INCREASING DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY AND GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WINDS AND THE POSITION
OF GONZALO DURING ITS JOURNEY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT LEAVES
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SEAS COULD EASILY REACH 20 FEET IN
THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO RISE RAPIDLY TO ABOVE 10 FEET WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 85 75 / 80 90 90 50
STT 87 77 87 79 / 90 90 90 60

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 14, 2014 4:56:10 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2014 4:56:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAND AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GONZALO SHOWED SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO
SO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
CLEARLY DEPICTED THE CENTER CORE OF THE HURRICANE ENTERING AND
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN BANDS SPIRALING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BUT
WILL STILL BRING PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TODAY. DUE TO PRESENT
MOVEMENT OF GONZALO AND THE OVERALL SCENARIO...EXPECTATIONS FOR
RAINFALL HAVE NOW BEEN LOWERED TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 6 INCHES MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO COMBINED WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY... IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR TNCM/TKPK BUT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST MAINLY UNTIL 14/16Z. WINDS OVER PR/USVI BELOW
FL150 FROM NORTH NORTHEAST AT 18-30 KNOTS BECOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 14-25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND OVER TNCM/TKPK BELOW FL150 FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 25-40 KNOTS BECOMING
FROM THE SOUTH AT 20-30 KNOTS LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE GONZALO...A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL NOON AST TODAY FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREAFTER...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. SEAS
AT BUOY 41043 HAD RISEN TO 12-14 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD
RETURN TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 78 / 70 40 40 10
STT 87 78 88 79 / 70 60 60 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 15, 2014 4:18:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2014 4:18:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALSO DETECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE GONZALO NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO.

AS GONZALO MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING A FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOCAL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD. FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME FROM THE EAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT
A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AT
ALL TAF SITES AS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. FEW SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 15/12Z
SFC WINDS OVER PR/USVI LGT/VRB TIL 15/14Z THEN OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KTS DURG THE PRD. L/LVL WNDS FM SW AT 10-15 KTS BLO
FL200 BCMG MORE SRLY ABV AND INCR TO NR 40 KTS AT FL 400. NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41053 NEAR SAN JUAN HAVE DROPPED TO 6 FEET
AND SEAS IN RINCON IS INDICATED 6.5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT LONGER IN EFFECT. SEAS AT THE NORTHERN
BUOY...41043...REACHED 19 FEET YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE NOW
DROPPED TO ONLY 9 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 76 / 40 0 50 30
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 16, 2014 3:50:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 3:50:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN AS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE GONZALO NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS GONZALO MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER
EVENT CAN BE SEEN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TODAY THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW SHRA
OVR COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI MOV NNE STEERED BY A
PREVAILING LIGHT SRLY WND FLOW. FEW TCU OVR ATL WATERS N OF USVI AND
ISOLD CB MT FL300 BTW SE PR AND STX TIL 16/10Z. SFC WND AT TAF SITES
LGT AND VRB WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 16/14Z. FEW VCSH WILL
REMAIN PSBL AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL BETWEEN 16/17-21Z...IMPACTING MAINLY TJSJ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS. WND FM SE AT 10-15 KTS BLO FL250...THEN INCR TO 35 KTS NR
FL350...NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 77 / 40 30 30 10
STT 87 77 87 77 / 20 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 17, 2014 4:15:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2014 4:15:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL ROTATE OVER PUERTO RICO SUNDAY FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF THE UP COMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER AND AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY TO VERY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA FORMING A
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND TRADE WIND
FLOW INCREASES DURING THE WEEK. THIS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS LINGERED OVER A FEW AREAS IN PUERTO RICO
UNTIL ALMOST MIDNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER LOCAL
WATERS AND FLOWED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION AROUND A HIGH OVER
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
SOUNDING FORECAST WINDS OVER SAN JUAN 7 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 25
KFT WITH CALM WINDS FORECAST FROM 5 TO 12 KFT. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS A LAYER FROM 5 TO 10 KFT WITH LESS THAN CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY THAT WILL DELAY MOST SHOWER FORMATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY
AS THE LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE DIMINISHES FROM 1.9
INCHES THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON SATURDAY OFF-SETTING
THIS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AT UPPER LEVELS WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER PRECIPITABLE WATER TO GENERATE A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE SPIKES ON TUESDAY
AND SHOWER CHANCES ALSO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO. SHOWERS WILL ALSO GENERALLY INCREASE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AFTER SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD RAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 17/16-23Z SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR CREATING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES
FORMING AFTER 17/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE SENDING SWELL INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CONNECTING PASSAGES...BUT THESE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEK EVEN AS THE PERIOD LENGTHENS
TO AS MUCH AS 14 SECONDS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 18, 2014 4:19:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2014 4:19:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND BETWEEN
HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EAST OF WASHINGTON DC AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS
FORMED BUT HAD NOT YET PENETRATED ONSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AGAIN FORECAST SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST...HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER FORMATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO ALSO FORM IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING. SEA BREEZES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE
FLOW TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
COOLER...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES FORMING AFTER 18/14Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 18/18-23Z
CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT
TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THEN...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL ALSO ALLOW
SEAS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 78 / 10 20 20 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 10 20 20 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 19, 2014 4:20:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2014 4:20:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 10 20 20 30
STT 89 79 88 77 / 20 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 20, 2014 4:25:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 4:25:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 30 30 30 30
STT 89 78 87 77 / 40 20 30 30

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

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