Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 21, 2014 4:09:08 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 4:09:08 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 77 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 20 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 23, 2014 4:05:48 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2014 4:05:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAP AT LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION...IF ANY. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. IN
ADDITION...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THE IMPACT OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PR/USVI THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO LIKELY LIMIT TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 76 / 20 40 40 0
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 40 40 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 24, 2014 4:18:59 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2014 4:18:59 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 76 / 40 0 20 10
STT 88 79 88 78 / 40 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 25, 2014 4:11:11 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2014 4:11:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVING
LITTLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED...WITHOUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEK UNDER THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 25/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT
WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 78 88 79 / 40 40 40 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 26, 2014 4:41:28 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 4:41:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT.

NO CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AS TROPICAL WAVE OR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY LOOKS THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER
MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ
BETWEEN 17-21Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS COULD AFFECT TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH AT TJSJ
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO 15-20 KT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADES WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY THEN BUILD 4-6 FT TUE-WED IN
MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 20
STT 88 77 89 79 / 10 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 27, 2014 4:23:31 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2014 4:23:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST MON OCT 27 2014

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TUESDAY...RE-BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT CROIX. MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WERE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND WINDWARD
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS.

WEAKENING OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES WILL RESULT IN A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE AREA AS SOON AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED NEAR 53W...HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND A
MINOR CIRCULATION. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH TROPICAL WAVES REMAINING
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED
EACH MORNING ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND RISING MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTION OF PR...WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ
BETWEEN 27/18-22Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 27/13Z...BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE EAST AFT 27/13Z
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING
SOMEWHAT. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 20 10 20 40
STT 87 77 87 75 / 10 20 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 28, 2014 4:24:03 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2014 4:24:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL COLLAPSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS...THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS.

UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS A RESULT OF LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. ALTHOUGH...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LINGER TODAY...
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED WEST OF 70W. BASED ON NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GUIDANCE...DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATED JUST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
ASSOCIATED BULK OF MOISTURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THEREFORE...A WETTER TREND IS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AS THE WETTEST DAY. EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND RISING MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY IN AND AROUND TKPK/TNCM TODAY...CAUSING AT
LEAST MVFR CONDS. VCSH FOR PR AND USVI IN THE MORNING WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SW-PR. NO TEMPO ON TJMZ TAF ATTM
SINCE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL STAY JUST
OUTSIDE THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...EXPECT TSRA FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR AFTER 28/17Z. MVFR CONDS FOR TJMZ AND TJPS SHALL NOT
BE RULED OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 28/12Z...BECOMING E-NE
THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 17 KT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS THEN DIMINISH WED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS.
SEAS BUILD 3-5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.
SEAS THEN SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 10 40 40 30
STT 82 75 89 77 / 10 40 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Oct 29, 2014 3:59:11 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2014 3:59:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE COMBINES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO MAY OBSERVE THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THAT AREA
WHICH WILL THEN CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WITH
IT WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2
INCHES AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AT 850MB WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 340 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A NICE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FOR A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRIDAY WITH A LESS ACTIVE DAY. EVEN THOUGH
A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ALL CONVECTION...SO AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY OBSERVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...ONCE AGAIN CAUSING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOT AFFECT PR OR
THE USVI DIRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JSJ... USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER 29/16Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER
AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JPS THROUGH
29/22Z. NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND WED BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
2-4 FT BECOMING 2-3 FT THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 40 30 50 40
STT 88 77 88 78 / 50 40 40 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 30, 2014 4:22:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2014 4:22:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...IT
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOFT ON FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. THEN A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ELIMINATING THEM COMPLETELY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z... SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT
JSJ THROUGH 30/23Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
S TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 50 20 50 20
STT 86 78 88 79 / 50 40 40 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 31, 2014 4:13:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2014 4:13:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND ADJANCENT WATERS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEARING ONGOING OVER WRN PR. TROF AXIS WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
STILL POSSIBLE OVR NRN PR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL SHARPLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CUTS OFF OVR THE SW ATLC. 31/00Z ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFS SHOWING AN ANOMALOUS DEEP CUTOFF OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVR ERN PR DURING THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND WRN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WITH COOLER TEMPS/LOWER HEIGHTS IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A SIG RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL ON WED WITH WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR SVRL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE USVI WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WITH AT TISX AND TIST TIL 31/12Z...WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY. VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR TNCM. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NW-PR WHICH
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ BETWEEN 31/18Z AND 31/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH OR SSE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD 5-7 FT BY MON NIGHT IN NNW SWELLS AND ENE
WIND WAVES. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLC AND NW PR BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 81 / 50 0 10 10
STT 89 82 89 82 / 20 10 10 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 1, 2014 4:24:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2014 4:24:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. A CUTOFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIONA TUE NIGHT AND MEANDER
THERE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE FILLING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVR NW PR
TODAY AND OVER WRN OR SW PR SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN ON MON BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T GREAT. HEIGHTS ALOFT
FALL RAPIDLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE SOUTHWEST ATLC
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. AN INDUCED
SFC TROF FORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AIDING IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH FREQ SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST AND ATLC COASTAL
WATERS. UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING WHEN MCS FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER ATLC COASTAL WATERS IN A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND DEFORMATION AXIS NORTHEAST OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN THU WITH WX CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AND RISK OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN CARIBBEAN WL PASS MAINLY S OF
ISLANDS TDY THO SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA XPTD NW PR. CHC MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA
AT TJMZ/TJBQ WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. ELSEWHERE ISOLD MVFR AT MOST. WIND
BLO FL150 ESE 5-15 KT BCMG E 12-20 KT TONITE/SUN.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES RETURN TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD RAPIDLY
MON AFTERNOON IN NW SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES WITH SEAS 6-8 FT LIKELY.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG
WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TODAY. RECORD HIGH
FOR TODAY IS 93F SET BACK IN 1978. TEMPS COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON THROUGH WED DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS...DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 78 / 10 10 10 10
STT 82 81 82 81 / 10 10 10 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 2, 2014 4:31:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2014 4:31:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY. DEEP CUTOFF
LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DOM REP TUE NIGHT AND TRACK EWD AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW LOCATED OVER THE CARIB COASTAL
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND MON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. 00Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND
MORE EWD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW FOR EARLY NOV
AND IS SLATED TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING. THE GUIDANCE THE PAST 24-48 HRS HAS BEEN
TRENDING OVERALL WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING RAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WED EVENING. THE 0-6KM
WIND FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING
AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS IS
LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW FOR MID WEEK
IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT INCREASES AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
MORE OMINOUS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN
ON THURSDAY BUT PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD GUARANTEES THAT
THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT SAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE 02/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ AS
ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT OF PR.
MOSTLY ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 02/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PULSES OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON
AND PEAK LATE WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WITH LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH SURF ADVZY CONDITIONS ON WED. ALSO...A
TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TUE-THU WILL KEEP WX
CONDITIONS STORMY OVER THE WATERS WITH SCT-NMRS TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 87 81 / 10 30 70 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 20 30 60 60

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 3, 2014 3:46:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2014 3:46:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST MON NOV 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER HISPANIOLA BY WED AND MAINTAIN VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS WILL FALL SHARPLY TODAY THROUGH WED EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER HISPANIONA BY WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EWD AND MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MUCH OF THIS WEEK
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DETAILS IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ARE CHALLENGING/DIFFICULT SO THE NEED TO STAY TUNED NEXT SVRL DAYS
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS. FOR TODAY...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MOST ACTIVE WX THIS
MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN BUT STILL WITH SOME CONVECTION OVER SW PR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

THINGS BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLC
COASTAL WATERS AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH CONVECTION LIKELY AFFECTING THE ATLC
COASTLINE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. DEEPENING TROF TUE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE DAY WITH MCS FORMATION
LIKELY OVER ALL THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY AFFECT NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST PR AND THE USVI GIVEN SSE STEERING FLOW. ON
WED...GFS INDICATES SFC DIVERGENCE OVR PR SUGGESTING WE WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
TYPE OF DETAIL CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES ON LEFT SIDE OF 50-KT 250 MB JET
STREAK...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
THE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. 0-6 KM FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH SRN PR LIKELY TO BE MOST AFFECTED.
EVEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE WX CONDITIONS DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH AND VCTS INTO THE MORNING. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE 03/18-22Z IN AND
AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ AS ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SW QUADRANT OF PR. MOSTLY ESE WINDS OF 5-10 KT...BCMG 10-15 KTS
BY LATE MORNING...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 03/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS OF 6-8 FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED
WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE THEN DIMINISH WED. VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH NMRS STRONG CONVECTION WITH MCS FORMATION LIKELY TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 81 85 75 / 70 70 70 60
STT 82 81 81 75 / 60 60 60 60

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 3, 2014 18:21:50 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2014 18:21:50 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
751 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

PRC051-135-137-143-145-040145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0230.141103T2351Z-141104T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
751 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA...DORADO...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 745 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS A RESULT...THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6624 1848 6617 1842 6618 1842 6620
1833 6621 1835 6629 1837 6630 1836 6635
1838 6644 1849 6644

$$

ER

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
745 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

PRC023-055-059-079-121-125-153-040230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0229.141103T2345Z-141104T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-LAJAS PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-
YAUCO PR-CABO ROJO PR-
745 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...LAJAS...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...
YAUCO AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 741 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
APPROACHING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
RUNOFF OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS...
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH 1030 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6721 1814 6718 1814 6714 1810 6711
1810 6708 1813 6707 1816 6702 1814 6697
1813 6677 1800 6676 1795 6683 1795 6705
1796 6706 1795 6707

$$

ER

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 3, 2014 18:34:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2014 18:34:21 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
819 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

PRC019-039-047-073-101-105-107-040230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0231.141104T0019Z-141104T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-MOROVIS PR-
NARANJITO PR-OROCOVIS PR-
819 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COROZAL...JAYUYA...MOROVIS...NARANJITO
AND OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 815 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
APPROACHING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
RUNOFF OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6639 1833 6637 1836 6635 1832 6621
1825 6625 1824 6627 1818 6628 1818 6646
1816 6665 1825 6662 1824 6661 1828 6660
1830 6657 1833 6659 1837 6649 1837 6642

$$

ER

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

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