January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion

Even though we are going below freezing tonight, since we went above freezing this morning, do y'all foresee any road icing?

Good decision on their part. I was worried about school traffic tomorrow morning.

It's already 22.6 in Covington.

Cloud.cover.moved away from.us.... temps will drop more than forecast

Not really, since the roof tops of cars cool off much more than the air temperature with fairly calm winds it does not have to be 100% humidity or close to it to have frost, in another words your air temperature might be 20 degrees with a dewpoint of 13 but the temperature of the roof top has cooled down to 15 degrees much closer to the dewpoint for dew to form and freeze, just an example.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
442 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS AND CLIMATE...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS NOW ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND THIS IS BRINGING EITHER THE COLDEST
OR NEARLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THEIR COLDEST SINCE
FEBRUARY 1996 WHEN BATON ROUGE AND SLIDELL DROPPED TO 15 DEGREES.
NEW ORLEANS DROPPED TO 21 IN JANUARY 2010. A HARD FREEZE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL 9 AM THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND MODIFY
ALLOWING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE WARM UP IS MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
EXCEEDING GROUND AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING
ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN TONIGHT THERE WILL BE COMBINATION OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
VERY LIKELY LEAD TO FOG EPISODES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE OF LONG
DURATION IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE NOW
COLD TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS...BAYS...SOUNDS...TIDAL
MARSHES...SWAMPS AND RIVERS. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST CHANCE
TO SEE DENSE FOG IS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME
VERY LIGHT MIST DURING FOG...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION COULD INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH MEANS HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 50 TODAY...UPPER
50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY AND AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT UNSETTLED
WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING UP WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SUNDAY
AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE COLDER AIR THAT WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

&&

100
ASUS64 KLIX 301216
RTPLIX
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
616 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 12 HOURS
PRECIPITATION FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME

.BR LIX 0130 CS DH00/TAIRZX/DH06/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ

OBSERVATIONS FROM AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS

:ID STATION HIGH LOW 24-HOUR
PRECIP
ASD :SLIDELL : 36 / 17 / 0.00
BTR :BATON ROUGE : 36 / 17 / 0.00
BVE :BOOTHVILLE : 35 / 34 / 0.00
NEW :NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT APT : 36 / 31 / 0.00
MSY :NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL : 35 / 25 / 0.00
GPT :GULFPORT : 35 / 20 / 0.00
MCB :MCCOMB : 32 / 12 / 0.00
PQL :PASCAGOULA TRENT LOTT APT : 34 / 17 / 0.00

OBSERVATIONS FROM SUPPLEMENTAL AUTOMATED STATIONS

AUD :NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON : 37 / 28 / 0.00
BXA :BOGALUSA CARR FIELD : 35 / 15 / 0.00
BIX :BILOXI KEESLER AFB : 34 / 20 / 0.00
NBG :BELLE CHASSE : 36 / 24 / 0.00
GAO :GALLIANO : 37 / 26 / 0.00
HZR :NEW ROADS : 36 / 19 / 0.00
L38 :GONZALES REGIONAL AIRPORT : 35 / 19 / 0.00

.END