Post by thibodauxwx on Sept 24, 2015 15:23:31 GMT -6
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ida, located about 1200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
1. A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America. This system is not expected to develop during the next day or two as it moves north-northwestward across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days, conditions could become a little more favorable for development while the system moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 24, 2015 19:28:02 GMT -6
With the way this season has been, I think everyone just has a "yea right" attitude. Plus, the threat is looking minimal right now. I think if guidance was showing something serious, it may be a tad busier.
I really doubt the low pressure that will be forming in the southern GOM on Sunday will become a tropical storm, more and more is looking like it will have a tough time organizing with 30-60 knot SSW UL winds over its path, one thing that the GFS has been persistent on is the strong UL winds as the next UL trough digs down across the western GOM.
And the chances of development by the NHC remains at 20% this morning, with a low pressure forecasted to start developing on Sunday in the southern GOM, only two days away, that is a very low confidence that it will develop into a tropical storm. I don't blame them, how can it get tropical characteristics with 30-40 knots UL winds on top of it on Sunday and Monday with up to 60 knots on Tuesday!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 408 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT/LONG TERM... 850 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE WEST AND ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALL BUT CUT OFF CHANCES OF SH/TS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE NW AND WEAKEN ALOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA INTO TEXAS WILL DEEPEN AND DIG INTO NE MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED NORTHWARD. THE BEST DIFLUENT AREA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF CAUSING SFC PRESSURES TO DROP. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS UPPER DIFLUENT AREA BUT SHEAR PROFILES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEEPEN VERY MUCH. BUT A HYBRID SYSTEM...FRONTOGENETIC SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE OFF THE TABLE. PRESSURES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE EASTERN GULF WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CAUSING A MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. THE MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY. OVER MARINE AREAS IT SHOULD BE WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WHERE THE FEED OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE WILL BE QUITE A PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST AND WE SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. FARTHER WEST AND THOSE NUNBERS RAMP UPWARD. THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT BUT THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SHOULD NOT.