Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 17, 2015 13:56:46 GMT -6
Just in From Larry Cosgrove, Quick update about the impending major rainfall and thunderstorm event October 22 - 26 from NM through TX and LA.... All three of the models now say the same thing. Namely that the disturbed area over Mexico and Central America will give rise to a tropical depression or named storm in the Bay of Campeche in about 3 or 4 days. This feature will interact with the broad upper low now edging through the Desert and Intermountain Regions. The track of the surface low looks to be through Galveston Bay toward a merger with a stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. Here is the big problem. There may be a critical flood event from portions of Colorado and New Mexico into Texas and Louisiana as well as the Ozark Plateau. I will have full mapped and written details on upcoming weather in the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter this evening.
IMO, chances of a significant tropical or subtropical storm forming in the western GOM are decreasing steadily. 97E has formed over the Eastern Pacific, this would cause UL conditions to be not so great over the BOC as the Pacific system takes over, which by the way the current shear is analyzed at 30-50 knots over the BOC but forecasted to come down some over the next few days. However, the Euro and GFS continue to show that the EPAC system's energy will get pulled northward by an ULL over the SW US along with 92L's energy and may cause for a frontal type storm to form near the TX coast, offshore or inland. It still looks like a wet period could be ahead for TX and LA late next week. BTW, ignore the Euro's forecast past its 168 hr forecast, it continues to have problems with over deepening systems in that range, IMO.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Oct 19, 2015 5:03:08 GMT -6
The models seem to really have picked up on the shear, etc., and backed away from anything organized forming, as we have now lost the weak lemon. That being said, the GFS is still bullish on plenty of rain, for south La., esp, next Sunday and Monday. The Euro shows it also, though, possibly not as much, but the pattern is there. If nothing changes soon, I could see us moving this discussion back to the regular weather discussion. To give an idea of what the GFS is showing, I have put side by side, two shots of the GFS total precip. The one on the left is the total rain expected from now, to Saturday evening. The right, shows the total from now, until Monday evening. As you can see, this shows a possibility of some areas in south La. receiving between 4 and 8 inches, in about 2 days or so. Still a week out, so we shall see.
NOTE: Just after posting this, a 10% lemon was added back into the possibility, though it puts it along the southern Mexican coast.
Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 19, 2015 20:22:30 GMT -6
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A weak area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the northwestern Caribbean sea, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-level winds are marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation, land interaction is expected to preclude significant development while the disturbance moves slowly westward to west-northwestward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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