Winter Weather Threat 01/16-01/18

18z gfs backed off

What was it before?

It'll come back. Still a ways out and it's still showing moisture and cold. Basically gfs is showing the ingredients there but it's not putting it together for the snowfall map.

From the late afternoon discussion from the NWS Mobile:


LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The broad upper longwave
trough east of the Rockies over Canada, the U.S. and northern
Mexico will be reinforced and dig a little further southward
through Tuesday night as strong upper level impulses embedded in
the trough from the Great Lakes to the southern plains move
eastward. A 100 to 130 knot jet stream along the periphery of the
trough will move southeast, with the strongest upper level winds
occurring over the eastern conus Tuesday and Tuesday night,
putting our area in the right entrance region of the upper jet.
This will enhance lift across the area and could promote periods
of rain or a mix of rain and snow Tuesday afternoon.

A strong surface cold front will continue moving south across the
Gulf of Mexico, allowing very cold temperatures to advect into the
forecast area from the north through Tuesday night. Sub-freezing
temperatures are expected to push all the way to the gulf coast by
late Tuesday night, allowing the light rain to change over to all
snow as far south as the northern gulf.

Snow accumulations will be determined at a late time, but a blend
of the GFS and ECMWF currently have up to one inch snow north of
I-10. Snow accumulations may end up being even higher as the
thermal profiles may still be a bit a underdone. Dynamic cooling
in the lower levels due to evaporative cooling and the "dragging"
of cold air aloft closer to surface is sometimes not accounted for
in the models, and additional moisture may be drawn in ahead of
the system. This system is pushing through rather fast, so the
entire event will be less then 24 hours. Dry conditions will
follow Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front. Much below
normal temperatures will persist through the long term. /22

Can’t ever recall MOB talking about a potential winter event days in advance

TWC Moved the totals up from less than an inch to 1-3 inches 40 miles north of me in Alexandria, but left me at less than an inch. But as Zack says, I'm not buying into either of those forecasted totals, 40 miles is not very far, but I guess the difference could possibly be how long before the transition happens. I'll wait and see, and to be honest, I'd be happy with a couple of inches, as my wife is

If we get the wintry weather next week, what the timeframe? During the day or night?