And a year ago would you even believe that in 4 months from this date we would have been monitoring a potential winter weather event that would eventually drop 3-6 inches of snow in SE LA? We have had more measurable snows in the early December over the past 10 years than the previous 100+ years. At least here in Baton Rouge and SE LA.
Break out the space heaters, umbrellas, and warm socks, because the Southeast will see below normal winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above-average precipitation.
Since the spring, I have been alluding that one heck of a winter may be on the way. The question becomes how widespread and can it "run the table"? The European looks quite like the blend of 2002 and 2009, with its implications of all months having large-scale normal to below temperatures. I was waiting for it to come out to issue this because I am getting strong objective support to the idea that this winter could be as bad as 2013-14 or 2014-15.
None of the Decembers in the sample were "severe". Remember all the winters in the sample had a time where winter let up, whether it was a warm start like 2006 or 2014 or with back and forth. My fear is this has a chance to be more than just a focused 30-45 day period with times where it lets up.
I remember November and December 2013 being quite nice. We had plenty of days that we're bbelow normal in temps but they were so needed. I remember my first freeze being the week before Thanksgiving.It actually felt like fall. It was even betterwhen we turned bitterly cold for most of January and February of 2014. I wouldn't mind mixing the cold of that winter with the winter events of this past winter. It would be epic.
It's nice to see, but I've learned over the years not to put a lot of stock in long range forecasts, whether I like what they say or not. So, we'll just continue to watch and see.
I agree with harp. Seeing that general forecast is certainly what we would want to see if we're hoping for winter weather BUT let us not forget just how perfect the atmosphere must be in SELA for us to get frozen precipitation. I'm not going to get my hopes up until a day before any expected type of winter weather hits. And that's only if the WBRZ weather department insists on no accumulations.
