HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Very clearly the mid to lower level vorticity is seen on satellite and 12z sounding, forecasted to track towards the NE GOM, A lot people are already looking at the NE GOM this morning but there is nothing but a surface trough at the moment.

We really don’t need a slow moving low end hurricane to pass through Grand Isle as it moves northward. Steering looks to be possibly weak. Flooding rains always a concern with the weaker slow moving storms. River levels are a real issue. Gonna be a long interesting week. I hope to be bored.

Rainfall totals, from the 12z Euro, through the evening of the 15th.

Here is what bothers me going into August and this potential system or another. We almost always see some type of excessive precipitation event that takes place hundreds of miles from the point of landfall. I run all week long on the Miss River levee and have never seen it elevated like this for so long before. The best scenario with this system is obviously to land in the Big Bend area of Fla and then eject NE into the Atlantic and out to sea. Here is the potential I see: The system develops to some extent and probably the usual coastal flooding issues on the LA coast if not more. Then comes the copious rainfall as already forecast by some models at or slightly displaced from the “center”. But then it slowly moves into the Ohio Valley over days even possibly crossing into Tennessee where the disturbance was first initiated! Now here comes another river surge just as the spillway is trying or just has closed. Seafood industry continues to be pummeled if it has to stay open. We’ve historically seen a few of these systems make complete circles over a week or two including the water and mainland. Will this system directly affect the river with surge this week relative to direction and strength? Can the spillway still be closed in a week or so? What the hell would happen if the river remains high ( a real possibility) going into August? It takes sometimes weeks for the surge to finally make it here to the mouth. If a major approached on the right trajectory would we have time to open the Morganza also? Would it make a difference at this point? Probably not. I’m not a fear monger. I hope the NHC , Homeland Security, and Corps hydrology are on top of this. The river would simply turn into the Gulf again except much further north than Katrina. In the past I would have written this off. Not anymore as we age and experience more of what we thought can’t happen. It’s not that complicated......a river near flood stage and a major cane. It’s the water, always the damn water. Comments?

Indeed the 18z GFS has a big shift to the west, very similar to yesterday's 18z run.