HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

I believe he's referring to the legacy GFS

I am not sure it matters. Euro usually wins 4 out of 5 times

I'm guessing they use the newer version now. Which is crazy because it seems like over the past couple years, the two never agreed with each other lol

That 12z UKMET has been updated on the SFLWM model plot on the front page of the forums (blue line). Talk about rapid intensification though in that short period of time if that was the case. Personally, I don't believe the storm would actually have enough time to catch up to the pressure falling that fast so close to land.

But we need to remember how much worse a strengthening storm at landfall seems to be than a weakening one (more intense rain squalls, stronger wind gusts, etc)

A thought on the water temperatures close to the Louisiana coast: I'm sure they're considerably cooler right now due to all the water coming from the Mississippi River. If that's the case, I'm sure any storm would stop strengthening around 100 miles from the coast. 

There are more educated posters here who could either verify or disprove that. 

Gulf is plenty warm everywhere this time of year. Total depth heat content may be less proximal to the mouth of the river. Bottom line is the atmosphere from an inch above the surface to the outer extreme near space is what ultimately determines structure and intensity.