Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT
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Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 7:22:44 GMT -6 loogaroo and Saltmama~Montegut , Louisiana like this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 7:22:44 GMT -6

Shear looks pretty strong through Saturday. IMO, the best chance for development would be is if the broad low level system could stay in the eastern Gulf until late Saturday into Sunday as the upper level environment becomes more supportive for development. By that time, the upper level low will be well to the west, providing a good anticyclonic outflow over anything at the surface.

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frankp
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Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 7:36:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by frankp on Sept 11, 2019 7:36:14 GMT -6

Sept 11, 2019 7:22:44 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Shear looks pretty strong through Saturday. IMO, the best chance for development would be is if the broad low level system could stay in the eastern Gulf until late Saturday into Sunday as the upper level environment becomes more supportive for development. By that time, the upper level low will be well to the west, providing a good anticyclonic outflow over anything at the surface.

Well as slow as this system is moving I think that certainly is a possibility to consider.

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 7:38:51 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Sept 11, 2019 7:38:51 GMT -6 Cool water vapor shot showing the shear culprit (I think) link

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 7:47:50 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Sept 11, 2019 7:47:50 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

southernbelle Category 3 Posts: 677	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 10:02:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by southernbelle on Sept 11, 2019 10:02:29 GMT -6 Boy The GOM is really flaring on the western side today!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 11:29:30 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 11:29:30 GMT -6 Nothing much on the 12z GFS today. 12z CMC brings a tropical storm in near Apalachicola. 12z ICON goes into the east coast of Florida.
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RW94-BR
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Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 11:30:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by RW94-BR on Sept 11, 2019 11:30:32 GMT -6

Up to 40/60 now

000

ABNT20 KNHC 111716

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a

sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern

Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to

become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical

depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida

as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern

Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely

produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the

Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 11, 2019 11:38:00 GMT -6 by RW94-BR

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,378 Member is Online	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 11:31:55 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 11, 2019 11:31:55 GMT -6 Been very quiet on here today. Guess because it is expected to be weak and looks like it will likely go east of SE Louisiana for now.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 11:48:52 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, trueblue, and 8 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 11:48:52 GMT -6 I'm personally more interested in the cold front the GFS and CMC are showing for next weekend I posted it in the Fall thread.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 12:52:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 12:52:09 GMT -6 Check off Apalachicola for the 12z EURO as well.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman - old GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,449	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 12:57:21 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman - old on Sept 11, 2019 12:57:21 GMT -6 Sept 11, 2019 12:52:09 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Check off Apalachicola for the 12z EURO as well. As an organized system?
	Blowin' harp!

SKYSUMMIT
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Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 16:50:00 GMT -6 via mobile greeneyedgirl and harpman - old like this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 16:50:00 GMT -6

Sept 11, 2019 12:57:21 GMT -6 harpman - old said:

Sept 11, 2019 12:52:09 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Check off Apalachicola for the 12z EURO as well.

As an organized system?

Tropical storm

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 18:01:52 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 18:01:52 GMT -6 High chance for development now.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

hurricaner
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Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 18:08:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Sept 11, 2019 18:08:01 GMT -6

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern

Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred

miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although

limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and

Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive

for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical

depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the

west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,

and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely

produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the

Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to

investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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grisairgasm
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Posts: 5,866

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread Sept 11, 2019 18:16:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 11, 2019 18:16:54 GMT -6

Models or not this thing deserves attention. It’s that time of year in the right spot. I just have very little faith in intensity forecast right now. The overall size of convection is pretty large and convection is widespread. Interesting weekend ahead.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 7:22:44 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 11, 2019 7:36:14 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Sept 11, 2019 7:38:51 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Sept 11, 2019 7:47:50 GMT -6

Post by southernbelle on Sept 11, 2019 10:02:29 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 11:29:30 GMT -6

Post by RW94-BR on Sept 11, 2019 11:30:32 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 11, 2019 11:31:55 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 11:48:52 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 12:52:09 GMT -6

Post by harpman - old on Sept 11, 2019 12:57:21 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 16:50:00 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 11, 2019 18:01:52 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 11, 2019 18:08:01 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 11, 2019 18:16:54 GMT -6

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