Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 20, 2019 13:43:06 GMT -6
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Last Edit: Sept 27, 2019 21:45:53 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by hurricaner on Sept 21, 2019 21:31:12 GMT -6
We could have Karen soon.
Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Post by hurricaner on Sept 22, 2019 2:48:02 GMT -6
Getting closer and closer.
Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Post by bigstevo29 on Sept 22, 2019 4:07:55 GMT -6
Could 99L be the next system which will have to be closely watched as a possible threat to the USA and might threaten FL or could head into the GOM? I saw a few posts tonight on @twitter posted by some wx geeks and storm chasers tweeting about it so I decided to sign into here to see if this wx board was talking about it.
Post by thibodauxwx on Sept 22, 2019 4:27:41 GMT -6
We now have tropical storm Karen . We need to watch The Euro, it brings Karen back across the islands into the gulf and very near the west Florida coast by oct. 2nd. None of the other models do this however.
Last Edit: Sept 22, 2019 4:45:33 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx
Post by hurricaner on Sept 22, 2019 4:44:43 GMT -6
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Remember Zack said there will always be at least model making it to Louisiana. I think it has a much much better chance of a recurve before the United States. Esp this late in September
Post by thibodauxwx on Sept 22, 2019 12:09:27 GMT -6
We would feel left out if one model didn’t come to Louisiana, lol, but some mets on Twitter have mentioned a possibility of a turn to the west later on, we just need to watch it,
Last Edit: Sept 22, 2019 18:20:46 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx
Remember Zack said there will always be at least model making it to Louisiana. I think it has a much much better chance of a recurve before the United States. Esp this late in September
Not sure I would book that just yet, this September has been a little unusual as it will be into the first part of October as well. The tropical threat will loom a little longer this year considering how the pattern is now and in the near future.
Could 99L be the next system which will have to be closely watched as a possible threat to the USA and might threaten FL or could head into the GOM? I saw a few posts tonight on @twitter posted by some wx geeks and storm chasers tweeting about it so I decided to sign into here to see if this wx board was talking about it.
One of our local mets mentioned on the evening news tonight that we may have to watch this system - he mentioned that he believed it was eventually headed to the GOM by mid to late next week. Hopefully not!
Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20.