GFS develops something in the BOC and landfall in SE Louisiana. I would be shocked if that actually happened. With the exception of Juan, I dont remember ever having a storm here past the 1st week of Oct.
But what an exception Juan was! My Dad flew in a helicopter to survey "down the bayou" around Golden Meadow. It was hard to differentiate where land ended and the bayous, streams, etc. began. He probably still has the video. It was awful for the people and businesses.
And this Hurricane season has been one hell of an exception 🤷🏽♀️
Last Edit: Oct 16, 2019 16:04:06 GMT -6 by Crafty1
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Post by hurricaner on Oct 16, 2019 23:24:56 GMT -6
Now at 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and become a little better organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 93.7W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES