Marginal Risk for tomorrow in east Texas and west Louisiana.
...Southeast Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front as well as in pre-frontal confluent zone within a moist (70F dewpoints) but marginally unstable boundary layer. This activity will be embedded within strong vertical shear associated with a progressive synoptic southern-stream trough. Storms developing in pre-frontal confluent zone should be surface based or only slightly elevated, and might become capable of producing a couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado during the day. It still appears a weak thermodynamic environment will remain a limiting factor for a more robust severe event.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. A few storms may be strong.
There will be the potential for more strong thunderstorms Tuesday or Tuesday night with a storm system that is expected to move across the Mississippi River Valley.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
305 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Widely scattered showers will be possible late tonight, primarily northwest of an Alexandria to Port Arthur line...otherwise no hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop and sweep across the region Friday and Friday night, ahead of and in association with a cold front expected to cross the area Friday night into early Saturday. At this time, there is a chance for a few storms to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
After a dry weekend and Monday, rain chances return to the area on Tuesday and linger through Wednesday as another front moves through.
...Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An impressive upper-level trough and an associated 100 to 120 kt mid-level jet are forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a low should move across Kansas as a moist airmass advects northward into the Arklatex. Surface dewpoints may reach 60 F as far north as northern Arkansas with low to mid 60s F in much of the Arklatex. Weak instability is expected to develop across the moist sector by midday on Tuesday. In addition, lift will increase due to the approach of the upper-level system, which should result in scattered thunderstorm development from east Texas and Louisiana northward into Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon.
NAM and GFS forecast soundings generally increase MLCAPE values into the 500 to 1000 J/kg during the mid to late afternoon. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. At this point, uncertainty is substantial where the greatest severe threat will be. Model forecasts have the greatest lift and shear across Arkansas and Missouri but keep the strongest instability across Louisiana. This disconnect may be problematic, keeping the window for severe brief. At this point, will go with a marginal risk area from the western Gulf Coast extending northward into the western part of the mid Mississippi Valley to cover most of the warm sector. Once confidence increases concerning moisture return and instability, a slight risk may need to be added within the marginal risk area.
Post by thermalwind on Nov 26, 2019 8:01:31 GMT -6
This is a case where we'd be talking outbreak if it was March or April and we had those mid spring type lapse rates. Plenty of shear available and pretty good forcing in addition to that. Especially up into far north LA, Arkansas, Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma.
Point is, I'm really glad it's November.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Another cold front will affect the area Saturday and Saturday night. There is the potential for strong storms across much of the area with this system. Keep updated on later forecasts with this system.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary on Sunday behind the cold front.
NWS in Slidell seems to be hinting the threat of a rather significant severe weather event this weekend. With what we just had, we don't need another one so soon.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
No widespread hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
A cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible in advance of the front Sunday.
A period of heavy rain will be possible during the middle part of next week. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the heaviest rain, but currently it appears the heaviest rain will fall Wednesday and/or Thursday. Please continue to monitor the forecast as the details of this threat are refined.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated through at least Saturday.
Next Wednesday and Thursday is still looking awfully wet...like a 48 hour washout.
Does there appear to be anything concerning severe WX? or just a rainy mess?
Pretty much a rainy mess. 2 - 4 inches likely with isolated higher amounts possible.
1135 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Periods of heavy rain are likely during the Wednesday night through early Friday period. Several inches of rainfall are possible which could lead to a chance of flooding. Please continue to monitor the forecast as the details of this threat are refined.