Daily General Weather Discussion (Thunderstorms, Severe Wx)

700 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
area Friday night into Saturday morning. A few storms may be
strong.

There will be the potential for more strong thunderstorms Tuesday
or Tuesday night with a storm system that is expected to move
across the Mississippi River Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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305 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widely scattered showers will be possible late tonight, primarily
northwest of an Alexandria to Port Arthur line...otherwise no
hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop and
sweep across the region Friday and Friday night, ahead of and in
association with a cold front expected to cross the area Friday
night into early Saturday. At this time, there is a chance for a
few storms to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. In
addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

After a dry weekend and Monday, rain chances return to the area on
Tuesday and linger through Wednesday as another front moves
through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely not be required.

For tomorrow:

i.ibb.co/t3Hw5KX/2019-11-25-07-50-00-WSV3.png

...Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An impressive upper-level trough and an associated 100 to 120 kt
mid-level jet are forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across
the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a low should move
across Kansas as a moist airmass advects northward into the
Arklatex. Surface dewpoints may reach 60 F as far north as northern
Arkansas with low to mid 60s F in much of the Arklatex. Weak
instability is expected to develop across the moist sector by midday
on Tuesday. In addition, lift will increase due to the approach of
the upper-level system, which should result in scattered
thunderstorm development from east Texas and Louisiana northward
into Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon.

NAM and GFS forecast soundings generally increase MLCAPE values into
the 500 to 1000 J/kg during the mid to late afternoon. This,
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level
jet, should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. At this
point, uncertainty is substantial where the greatest severe threat
will be. Model forecasts have the greatest lift and shear across
Arkansas and Missouri but keep the strongest instability across
Louisiana. This disconnect may be problematic, keeping the window
for severe brief. At this point, will go with a marginal risk area
from the western Gulf Coast extending northward into the western
part of the mid Mississippi Valley to cover most of the warm sector.
Once confidence increases concerning moisture return and
instability, a slight risk may need to be added within the marginal
risk area.

All quiet down here as the severe threat remains well to the north.

i.ibb.co/FD3nbqb/2019-11-26-20-25-08-WSV3.png

NWS in Slidell seems to be hinting the threat of a rather significant severe weather event this weekend. With what we just had, we don't need another one so soon.

945 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday. A few
strong thunderstorms will be possible in advance of the front
Sunday.

A period of heavy rain will be possible during the middle part of
next week. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the
heaviest rain, but currently it appears the heaviest rain will
fall Wednesday and/or Thursday. Please continue to monitor the
forecast as the details of this threat are refined.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through at least Saturday.

Does there appear to be anything concerning severe WX? or just a rainy mess?

12z EURO, from now to 6:00AM Friday




18z GFS, from now to 6:00AM Friday