This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
The next storm system will deliver periods of heavy rainfall beginning early Thursday through early Friday, where there is a Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. Several inches of rainfall are possible in this time frame leading to the threat for localized flooding.
A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday into Thursday night. At this time, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be in the afternoon hours on Thursday. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the primary threat from any severe thunderstorms that develop.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested for Thursday.
Last Edit: Jan 2, 2020 7:00:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
As of this afternoon it looks like the heaviest rains will be to our west. Will have to see how this plays out and watching to see if we get put under a slight risk for severe weather or not for Thursday.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday into Thursday night. At this time, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be in the afternoon hours on Thursday. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the primary threat from any severe thunderstorms that develop.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the north central Gulf coast region Thursday into Thursday night, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.
...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing will likely cover much of the CONUS early Thursday morning as the overall upper pattern consolidates from the split flow experienced the previous week. Encouraging this consolidation is the short wavelength between an initially southern-stream shortwave trough (expected to extend from west TX through central Mexico at the beginning of the period) and a progressive, initially northern-stream shortwave (expected to extend from the central Rockies into northwest Mexico at the beginning of the period).
The second shortwave trough will remain progressive as it continues to dig southeastward through northern Mexico/west TX on Thursday. This progression will support a quick northeastward ejection of the lead shortwave trough throughout the day. By early Friday, the lead shortwave trough will likely be centered over the mid MS Valley.
This complex interaction between systems will also foster a somewhat complex surface pattern. The low associated with the lead shortwave is expected to track northeastward from its initial position off the upper TX Coast through the Southeast States. Moisture return is anticipated ahead of this low, with upper 60s dewpoints likely pushing through central MS/AL. Low 70s dewpoints are possible along the coastal areas of LA, MS, and AL. This low-level moisture coupled with strong flow aloft will support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (discussed in more detail below).
Surface low attendant to the second shortwave trough will likely begin the period over the TX Panhandle before gradually moving eastward into AR.
...Central Gulf Coast into the central MS/AL... Enhanced mid-level flow will already be in place over the region early Thursday. Even so, further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated as the lead shortwave trough ejects northeastward. By 00Z Friday, a large area of 100 kt+ 500-mb winds is expected from east TX through the TN Valley. As mentioned in the synopsis, moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low attendant to this lead shortwave. Despite this increased low-level moisture, air mass destabilization across the region will be muted by widespread cloud cover and stunted daytime heating. Even so, modest destabilization is possible and modest forcing for ascent (strongest near the surface low) amidst this destabilization will support thunderstorm development.
Strong vertical shear, including 30+ kt from 0-1 km, will support the potential for a few stronger, more organized bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Low potential also exists for isolated tornadoes with any more discrete storms. Highest severe potential appears confined to southeast LA and southern MS where the highest instability is expected.
Looks like NOLA and the most populous northshore are just east of the real rainfall. I don't mind some winter rain and but I'd rather not get a lot since plants and trees don't take up much water during dormant months.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Jan 2, 2020 15:17:24 GMT -6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 241 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in southwestern Mississippi... Northwestern Franklin County in southwestern Mississippi... Northeastern Adams County in southwestern Mississippi...
* Until 330 PM CST.
* At 240 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Natchez, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* This severe thunderstorm will be near... Stanton and Cranfield around 250 PM CST. Stampley and Church Hill around 255 PM CST. Mcnair around 300 PM CST. Fayette around 305 PM CST. Red Lick and Lorman around 310 PM CST. Blue Hill around 315 PM CST.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 545 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for... Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Southern Evangeline Parish in central Louisiana... Northwestern Acadia Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Southeastern Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana... West central St. Landry Parish in central Louisiana... Southeastern Allen Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
* Until 845 PM CST.
* At 544 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Three to five inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Eunice, Jennings, Ville Platte, Mamou, Welsh, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Basile, Iota, Elton, Mermentau, Hayes, Evangeline, Chataignier, Mowata, Prairie Ronde, Savoy, Duralde, Egan and Swords.
Additional rainfall amounts of two to four inches are possible in the warned area.
A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.