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thermalwind
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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 9:57:48 GMT -6 adamandevil likes this

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Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 9:57:48 GMT -6

Feb 5, 2020 9:54:05 GMT -6 harpman said:

I can hear the thunder in the distance.

I thought I heard some a second ago, but I think it's just the streetcar. Either way, all this darkness is sapping my motivation.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,647 Likes - 9,285 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:14:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:14:05 GMT -6 Looks like lightning has definitely increased over the past few minutes.

thermalwind Category 1 Online Posts - 239 Likes - 219	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:21:26 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 10:21:26 GMT -6 Just a few rumbles where I am. Bet harpman has heard a few more. Wouldn't want to be on the Causeway right now though. Lots of bolts on my radar and ahem, you're kind of exposed up there.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,647 Likes - 9,285 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:22:42 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:22:42 GMT -6 Enhanced Risk just went up for parts of Mississippi. Little gusty offshore too: 15 SW Venice [Gmz552 Co, LA] AWOS reports MARINE TSTM WIND of M44 MPH at 9:55 AM CST -- WEST DELTA OIL RIG KDLP MEASURED 44 MPH WIND GUST.

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:28:09 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:28:09 GMT -6

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1027 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Northwestern Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 1130 AM CST.

* At 1026 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lunita, or
near Starks, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Singer, Fields, De Quincy, Ragley, Starks, Dequincy, Lunita and
Oretta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,647 Likes - 9,285 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:31:10 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:31:10 GMT -6 That severe storm in west Louisiana looks to have hail with it on radar returns. Also, a watch will be issued soon!

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:31:42 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:31:42 GMT -6

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana...southwest
through central Mississippi and extreme western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051628Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
intensity and organization initially from southwest through central
Louisiana, and eventually into southwest through central Mississippi
into the afternoon. Supercells and bowing segments posing a risk for
damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. Trends
are being monitored for a tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front extends from northwest AL to a weak
surface low in northern LA where it becomes a cold front and
continuing into southeast TX. Forcing for ascent within the exit
region of an upper jet rounding the base of an upper trough is
beginning to overtake the western part of the warm sector across
southwest through central LA. This is manifested by a recent
increase in thunderstorms along and behind the front southwest LA
through eastern TX. The southerly low-level jet will also respond
and become coupled with the exit upper jet region, and is forecast
to increase to 50+ kt this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB data from Lake
Charles already showed moderate instability with 2500 J/kg MUCAPE in
warm sector. Storms should soon become surface based and organize as
supercells as temperatures rise through the low 70s F. The storms
will subsequently spread northeast into MS this afternoon. The
strengthening low and mid-level jets will support 50+ kt effective
bulk shear and 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity with largest
hodographs expected east of the northeast migrating surface low.

..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

Last Edit: Feb 5, 2020 10:36:07 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:39:03 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:39:03 GMT -6

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1038 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ039-040-064-069-070-072-MSZ077-080-051730-
Washington-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Southern
Tangipahoa-Lower St. Bernard-St. Tammany-Hancock-Pearl River-
1038 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. BERNARD...
ST. TAMMANY...SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA...NORTH CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON PARISHES...HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTIES...

At 1038 AM CST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Madisonville to 8
miles northwest of Lake Catherine to 10 miles northeast of Violet to
7 miles southwest of Shell Beach. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Bogalusa, Picayune, Covington, Diamondhead, Pearl River,
Abita Springs, Madisonville, Sun, Kiln, Pearlington, Lacombe,
Crossroads, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space Center, Bush, Mcneil, Shell
Beach and Slidell Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

thermalwind
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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:39:09 GMT -6

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Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 10:39:09 GMT -6

Feb 5, 2020 10:31:10 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

That severe storm in west Louisiana looks to have hail with it on radar returns. Also, a watch will be issued soon!

Maybe some smaller hail. Looking at some of the dual pol returns, it looks like it could be really heavy rain but the CC is suggestive of some hail in there. At least something melting. It's worth noting the LCH sounding had the wet bulb zero about 3000' below LIX. Hail more likely over there.

Curious to see the reports from the area.

Did a quick look at the NAM and HRRR, and so far the 3k NAM did a better job at depicting what is currently happening.

Last Edit: Feb 5, 2020 10:41:23 GMT -6 by thermalwind

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 10:50:45 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:50:45 GMT -6

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1049 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Southwestern Vernon Parish in west central Louisiana...
Northeastern Newton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 AM CST.

* At 1049 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Singer,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Rosepine, Merryville, Singer, De Ridder, Deridder, Tulla, Junction
and Evans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3059 9326 3055 9360 3102 9361 3102 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 213DEG 40KT 3063 9344

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts - 4,828 Likes - 2,167	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 11:06:02 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Feb 5, 2020 11:06:02 GMT -6 Picked up a quick .67 inches with that line that passed through in Harahan.
	Blowin' harp!

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 11:17:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:17:53 GMT -6

Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana...far southern
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051716Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Low-level wind fields on KLIX/KMOD VAD suggest potential
for low-level storm rotation. Storm mode and upstream precipitation
should limit the overall threat, but isolated strong wind gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. Should trends in storm intensity
increase, a WW will be considered.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has develop over the past 2 hours
across portions of the Mississippi Delta region and progress
northeastward. Storms along the southwestern flank of this activity
have shown some transient and weak low-level rotation. Updrafts have
remained rather weak with only a few cells showing 50 dBZ cores on
the 7 km CAPPI. This is likely due to warm air aloft that was
evident on the 12Z LIX and JAN soundings. Further limiting the
strength of this activity will be the ongoing rainfall downstream of
the stronger cores in LA/MS. Nevertheless, modest to moderate
low-level SRH (around 100-200 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer) on
KLIX/KMOD VAD profiles suggest some storm rotation is possible.
Despite the negative factors, isolated strong wind gusts and a brief
tornado are possible particularly along the southwestern flank where
inflow would be less impacted by precipitation. Trends in storm
intensity will be monitored for possible WW issuance.

..Wendt/Hart.. 02/05/2020

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Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 11:20:16 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:20:16 GMT -6

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1119 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Vernon Parish in west central Louisiana...

* Until noon CST.

* At 1119 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Rosepine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Leesville, Fort Polk, Slagle, Deridder, New Llano, Kurthwood,
Hutton, Simpson and Pickering.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,647 Likes - 9,285 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 11:23:52 GMT -6 thermalwind likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:23:52 GMT -6 Singer [Beauregard Co, LA] PUBLIC reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 10:51 AM CST -- CORNER STORE IN SINGER REPORTED HAIL ABOUT THE SIZE OF A QUARTER.

thermalwind Category 1 Online Posts - 239 Likes - 219	Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed Feb 5, 2020 11:30:31 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 11:30:31 GMT -6 I think you got hail in the cell near Leesville and the one on the edge of the warning box. Differential Reflectivity is showing a hail core there on the edge of the polygon like due east from Fort Polk. ETA: It's warned now.
	Last Edit: Feb 5, 2020 11:34:11 GMT -6 by thermalwind

Slight Risk For Central Gulf Wed

Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 9:57:48 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:14:05 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 10:21:26 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:22:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:28:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:31:10 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:31:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:39:03 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 10:39:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 10:50:45 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Feb 5, 2020 11:06:02 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:17:53 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:20:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 5, 2020 11:23:52 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 11:30:31 GMT -6

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