4 ENE Martinville [Simpson Co, MS] STORM CHASER reports TORNADO at 3:03 PM CST -- TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 540, STORM CHASER ALSO HAD VISUAL CONFIRMATION OF TORNADO.
That one has been warned for a while right? I should know my Mississippi counties better.
Anyway I expect to see the number of tornado warnings start to pick up in Mississippi. Winds have picked up here, signifying the low level jet has begun its expected ramp up. Thumbing through the SPC's mesosector analysis stuff, that's where the lowest LFCs are. So we got more surface based storm potential with the deepening surface low and resulting low level kick. On top of that, flow off the gulf is pretty wide open with convection waning around New Orleans and generally the southern Louisiana coast east of like New Iberia.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Thoughts on south shore for this evening? Is most of the activity expected to stay north?
Just checked the last couple HRRR runs, and so far it looks like once that batch over Tangipahoa moves out, not really seeing anything severe for either side of the lake.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020
Areas affected...southwest through central Mississippi and southeast Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...
Valid 052141Z - 052245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes has undergone a significant increase during the past hour from southwest through central MS, and this threat is expected to persist into the evening including the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Storms have undergone a significant increase in organization during the past hour. A couple of storms with a history of producing tornadoes persist from southwest through central MS. Activity is increasing east and southeast of a surface low that will deepen and track northeast along a stationary front this evening. Large low-level hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity exists along a strengthening low-level jet and within a moderately unstable environment. Additional storms developing in warm sector will likely organize as supercells and bowing segments with an attendant threat for tornadoes and damaging wind.
Thoughts on south shore for this evening? Is most of the activity expected to stay north?
Just checked the last couple HRRR runs, and so far it looks like once that batch over Tangipahoa moves out, not really seeing anything severe for either side of the lake.
I think the NAM has done better so far tbh, but also they aren't so different for SELa this evening. The NAM blows up more convection than the HRRR, but it's clearly not going to be surface based looking at the soundings produced. The good news is, the downdraft potential is a lot lower for the overnight storms and rotation is going to be harder to come by looking at the wind field. So I think we'll get a line come through overnight, probably some lightning to go with it. Agreed though, not seeing a lot of severe potential left.
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020
Areas affected...Much of Mississippi into southwest Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...
Valid 052306Z - 060030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some capable of a brief tornado or damaging wind gusts, remain possible this evening.
DISCUSSION...Numerous storms persist both along and ahead of a cold front, affecting much of MS, AL, and southern Middle TN. Shear remains strong with the most favorable hodographs from parts of eastern MS and into northern AL.
Lift via warm advection will remain strongest over northern areas, but lift along the cold front and a moist and marginally unstable air mass will conditionally favor severe storms through evening over much of MS and into parts of southern AL. As such, a replacement watch will likely be required.
Post by gullywasher on Feb 5, 2020 18:04:21 GMT -6
So, that's it ? I'm starting to think Morgas and his humidity rag back in the early 60's was more accurate then the modern NOLA forecasters with all their new fangled computer crap. This is starting to get VERY old
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
Post by gullywasher on Feb 5, 2020 18:05:51 GMT -6
Enhanced risk ? Enhance THIS...………….
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Multiple hail reports, wind reports and tornado reports in the Enhanced Risk area. I'd say the Enhanced Risk verified and the SPC nailed the geographical location.
Post by thermalwind on Feb 5, 2020 18:49:11 GMT -6
Had wind damage in the CBD and hail in New Orleans today. At least one tornado in the slight region.
The enhanced region up in Mississippi has seen multiple tornadoes and hail reports, pretty much in line with the risk level. The SPC absolutely nailed it today.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
The rain is moving out! By 10am, it should be out of SELA and by noon, I'd say east of Mobile. Up here in Ponchatoula, looking northwest I can see blue skies.
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Roundup from yesterday...sleet and snow in south Texas, wind and large hail in Louisiana, tornadoes in Mississippi and flooding in Florida. We had it all!
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