Mardi Gras 2020

My early thoughts on Mardi Gras:

Big picture suggests warmer than normal going into supers weekend, but Euro has a little upper low cut off out in west Texas and that would probably tend us more toward normal or slightly below with cloud cover and potential rain. It seems to me this pattern will want to put the rain north of us though, much like this week. I don't have much confidence this far away, but as it stands I think we get a not super hot or cold week of parades with a lot of cloud cover and spotty showers. We'll see how things evolve as all of our models get into closer range. 

Models aren't exactly in agreement or consistent. So expect some flux in the forecast. 

It's really going to depend on timing on our middle of the country storm to start the week, and just how strong it is. It should bring a cold front in like Wednesday. How strong of a front still in doubt and how much it would want to keep clouds and showers around after it. Euro would keep it dry and be on the chilly side, GFS would also be on the cool side but would maybe keep some showers around into the night. Just going to have to wait and see on that. 

The good news is there's nothing I'm seeing to suggest severe weather for pretty much the entire parade week, save Wednesday. Also not seeing a torch signal either. Way too early to be too hopeful, but this could shape up to be a fine weather Mardi Gras. 

I am going to be looking at Orlando weather for next weekend into next week because I will be in Disney. Only parade I can make this year because of the trip is this Sunday the Ambrosia parade in Thibodaux. Have family riding. But so far weather doesn’t look that good. 60% chance of rain.

Looking at Thursday on for next week, we're watching a little feature out west.



This little shortwave is what is going to make our weather for the weekend. The Euro has been consistent with this bit of energy hanging back off the main trough that comes in with the system across the heart of the country early to mid week that gets us a midweek cold front. The last three to four runs, it pulls this s/w into the southeast and supports a little reenforcing cold front behind it. Later runs have amplified it a little bit, increasing the rain potential mostly on that Friday. Going to watch that trend.

Eventually it hangs around long enough to spark a low off NC and a baby nor'easter, and keeps us cool likely into Tuesday. 



Not just the operational Euro seeing it either, with the EPS pinging on the idea. 

The GFS and all the other models are also onto this general idea, but it is tending to have it stronger and farther west. This leaves it hanging around until merging in with another trough it digs into the northern Rockies come Friday and Saturday. 



This placement is probably a big player in why they are doing such different things. This opens the door for some colder air to slip out of western canada and they end up merging bringing a storm across the northern plains and great lakes. The Euro keeping it weaker and to the east more means the NW ridging doesn't break down and it just trails the first trough on a southern path. 

The difference? 

The GFS would trend us warmer and the Euro colder. Rain wise, better to be on the cold side generally. So hoping the Euro is the more correct solution here because it would mean some fantastic weather for next weekend. 

How bad does it look for Sunday? Thibodaux area? Really wanted to take my 5 year old to the Parade. Weather channel shows 80% of rain and NWS shows 60%. Unfortunately no invites to anyone’s home to catch parade to dodge rain. Only parade we can make this year because leaving for Disney next weekend