This weekend...Friday and Saturday are looking good. Sunday too for the most part, but there may be a few isolated showers Sunday. Not enough to cancel plans though.
The early forecast for Super Weekend...same thing, Friday and Saturday looking good. Bacchus Sunday may have a few showers around. Endymion Saturday, highs in the mid 60s. Bacchus Sunday highs in the mid 50s with cloudy skies and passing showers.
SO FAR, Mardi Gras Day is looking great with clear skies and highs around 70. Of course we all know this will change LOL
Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22
Post by thermalwind on Feb 11, 2020 15:47:28 GMT -6
My early thoughts on Mardi Gras:
Big picture suggests warmer than normal going into supers weekend, but Euro has a little upper low cut off out in west Texas and that would probably tend us more toward normal or slightly below with cloud cover and potential rain. It seems to me this pattern will want to put the rain north of us though, much like this week. I don't have much confidence this far away, but as it stands I think we get a not super hot or cold week of parades with a lot of cloud cover and spotty showers. We'll see how things evolve as all of our models get into closer range.
Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Feb 11, 2020 23:44:11 GMT -6
Thanks, guys! I know that's still too far out, but I ride Muses on Thursday night, which we consider to be a part of Super Weekend, as well! Any thoughts on Thursday would be greatly appreciated! I was, once again, too lazy to make shoes this year, but we have some amazing throws! Scott, will y'all be at the same place this year?
Thanks, guys! I know that's still too far out, but I ride Muses on Thursday night, which we consider to be a part of Super Weekend, as well! Any thoughts on Thursday would be greatly appreciated! I was, once again, too lazy to make shoes this year, but we have some amazing throws! Scott, will y'all be at the same place this year?
06z GFS, is not your friend. It shows cold and wet!
Thanks, guys! I know that's still too far out, but I ride Muses on Thursday night, which we consider to be a part of Super Weekend, as well! Any thoughts on Thursday would be greatly appreciated! I was, once again, too lazy to make shoes this year, but we have some amazing throws! Scott, will y'all be at the same place this year?
I'll look at it closer in a little bit. I live on the parade route now, so I'll be out there to see y'all come by.
Thanks, guys! I know that's still too far out, but I ride Muses on Thursday night, which we consider to be a part of Super Weekend, as well! Any thoughts on Thursday would be greatly appreciated! I was, once again, too lazy to make shoes this year, but we have some amazing throws! Scott, will y'all be at the same place this year?
Models aren't exactly in agreement or consistent. So expect some flux in the forecast.
It's really going to depend on timing on our middle of the country storm to start the week, and just how strong it is. It should bring a cold front in like Wednesday. How strong of a front still in doubt and how much it would want to keep clouds and showers around after it. Euro would keep it dry and be on the chilly side, GFS would also be on the cool side but would maybe keep some showers around into the night. Just going to have to wait and see on that.
The good news is there's nothing I'm seeing to suggest severe weather for pretty much the entire parade week, save Wednesday. Also not seeing a torch signal either. Way too early to be too hopeful, but this could shape up to be a fine weather Mardi Gras.
Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Feb 12, 2020 22:06:21 GMT -6
Thanks to both of you! I'm perfectly fine with cold. In fact you can really work up a sweat on a float if you're doing it right, lol! However, cold and wet is a big NOPE! Fingers crossed, and we shall see!
I am going to be looking at Orlando weather for next weekend into next week because I will be in Disney. Only parade I can make this year because of the trip is this Sunday the Ambrosia parade in Thibodaux. Have family riding. But so far weather doesn’t look that good. 60% chance of rain.
Thanks to both of you! I'm perfectly fine with cold. In fact you can really work up a sweat on a float if you're doing it right, lol! However, cold and wet is a big NOPE! Fingers crossed, and we shall see!
Glad you asked about Thursday. I ride in Babylon to kick off the evening. And I agree completely with you - no problem if it's cold. In fact I prefer it cold rather than warm. But wet. Especially cold and wet? Nope. Though I'd rather ride in cold and wet than have a washout. In the past when we've had rain on Thursday, we've ridden on Sunday morning ahead of all of the other parades. But with the uptown parade calendar so compacted and so many other krewes on that Sunday, I don't think they allow that now.
It rained during the day last year and we delayed about an hour but rode to nice weather and great crowds.
Post by thermalwind on Feb 13, 2020 14:21:07 GMT -6
Looking at Thursday on for next week, we're watching a little feature out west.
This little shortwave is what is going to make our weather for the weekend. The Euro has been consistent with this bit of energy hanging back off the main trough that comes in with the system across the heart of the country early to mid week that gets us a midweek cold front. The last three to four runs, it pulls this s/w into the southeast and supports a little reenforcing cold front behind it. Later runs have amplified it a little bit, increasing the rain potential mostly on that Friday. Going to watch that trend.
Eventually it hangs around long enough to spark a low off NC and a baby nor'easter, and keeps us cool likely into Tuesday.
Not just the operational Euro seeing it either, with the EPS pinging on the idea.
The GFS and all the other models are also onto this general idea, but it is tending to have it stronger and farther west. This leaves it hanging around until merging in with another trough it digs into the northern Rockies come Friday and Saturday.
This placement is probably a big player in why they are doing such different things. This opens the door for some colder air to slip out of western canada and they end up merging bringing a storm across the northern plains and great lakes. The Euro keeping it weaker and to the east more means the NW ridging doesn't break down and it just trails the first trough on a southern path.
The difference?
The GFS would trend us warmer and the Euro colder. Rain wise, better to be on the cold side generally. So hoping the Euro is the more correct solution here because it would mean some fantastic weather for next weekend.
Thanks to both of you! I'm perfectly fine with cold. In fact you can really work up a sweat on a float if you're doing it right, lol! However, cold and wet is a big NOPE! Fingers crossed, and we shall see!
Glad you asked about Thursday. I ride in Babylon to kick off the evening. And I agree completely with you - no problem if it's cold. In fact I prefer it cold rather than warm. But wet. Especially cold and wet? Nope. Though I'd rather ride in cold and wet than have a washout. In the past when we've had rain on Thursday, we've ridden on Sunday morning ahead of all of the other parades. But with the uptown parade calendar so compacted and so many other krewes on that Sunday, I don't think they allow that now.
It rained during the day last year and we delayed about an hour but rode to nice weather and great crowds.
I remember that year very well! Our friend was Sargon that year. Hated that y'all were moved to Sunday, but so glad that you got to roll, eventually. Here's hoping for no washouts this year!
How bad does it look for Sunday? Thibodaux area? Really wanted to take my 5 year old to the Parade. Weather channel shows 80% of rain and NWS shows 60%. Unfortunately no invites to anyone’s home to catch parade to dodge rain. Only parade we can make this year because leaving for Disney next weekend
Glad you asked about Thursday. I ride in Babylon to kick off the evening. And I agree completely with you - no problem if it's cold. In fact I prefer it cold rather than warm. But wet. Especially cold and wet? Nope. Though I'd rather ride in cold and wet than have a washout. In the past when we've had rain on Thursday, we've ridden on Sunday morning ahead of all of the other parades. But with the uptown parade calendar so compacted and so many other krewes on that Sunday, I don't think they allow that now.
It rained during the day last year and we delayed about an hour but rode to nice weather and great crowds.
I remember that year very well! Our friend was Sargon that year. Hated that y'all were moved to Sunday, but so glad that you got to roll, eventually. Here's hoping for no washouts this year!
My son was a page to Sargon that year, riding on his float. He was so nice to the boys who served as pages. It was a good year for Babylon, despite getting bumped to Sunday.
