Post by thermalwind on Feb 14, 2020 9:07:34 GMT -6
Subtle shifts in our overnight runs.
Euro a little weaker and a little more stretched out on our shortwave. Brings it father north. Same end result with cool air hanging around through the weekend and a storm off the Carolinas. I can see the UKMet out to 00z Thursday and it looks very similar with the 500 mb heights. ICON is generally the same as those two as well, just set up a little more north. GFS is all alone with it cutting off and hanging off the California coast. I suspect it's the GFS being a little too progressive with the midweek system leaving it behind.
More agreement showing up at least, but not as perfect as yesterday's Euro was wanting to show. Still, this wouldn't be too hot and the rain would stay away for Saturday into Tuesday. It's Thursday and Friday parades that have the rain potential imo. It will be cool enough where I'm not thinking thunderstorms or even heavy rain at least.
ETA: 12z GFS has our little shortwave at the same time near the others. The progression is different though vs the Euro. It's hard to even notice it going into Saturday but the GFS pulls it over the Rockies and across the midwest as it fades out. The 00z Euro might be giving it a little kick of energy off the lee side of the Rockies and shifting it a little south. This is all at the 500 mb level I'm looking at. The vorticities seem to show the differences pretty well. The Euro has the little shortwave still connected with the bigger trough hanging out near the great lakes, then it drops off the Rockies and tightens up. Ends up stronger and farther south, introducing more of a rain threat on Thursday and Friday but also cooler conditions over the weekend. The GFS has it more disconnected and doesn't have much of anything to tighten up coming off the Rockies.
Euro a little weaker and a little more stretched out on our shortwave. Brings it father north. Same end result with cool air hanging around through the weekend and a storm off the Carolinas. I can see the UKMet out to 00z Thursday and it looks very similar with the 500 mb heights. ICON is generally the same as those two as well, just set up a little more north. GFS is all alone with it cutting off and hanging off the California coast. I suspect it's the GFS being a little too progressive with the midweek system leaving it behind.
More agreement showing up at least, but not as perfect as yesterday's Euro was wanting to show. Still, this wouldn't be too hot and the rain would stay away for Saturday into Tuesday. It's Thursday and Friday parades that have the rain potential imo. It will be cool enough where I'm not thinking thunderstorms or even heavy rain at least.
ETA: 12z GFS has our little shortwave at the same time near the others. The progression is different though vs the Euro. It's hard to even notice it going into Saturday but the GFS pulls it over the Rockies and across the midwest as it fades out. The 00z Euro might be giving it a little kick of energy off the lee side of the Rockies and shifting it a little south. This is all at the 500 mb level I'm looking at. The vorticities seem to show the differences pretty well. The Euro has the little shortwave still connected with the bigger trough hanging out near the great lakes, then it drops off the Rockies and tightens up. Ends up stronger and farther south, introducing more of a rain threat on Thursday and Friday but also cooler conditions over the weekend. The GFS has it more disconnected and doesn't have much of anything to tighten up coming off the Rockies.
