Post by thermalwind - Touro on Feb 14, 2020 9:07:34 GMT -6
Subtle shifts in our overnight runs.
Euro a little weaker and a little more stretched out on our shortwave. Brings it father north. Same end result with cool air hanging around through the weekend and a storm off the Carolinas. I can see the UKMet out to 00z Thursday and it looks very similar with the 500 mb heights. ICON is generally the same as those two as well, just set up a little more north. GFS is all alone with it cutting off and hanging off the California coast. I suspect it's the GFS being a little too progressive with the midweek system leaving it behind.
More agreement showing up at least, but not as perfect as yesterday's Euro was wanting to show. Still, this wouldn't be too hot and the rain would stay away for Saturday into Tuesday. It's Thursday and Friday parades that have the rain potential imo. It will be cool enough where I'm not thinking thunderstorms or even heavy rain at least.
ETA: 12z GFS has our little shortwave at the same time near the others. The progression is different though vs the Euro. It's hard to even notice it going into Saturday but the GFS pulls it over the Rockies and across the midwest as it fades out. The 00z Euro might be giving it a little kick of energy off the lee side of the Rockies and shifting it a little south. This is all at the 500 mb level I'm looking at. The vorticities seem to show the differences pretty well. The Euro has the little shortwave still connected with the bigger trough hanging out near the great lakes, then it drops off the Rockies and tightens up. Ends up stronger and farther south, introducing more of a rain threat on Thursday and Friday but also cooler conditions over the weekend. The GFS has it more disconnected and doesn't have much of anything to tighten up coming off the Rockies.
Post by grisairgasm on Feb 14, 2020 12:21:10 GMT -6
Glad it’s a long way out but looks to have severe weather potential around the 25th on the 12z GFS. Hopefully delayed or tempered as subsequent models run.
Glad it’s a long way out but looks to have severe weather potential around the 25th on the 12z GFS. Hopefully delayed or tempered as subsequent models run.
I saw it, but the differences in what the GFS is showing out west next weekend vs the rest of them give me some pause. I'm not worrying about that until we get next weekend resolved.
I remember that year very well! Our friend was Sargon that year. Hated that y'all were moved to Sunday, but so glad that you got to roll, eventually. Here's hoping for no washouts this year!
My son was a page to Sargon that year, riding on his float. He was so nice to the boys who served as pages. It was a good year for Babylon, despite getting bumped to Sunday.
Yes, he's a great guy 😊
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Thursday still looks to be the wettest day, at least during the day but man it'll be raw! It'll actually feel like winter. Friday and Saturday look awesome! Even Sunday is looking better. MGD, looks nice as well!
Last Edit: Feb 18, 2020 6:47:33 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Thursday still looks to be the wettest day, at least during the day but man it'll be raw! It'll actually feel like winter. Friday and Saturday look awesome! Even Sunday is looking better. MGD, looks nice as well!
Ugh, a cold, wet ride. That can be really miserable.
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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Feb 19, 2020 9:24:31 GMT -6
Damp and a little warm currently, feels like Mardi Gras is about upon us. Huge trucks coming by, throwing away stuff people left on the neutral ground to hold spots (my old tarp and broken chair included). Guess they were serious on the 4 hour thing.
I do think any lingering showers will be out by parade time tonight. Got my rain jacket ready just in case.
Post by thermalwind - Touro on Feb 19, 2020 19:55:40 GMT -6
Those of you riding, I'm going to be personality disappointed if you don't load down the neutral ground side by the bead tree across from the St. Charles Discount with beads and shoes and stuff.
Just remember, some anonymous poster on a weather forum will be disappointed if you don't.
Leaving for Disney Saturday night. 1st half of the week looks warm with highs in the 80’s but rest of the week in Orlando looks cool with highs only in the 60’s.
60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La
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Looks like the rains should move out in time for tonight's triple header in NOLA!
I'm SO looking forward to Saturday right now! If you'll be around St Charles between Common and Canal, give me a shout! We should be out there around 7am
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Looks like the rains should move out in time for tonight's triple header in NOLA!
I'm SO looking forward to Saturday right now! If you'll be around St Charles between Common and Canal, give me a shout! We should be out there around 7am
Post by thibodauxwx on Feb 20, 2020 16:41:13 GMT -6
All parades scheduled to roll tonight in New Orleans have been canceled, and will be re-scheduled.
Wind advisory has been issued until 6AM Friday. Winds 20-35mph. Muses will run at 4:45PM Friday, Babylon will follow. Chaos will roll Sunday behind Thoth.
Last Edit: Feb 20, 2020 16:56:43 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx