Still think the better chances of rain and severe weather will be north of the Gulf Coast, well north into interior LA, MS, and AL. The models are generally tending drier near the coast. I suspect there will be dense severe reports in the areas already under the moderate risk with lesser density east or west into the enhanced risk areas, but very little in the southern extent of the enhanced risk areas. Seems convection may really be struggling per NAM, but watch out Monroe, Jackson, Meridian, Tupelo, Birmingham!
I'd caution writing off the South side of the enhanced just on the NAM. It tends to keep things cooler and cloudier than necessarily happens. It is showing saturated low levels and you get weak low level lapse rates and elevated storms at best.
Certainly could be the case but it's too early to put a lot of stock in this solution just yet. It's still early for the CAMs.
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Apr 10, 2020 17:15:41 GMT -6
I agree Bayou. Seen this scenario played out many times with all the hype, just like today on all the local news channels, only to have much of nothing. Not even a thunderstorm. Bet this ends up moving even further north well away from us with the bullseye into north ms, al, and tenn.
Wait until Sunday around noon. There's still a lot of time for this to evolve and end up being a flop. Sunday around noon will be telling. If storms are firing off by then, we'll be in for a rocky afternoon.
True. I've been reading around in other places and the conversation is booming. I'd love to see some chat here, since this my number one spot. Would just enjoy reading everyone's opinions and observations.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Wait until Sunday around noon. There's still a lot of time for this to evolve and end up being a flop. Sunday around noon will be telling. If storms are firing off by then, we'll be in for a rocky afternoon.
True. I've been reading around in other places and the conversation is booming. I'd love to see some chat here, since this my number one spot. Would just enjoy reading everyone's opinions and observations.
I’ll say this: Yesterday was a hot and very juicy day (I noticed the dew point on my Davis Vantage Pro 2 was 75 at 3:00 pm. I even told my wife “boy the atmosphere sure is primed for a storm or two right now” but at that point the storms in east Texas weren’t looking to hold up and make it here. I don’t recall seeing any expert say that we had a potential severe storm possibility for last night. Well low and behold my area north of St. Amant got absolutely pounded. 50 mph winds, tons of lightning, and power outages that lasted until this morning. Trees and large limbs are down all over the place here.
Nobody expected that. I know it was very isolated but still.
In the last few years, almost all hyped potential severe outbreaks turned out to be busts for the BR area. For now, I’m paying attention but I’m definitely not getting caught up in the hype until I see it start to take place. My personal, unprofessional, opinion is that Monroe/Jackson/Hattiesburg/Tuscaloosa/Birmingham areas will get rocked from this.
Post by lsukev4 in Gretna on Apr 10, 2020 18:03:50 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Haven’t been on the site in quite awhile. New faces around. Hope you all are well. I’m in Gretna for future reference.
I am personally awaiting a razor thin line moving east at 50mph that somehow breaks up/weakens right before MBY then restrengthens to my east. 🤷🏻♂️ No scientific data in that forecast. All historical. And I will happily spend countless hours looking at models and hanging around this forum until said line passes.
True. I've been reading around in other places and the conversation is booming. I'd love to see some chat here, since this my number one spot. Would just enjoy reading everyone's opinions and observations.
I’ll say this: Yesterday was a hot and very juicy day (I noticed the dew point on my Davis Vantage Pro 2 was 75 at 3:00 pm. I even told my wife “boy the atmosphere sure is primed for a storm or two right now” but at that point the storms in east Texas weren’t looking to hold up and make it here. I don’t recall seeing any expert say that we had a potential severe storm possibility for last night. Well low and behold my area north of St. Amant got absolutely pounded. 50 mph winds, tons of lightning, and power outages that lasted until this morning. Trees and large limbs are down all over the place here.
Nobody expected that. I know it was very isolated but still.
In the last few years, almost all hyped potential severe outbreaks turned out to be busts for the BR area. For now, I’m paying attention but I’m definitely not getting caught up in the hype until I see it start to take place. My personal, unprofessional, opinion is that Monroe/Jackson/Hattiesburg/Tuscaloosa/Birmingham areas will get rocked from this.
Just my opinion as of now.
This. This is how I'm feeling, too. As for last night's storms, it was odd. We had a random Severe Thunderstorm Warning, and it was like you said, not expected. We were quite happy with the rain, even though we only picked up .25.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Post by thermalwind on Apr 10, 2020 19:39:47 GMT -6
You get a storm system rolling with enough warm moist air in front of it, the cold outflow alone is enough to lift that up and keep the storms going long after what you expect.
I know I wasn't expecting that to keep going that far last night.
This morning's discussion from NWS New Orleans is saying supercells around lunchtime Sunday and a Squall line in the evening?
I’ve literally never seen that type of potential play out. It always ends up being either a few super cells and no squall line or no cells and just a squall line with lots of rain and some wind.
I’m sorry, I’m not trying to bring negativity to the discussion. It’s just that I’m tired of getting caught up in the hype only to have nothing happen. I know every “event” is real for SOMEBODY and I hope nobody is killed. I just refuse to let myself get caught up in the hype again. I’m going to enjoy Easter Sunday quarantined with the family and keep an eye and ear out for the weather just in case.
It's good that we have a heads up no matter what happens. If it's a shoo shoo, yay. If the weather gets really bad, stay safe. There's nothing we can do about the weather anyway. Everyone have a great Easter!
This morning's discussion from NWS New Orleans is saying supercells around lunchtime Sunday and a Squall line in the evening?
Rouge supercells is what they said. The discussion notes the potential but it's not as if they're expecting a parade of them. Might get one form up and I'd personally expected it to be north of I12 and really blossom into SW Mississippi. Just they way it normally works.
For me, I'm watching for the low level lapse rates. It's going to be plenty steep above 700 but sfc to 700 stands a chance to be more moist adiabatic. That would limit a supercell down here.
With all the ingredients in place, right now, I think the line of storms will be the main show for south Louisiana but everyone should be aware there could potentially be that one supercell that does get rolling early and drops a big tornado.
Low odds of seeing that in your neighborhood, but huge risk of impact if you do.
I'll be going through the 12z modeling this afternoon for us and the moderate zone. And update the images in the OP.
I'd like to express some amateur local severe weather opinions based on close to forty years of living in Southern Louisiana, having intensely watched the weather for nearly thirty years of that. I'm not trying to downplay this event for anyone, and I urge everyone to heed any and all warnings, watches, or other advisories issued by the National Weather Service affecting their persons or property.
I'm going to be kinda loose with my use of terms and ideas, and keep in mind I'm saying to treat all of this as opinion, since I'm not trying to make scientific claims.
Anyway. High end potential severe weather systems seem far more prone to "underperforming" near the Gulf coast relative to places just a little further inland. We see this over and over again, and statistics seem to show this as well.
It's not just a matter of "the best ingredients being north." I very much acknowledge the importance of atmospheric dynamics in shaping these events generally, but also admitting I'm not a meterologist, nevertheless I find it to probably be no coincidence that no matter how far south these systems come in, when they pass through our region, they tend to behave predictably the same; there seems to be something about proximity to the Gulf of Mexico that is generally a hindrance to high end severe weather, or causes far less widespread manifestations of it when it does happen, relative to inland or just slightly more climatologically continental locations, and it's not just based on storm tracks.
Moreover, when there are big outbreaks with many long tracked, violent tornadoes, the weather near the coast, let's say from around 31 degrees south, is actually generally just windy and warm and not too bad. Sometimes non-thunderstorm winds cause minor damage and power outages. It seems like the winder and warmer it is, as in when it would "seem" like the atmosphere is primed the most for convection, at the most feared hour, nothing happens, not even rain for most people, certainly not supercells, all the while temps might soar into the upper 80s on 35 to 45 mph winds, which usually die down to less than than by the time most places see much significant precipitation, if they do at all.
To be sure, of course, where convection does form tomorrow afternoon and sustain updrafts and gain organization, it could easily go severe and almost certainly will, and by no means should anyone anywhere let down their guard, but past experience leads me to doubt how widespread or intense this event will be in my area (River Parishes) when areas just north are likely far far far more primed, which is of course already being clearly conveyed by the SPC. I'm merely expressing my own personal feeling that the southern end of the enhanced risk area is still probably going to prove to be too generous, as the extent nearest the coast has been diminished or trimmed slightly the last couple of days in the convective outlooks. I'm not surprised! COULD something fire off tomorrow? Of course, but the models simply aren't showing a great deal of convection for the areas I'm describing, and while we shouldn't put too much stock in the exact placement or existence of some individual storm, or lack thereof on the NAM or HRRR twelve or eighteen hours or more out, I think the models' representation seems reasonable right now, and I can't be sure, but I don't remember the models showing extremely isolated or meager convection immediately before any of the more significant potential events like 2012, 2016, or 2017 or before higher end linear systems like the one in April 2015.
I'm not smart enough to know exactly what to look for, but I suspect there's likely a very key ingredient(s) either missing or present or both that tends to mute these events. This is good news, I'm not complaining, but I think it's OK to acknowledge this and be aware of it, and also to still keep in mind these are generalities, not absolutes, and there's no magic shield that protects anyone. Stay safe and I hope and pray everyone has a Happy Easter.