Easter Severe Weather! "Dixie Alley" under Moderate Risk

I'd like to express some amateur local severe weather opinions based on close to forty years of living in Southern Louisiana, having intensely watched the weather for nearly thirty years of that.
I'm not trying to downplay this event for anyone, and I urge everyone to heed any and all warnings, watches, or other advisories issued by the National Weather Service affecting their persons or property.

I'm going to be kinda loose with my use of terms and ideas, and keep in mind I'm saying to treat all of this as opinion, since I'm not trying to make scientific claims.

Anyway. High end potential severe weather systems seem far more prone to "underperforming" near the Gulf coast relative to places just a little further inland. We see this over and over again, and statistics seem to show this as well.

It's not just a matter of "the best ingredients being north." I very much acknowledge the importance of atmospheric dynamics in shaping these events generally, but also admitting I'm not a meterologist, nevertheless I find it to probably be no coincidence that no matter how far south these systems come in, when they pass through our region, they tend to behave predictably the same; there seems to be something about proximity to the Gulf of Mexico that is generally a hindrance to high end severe weather, or causes far less widespread manifestations of it when it does happen, relative to inland or just slightly more climatologically continental locations, and it's not just based on storm tracks.

Moreover, when there are big outbreaks with many long tracked, violent tornadoes, the weather near the coast, let's say from around 31 degrees south, is actually generally just windy and warm and not too bad. Sometimes non-thunderstorm winds cause minor damage and power outages. It seems like the winder and warmer it is, as in when it would "seem" like the atmosphere is primed the most for convection, at the most feared hour, nothing happens, not even rain for most people, certainly not supercells, all the while temps might soar into the upper 80s on 35 to 45 mph winds, which usually die down to less than than by the time most places see much significant precipitation, if they do at all.

To be sure, of course, where convection does form tomorrow afternoon and sustain updrafts and gain organization, it could easily go severe and almost certainly will, and by no means should anyone anywhere let down their guard, but past experience leads me to doubt how widespread or intense this event will be in my area (River Parishes) when areas just north are likely far far far more primed, which is of course already being clearly conveyed by the SPC. I'm merely expressing my own personal feeling that the southern end of the enhanced risk area is still probably going to prove to be too generous, as the extent nearest the coast has been diminished or trimmed slightly the last couple of days in the convective outlooks. I'm not surprised! COULD something fire off tomorrow? Of course, but the models simply aren't showing a great deal of convection for the areas I'm describing, and while we shouldn't put too much stock in the exact placement or existence of some individual storm, or lack thereof on the NAM or HRRR twelve or eighteen hours or more out, I think the models' representation seems reasonable right now, and I can't be sure, but I don't remember the models showing extremely isolated or meager convection immediately before any of the more significant potential events like 2012, 2016, or 2017 or before higher end linear systems like the one in April 2015.

I'm not smart enough to know exactly what to look for, but I suspect there's likely a very key ingredient(s) either missing or present or both that tends to mute these events. This is good news, I'm not complaining, but I think it's OK to acknowledge this and be aware of it, and also to still keep in mind these are generalities, not absolutes, and there's no magic shield that protects anyone. Stay safe and I hope and pray everyone has a Happy Easter.