Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Apr 28, 2020 9:11:39 GMT -6
I haven't seen any mention of this forecast yet and I'm perplexed. Are we that severe weather fatigued at this point? It looks like a significant squall line is forecast to develop and blow through SELA tomorrow morning with a hint of some bowing structure to it. To those who know a lot more than I do -- are we looking at the potential for big wind gusts with this? It looks like it starts to bow out a bit just as it gets to the BR area.
Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Apr 28, 2020 9:49:25 GMT -6
I have checked here multiple times a day waiting for someone to mention something. Thank you for being that person.
The only thing I can think of is, maybe because this is more of a wind threat vs tornado, people are not talking about it? Or, Maybe because SELA is in a Marginal Risk? I don't know, but I'm glad it has finally been brought up!
I've been wondering the same thing, been looking at the models and seeing this aggressive looking squall for SELA, and wondering why it's been so quiet here about it. There was a post on twitter a couple days ago from either Zach or Scott, can't remember which one, showing that there was guidance issued for this system from the SPC, but that has been the only "official" looking info I have seen about it.
Last Edit: Apr 28, 2020 9:56:30 GMT -6 by Darminion
Post by thermalwind on Apr 28, 2020 10:07:23 GMT -6
I was just about to come post a little about it. Busy time of the year for me, haven't given it much focus yet.
First, just take a gander at this NAM sounding for eastern Oklahoma tonight.
CAPE over 4000, downdraft CAPE over 1200. Holy hell that'll bring some wind with it. Those lapse rates too...going from 74 at the surface to getting to freezing at 600 mb. This line is going to put on a show tonight. Hail + huge wind risk right there as the line actually organizes into a line.
For us down here though, it's not nearly as nasty. We're going to be removed some from both the surface low and the same levels of cold air aloft. It also will be coming through early morning. Not a lot of shear on either NAM or HRRR but enough convective potential to keep an eye on. Bowing sections will obviously have severe wind potential and the lapse rates aren't bad aloft, so it's not nothing. Probably worth a slight risk down into this area. It's hard to know just how a line like this will progress, we've seen a few times recently some convective complexes produce a lot farther than expected.
Keep an eye on the radar trend before bed and expect some rumbles in the morning.
Post by grisairgasm on Apr 28, 2020 10:15:22 GMT -6
My guess is the line will weaken as it approaches New Orleans area. Just seems to be the norm lately. With that being said, I do believe a wind event is still possible even as an outflow boundary may be collapsing. It is the time of year for some unexpected mischief to pop up. Another problem is the drought in SE LA. This will be moving so fast that I think significant rain is highly unlikely. So, some possible severe wind possible without the needed rainfall. I hope to be wrong about both. Want a half inch rain and no destructive winds.
I was just about to come post a little about it. Busy time of the year for me, haven't given it much focus yet.
First, just take a gander at this NAM sounding for eastern Oklahoma tonight.
CAPE over 4000, downdraft CAPE over 1200. Holy hell that'll bring some wind with it. Those lapse rates too...going from 74 at the surface to getting to freezing at 600 mb. This line is going to put on a show tonight. Hail + huge wind risk right there as the line actually organizes into a line.
For us down here though, it's not nearly as nasty. We're going to be removed some from both the surface low and the same levels of cold air aloft. It also will be coming through early morning. Not a lot of shear on either NAM or HRRR but enough convective potential to keep an eye on. Bowing sections will obviously have severe wind potential and the lapse rates aren't bad aloft, so it's not nothing. Probably worth a slight risk down into this area. It's hard to know just how a line like this will progress, we've seen a few times recently some convective complexes produce a lot farther than expected.
Keep an eye on the radar trend before bed and expect some rumbles in the morning.
I need the weather for dummies translation, please.
Post by thermalwind on Apr 28, 2020 10:34:09 GMT -6
The short version is there's a lot of convection potential which makes thunderstorms but the things that make a line of storms more likely to be severe are up in eastern Oklahoma vs what will be over us tomorrow. The driving force for the line when it gets down here will be a weak cold front and the outflow from the line. So it shouldn't be widespread severe down here but there's potential the models have underdone it, so we need to watch.
Post by thermalwind on Apr 28, 2020 13:34:12 GMT -6
Appetizer convective system before the main course tonight north of here?
Strong convection happening, might out out enough of a cold pool to start propagating eastward more. Shear is low for anything more organized than that.
Appetizer convective system before the main course tonight north of here?
Strong convection happening, might out out enough of a cold pool to start propagating eastward more. Shear is low for anything more organized than that.
Its a yummy looking appetizer. I'll take it!
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”