How long are we going to pretend a squall line isn't coming?

I have checked here multiple times a day waiting for someone to mention something. Thank you for being that person.

The only thing I can think of is, maybe because this is more of a wind threat vs tornado, people are not talking about it? Or, Maybe because SELA is in a Marginal Risk? I don't know, but I'm glad it has finally been brought up!

I was just about to come post a little about it. Busy time of the year for me, haven't given it much focus yet. 

First, just take a gander at this NAM sounding for eastern Oklahoma tonight. 



CAPE over 4000, downdraft CAPE over 1200. Holy hell that'll bring some wind with it. Those lapse rates too...going from 74 at the surface to getting to freezing at 600 mb. This line is going to put on a show tonight. Hail + huge wind risk right there as the line actually organizes into a line.

For us down here though, it's not nearly as nasty. We're going to be removed some from both the surface low and the same levels of cold air aloft. It also will be coming through early morning. Not a lot of shear on either NAM or HRRR but enough convective potential to keep an eye on. Bowing sections will obviously have severe wind potential and the lapse rates aren't bad aloft, so it's not nothing. Probably worth a slight risk down into this area. It's hard to know just how a line like this will progress, we've seen a few times recently some convective complexes produce a lot farther than expected. 

Keep an eye on the radar trend before bed and expect some rumbles in the morning. 

I need the weather for dummies translation, please.

Your rain thoughts? TX.

SPC expanded the MDT Area and now all of my family in Texas is included in it!

What's up with the line of storms headed our way now?? Have y'all looked at the radar?

Its a yummy looking appetizer. I'll take it!