Post by grisairgasm on Jul 22, 2020 13:42:54 GMT -6
Maybe a minor coastal flood watch at some point. More of a combination between stiff E n SE high pressure breeze and the storm itself. Heavy rainfall is always a possibility but looks more like a SW LA Texas issue. This disturbed area remains very unorganized and has scattered areas of convection and multiple areas of competing vortices. Even if this winds up being a depression today, imo a TS would not form until tmrw. We are getting to the point where the Gulf is a serious player. Sometimes unexpected strengthening can happen quickly. To me, this still has the classic early season look and genesis difficulty. I think Friday will be interesting and I would prepare for a TS in and around the coasts of SW LA and parts of Texas..Diurnal max tonight may help get things going for tomorrow.
I'm much more concerned with this than normal because 1. Gulf waters are extremely warm, 2. The upper level wind shear is quite favorable and decreasing further, it may eventually have a nice little anti-cyclone over the top of it, 3. It has a few days before striking land to organize.
Post by grisairgasm on Jul 22, 2020 15:47:01 GMT -6
Like I said earlier it's a mess right now. Obviously hard to find a center. Very curious about tonight n tmrw. I think we may see something finally really looking tropical upon approach to the coast. I'll gladly take another early season dud though. I do believe parts of Texas need some rain. Anyway, I'm going with the first real TS into Texas on this one. I think there is an outside chance of some last minute intensifying as it nears land and a little more than expected. Real storms have been void thus far and that streak will end anyday now here as it is in the open Atlantic.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service New Orleans LA 407 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
LAZ040-058-060>062-064-066>070-072-MSZ080-081-230515- /O.NEW.KLIX.CF.Y.0005.200723T1200Z-200725T0000Z/ St. Tammany-St. John The Baptist-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson- Orleans-Upper St. Bernard-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche- Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard- Southern Tangipahoa-Hancock-Harrison- 407 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Persistent east to southeast winds 15 to 25 mph through Friday are expected to produce tide levels 1 to 2 feet above normal during the high tide cycles Thursday and Friday, mainly along east and southeast facing shorelines.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
As long as it can get going at the surface and keep the dry air out, this thing may take off. Upper level conditions are favorable for development and it has plenty of time over water. I'm anxious to see how this 2020 invest will work against the models. Will it have a mind of its own?