HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread

After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

Thanks, I hate it. ☹

My hotspot connection this morning is very poor....was it due to land interaction?

Any ideas on how big the High Pressure is out in the Atlantic? I see by August 12th, the High Pressure in the Atlantic extends as far west as the Eastern US and thereby has the potential to push hurricanes possibly in Gulf. My question is "How big will this High Pressure be?" Could it be that storms blowing up off of Africa's coast will go northward in front of the High Pressure and out to sea in the Atlantic Ocean or will these storms be forced to stay under the high pressure until it trek's all the way across ocean into our neck of the woods?

The chances of 92L have dropped a bit.


Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in
organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are
expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form during that time frame. The system is forecast to
move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could
bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late
Wednesday, regardless of development. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

CFS is forecasting developing into August recurve tracks