TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread)

Whatever happened to the good ole days of the Sears catalog and phone book in a hurricane kit?

Since this one is closer to home, here's the graphic I just posted on our FB page:

ICON has 97L going to the tip of the Yucatan. My Dad always said often storms that did that are bad for Louisiana. I know we're not giving a bunch of credence to that model as it has not performed well this year - hoping that holds true.

A vast majority of Gulfcoast cat 3 and greater actually achieve their maximum intensity close to home .Most are homegrown or MDR cruisers that get powerful near the Yucatán channel, far W Caribbean, and Florida straights. Camille is a great example of a four day hurricane that was just a wave 3 days earlier S of Cuba. Katrina, Rita and soooo many more got their octane and good environment in and around the Gulf. Never turn your back on anything in the Gulf. Point is a lot of these storms take on a new life when they get near us. Regardless of what they are or where they initially were.

If 97L makes it to the Yucatan Channel without much land interaction, it's hard for me to find a reason there will not be periods of rapid intensification... especially if it already has at least a broad core. Conditions look pretty ripe ahead of him/her.

Welcome to late August...good(or not good) to see everyone on the board, HA!

Certainly would be keeping a wary eye on Invest 97L as we head towards late week/this weekend.

These "sleeper" systems always bear closer watching if they find more favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean..

Key with this system looks to be genesis/formation. *IF* it can fend off the dry air the next 2-3 days on it's approach to the Western Caribbean, I would put the development chances higher than the current 50% from the National Hurricane Center. 

IF system does indeed form, a stronger system would tend to be turned more poleward/northward towards the Gulf of Mexico as we head into late weekend. Weaker system/tropical wave may fizzle completely as it heads more westward into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Lots of model watching in the days ahead! Would definitely have that hurricane safety kit/supplies stocked up as we head into the peak of the season, just in case.

EDIT: meant to put this in the main tropical thread...